【作者】 陈娜；

【导师】 刘玲利；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 工商管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,世界主要经济体的债务危机和债务问题引起了广泛关注,在我国,随着社会的经济飞速发展,城市规模不断扩大,地方政府的举债规模也在不断扩大,成为影响危机后时期我国经济复苏的主要困扰。虽然长期以来我国法律明文规定地方政府不得举债,但我国各地区、各层级的地方政府长期以来大都担负着不同程度的债务,已经成为不争的事实。如果不及时的对地方债务进行风险预警、防范、控制,很有可能爆发地方债务危机,从而影响当地经济的发展。因此,地方债务风险不但对我国基层经济安全构成威胁,而且不利于社会的稳定。随着政府经济政治体制改革的推进,对地方政府经济行为领域的研究已经很多,但有关地方政府债务预警体系的综合研究深度不够,且联系实际程度不够,也没有相应的与地方政府实际经济活动相联系的应用方向的研究。这不但不利于地方政府建设符合本地经济实际情况的预警机制,更不利于地方政府找到适合的解决问题的途径。M县政府作为基层行政机构,财力相对薄弱,由于多种原因举借,债务规模膨胀迅速。本文基于对M县债务现状、成因和影响的分析基础上,以M县基本财务数据为基础,详细描述了构建M县债务预警体系的过程。本文认为通过构建M县的债务风险预警体系,不但可以提高M县政府的风险危机意识,还可以使政府的债务危机被发现在初期阶段,留给政府足够的时间去采取有效措施应对危机,避免出现财政危机、金融危机,对于维护社会经济的健康发展,都具有十分重要的意义。本文首先对国内外研究状况进行了举例分析,提出了需要研究的问题。然后以M县近几年地方财政数据为基础,概述了M县债务风险的基本情况,重点分析了M县政府债务的构成,M县政府债务的成因以及影响。针对上述分析,从宏观角度探讨了债务风险预警体系构建的设计思路,其中应该根据有关设计原则设计适合本地区的债务风险预警体系流程,选取适合本地区的经济指标,采用多层模糊分析法建立债务预警体系,采用案例分析形式,通过已建立的政府债务风险预警体系分析M县政府债务风险状况,查看其风险水平以及其债务的可持续性。最后根据M县的实际情况,对解决M县政府债务问题从全面清查存量债务,积极化解现有债务风险；严控新增债务,建立健全政府债务监控体系；纳入预算管理,确保债务规范透明；加强绩效评价,强化审证,建立偿债责任制和责任追究制度几个方面提出了建设性的意见。本文研究的风险预警模型由于基础数据来源有限,统计资料不足,一些定性指标分析中的指标不能全部使用定量分析,一定程度上使预警的准确程度受到影响,在确定指标体系及预警界限时,部分以作者的主观判断为基础,评判标准的划分是否真的合理有效,都还需要在实践中进一步检验,但希望上述研究对今后M县政府债务风险研究工作提供一些有益的帮助和参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the social economic rapid development, the city continues to expand the scale of the government’s debt scale is expanding continually. As the crisis affect economic recovery period after the main trouble, the world’s major economies debt crisis and debt caused wide public concern. Although long-term laws in our country since the local government shall not debt, but China’s local, local government at all levels are long for the most different levels of debt, has become a fact of life in time if not the place to debt risk early warning, prevention and control, is a possible outbreak of local debt crisis, which affects the development of local economy. Therefore, local debt risk not only on China’s economic security a threat, and against the stability of the society.With the government’s economic and political system reform, the local government economic behavior field has a lot of, but the local government debt warning system of the comprehensive research of depth is not enough, and with practice degree is not enough, and no corresponding and local government are associated with the actual economic activity applied research. This not only against the local government in conformity with local economic construction of the actual situation of the early warning mechanism, the more against the local government to solve problems. The author based on the above the weak link in the case analysis. Debt risk early warning system not only can increase the risk of local government crisis consciousness, still can make the government’s debt crisis was found in the bud, leaving the government enough time to take effective measures to deal with the crisis, to avoid the financial crisis, to maintain the healthy development of the social economy, have very important sense.M local governments at the county level as the basic unit power, money relatively weak, and due to a variety of reasons to be borrowed, debt scale expanding quickly. This paper to M county in recent years local financial data as the foundation, first summarizes M county place the basic situation of the debt risk, and analyses the M county, the composition of the local government debt, M county of local government debt cause and effect, then based on the above-mentioned problems, from the macroscopic Angle discusses the debt risk early warning system construction of the design idea, should according to the relevant design principle design for this area of debt risk early warning system process. Selection for this area of economic indicators, and constructs the execution system, by using multi-level fuzzy analysis method to establish debt warning system. By using case after form, has been established through the local government debt risk early warning system analysis M county local government debt risk status, check the risks to the province and its level of debt sustainability, and the county government debt of M to avert forward the constructive Suggestions.This paper due to material limited, only the M county local government debt risk simulation warning, but China is a large country, governments around the world situation is different, this paper local government debt risk early warning model is suitable for all the local government, pending further study, but at least this paper expounds local government debt risk early warning route choice, hope to promote local government debt risk early warning research be role.更多还原