【作者】 吴刚；

【导师】 林琳；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 工业工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 在当今开放的经济环境中,汇率问题居于各种变量的核心地位。因为汇率问题是各种经济变量不同程度体现,是各种变量对冲的结果。汇率问题还是贯穿一国经济的一条重要线索。在汇率问题上任何一点微小的变动都会由此而引发一场从外到内的变革。从生产到生活、从宏观到微观,从各个方面、各个层次对经济的运行均会产生深刻而又广泛的影响。故而汇率政策一直被各国政府作为工作的重中之重,当作是协调与平衡国内外经济的重要手段。就当前全球普遍低迷的经济现状而言,人民币汇率问题开始更多的牵动世界经济的神经,持续增长的对外贸易,大量的贸易顺差,加上美日等国的外部压力,使得我国人民币的升值开始成为一种必然。立足于我国的基本国情,在当今特定的经济环境之下,如何看待我国未来的长远发展,如何引导我国出口外贸企业面对人民币汇率的变革,将是本文研究的重点。本文的论证过程将运用大量的理论分析并辅助一些实证分析,从中国商品现有的出口弹性现状出发,透过现象把握本质,得出人民币升值是否对我国外贸企业造成一定的阻力,取决于实际有效升值的幅度。此外,本文还将透过当今的时代背景,分析我国所要采取的调控政策及方法,从不同的方向不同的角度通过对比得出结论,为我国出口贸易在汇率制度的变动下的发展提出相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In current open economic environment, the exchange rate issue holds a core status among various variations, because it represents various economic variations and is the result of them. It is also an important clue throughout a country’s economy. Its any tiny change may lead to a reformation from outside to inside. From production to life, from macro to micro, any aspects or levels of economic activities may have a profound and widespread impact. Therefore, the exchange rate policy has been regarded by governments as the most important task to coordinate and balance the domestic and foreign economy. In terms of the current globally downturn economy, RMB exchange rate begins to increasingly affect the nerves of the world economy. The continuing growth of foreign trade, the large trade surplus and the external pressure from America and Japan make the appreciation of RMB become a necessity. Based on China’ s basic national conditions, the focus of this paper is how to look at China’ s long-term development in the future and how to guide China’ s export and foreign trade enterprises to confront the RMB exchange rate reformation in current particular economic environment. The demonstration process of this paper will use a large number of theoretical and empirical analyses. Starting from the current situation of export flexibility of Chinese goods and to grasp the essence from the phenomena, this paper obtains that whether RMB appreciation will cause some resistance on China’ s export enterprises depends on the degree of the real effective appreciation. Besides, this paper will analyze that different countries adopted different economic policies facing different economic backgrounds in different historical periods, compare their results and then put up with advices by vertical and horizontal comparisons of China’ s exchange rate and export trade.更多还原