【作者】 张志明；

【导师】 姚海明；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 从20世纪以来我国的宏观调控模式越来越由直接模式向间接模式转变,货币政策发挥的作用也就越来越大,但货币政策在实施过程中“有效性”问题一直是学术界探讨的重点,我国“货币政策目标是保持货币币值稳定,并以此促进经济增长”。市场化和经济全球化背景下出现的问题给我国货币政策造成了巨大的冲击,其中大规模的短期资本涌入、加之巨额贸易顺差,使得中国的国际收支双顺差。由于央行采取结售汇制度,并为了维护汇率的稳定,进行外汇冲销而投放大量基础货币导致外汇占款的增加,货币供给的增加使我国流动性增强,造成物价上涨,通货膨胀的压力越来越大,对其他宏观经济变量亦造成一定影响。外汇储备的快速增长影响了我国货币政策的独立性和有效性。本文在回顾了相关理论和研究成果的基础上,详细阐述了外汇储备对货币政策影响的一般机制,并从规范和实证两个方面论述了外汇储备对我国货币政策的影响。而且以2005年汇率改革为分界点研究两个阶段外汇储备对货币政策有效性的影响,得出汇改之后我国外汇储备依旧增长迅速,但是经常项目余额开始降低;外汇储备是M1的格兰杰原因,对我国的通货膨胀有一定效应;同时对比汇改前后的两个阶段,发现随着央行可利用对冲措施的减少,我国货币政策的有效性在降低;汇率改革基本没有提高我国的货币政策有效性。鉴于以上结论,本文也提出了一些相应的措施加强我国的货币政策有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the 20th century, China’s macro-control mode getting from direct to indirect mode, and the role of monetary policy will become increasingly important, but the effectiveness of monetary policy in process of monetary policy has been discussed in academic circles focus. The context of economic globalization has caused tremendous shock to the monetary policy in our country, such as the massive influx of short-term capital and the huge trade surplus. As foreign exchange settlement system and to maintain exchange rate stability, the Central Bank put a lot of base money in the market, and the foreign exchange sterilization increase of money supply. The increase of money supply increase our liquidity, resulting in rising prices, increasing inflationary pressure and also some impact on other macroeconomic variables. The effectiveness and independence of monetary policy has been weakening.This paper first elaborates on the mechanism between foreign exchange reserves and the monetary policy based on domestic and international research results, elaborate the impact of foreign exchange reserves on the general mechanism of monetary policy. And from both normative and empirical point of view discussion of the impact of foreign exchange reserves on monetary policy. Exchange rate reform in 2005 as a dividing point, study the impact of foreign exchange reserves to the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Two-stage. And the conclusion is: the foreign exchange reserves are still growing rapidly, the current account balance began to reduce; foreign exchange reserves are the granger causes of the M1 and has some effect on the inflation; Compared the two-stage exchange reform, lack of the central bank hedging measures reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy. In view of these conclusions, we also present some corresponding measures to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy.更多还原