【作者】 张燕；

【导师】 雷敏；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 统计学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 近几十年来,尤其是上个世纪九十年代以来,迅速膨胀起来的金融资产和各种金融衍生工具给整个世界经济带来了巨大活力。虚拟经济作为与实体经济相对应的概念是社会分工和科学技术发展到一定阶段的产物。它和实体经济这两种经济形态构成了现代经济体系的新格局。虚拟经济在聚集社会资金、分散企业经营风险、扩大国民经济规模、增加社会就业等方面起着越来越重要的作用。然而,虚拟经济这柄双刃剑一方面使资源得到更有效地配置,促进经济的增长；另一方面它的内在不稳定性又蕴藏着巨大的风险。它的过度发展不仅会扭曲资源配置方式,降低资源配置效率,而且还可能会演变成泡沫经济甚至酿成金融危机,历史上数次金融经济危机(比如远至欧洲货币危机、墨西哥金融危机、亚洲金融危机、俄罗斯货币危机等)即是证明。因此,深入研究我国实体经济与虚拟经济之间的关系及其运行规律,防范和化解金融风险,促进我国实体经济与虚拟经济健康、平稳、快速的发展将显得尤为必要。基于此,本文旨在通过探究我国实体经济与虚拟经济的内在关系,希望能以此为政策层面调控虚拟经济的发展,提供一个可供参考的方向。一、本文的研究视角本文将立足于我国资本市场来探究两者之间的关系。其原因主要有二：一是资本市场作为虚拟经济最主要的组织形态,它涵盖了虚拟经济所有的主要特征,是虚拟经济系统中发展最为成熟的部分,也是其它虚拟经济形态运行的基础。二是资本市场的发展主导着虚拟经济的发展,对带动虚拟经济步入发展阶段、推动虚拟经济高速增长、规定虚拟经济未来发展方向都起着异常重要的作用。二、本文的主要内容第一章为导论部分。首先分析了本文的研究背景与意义；然后综述了国内外研究现状；最后介绍了本文的研究方法、研究思路及主要特色。第二章为实体经济与虚拟经济关系的理论概述。界定了实体经济与虚拟经济的内涵、虚拟经济的特征；从能动性以及内在联系方面分析了两者之间的关系。第三章为论文的核心内容,共分四个部分。首先对我国实体经济与虚拟经济之间的关系进行了描述统计分析；其次,对两者在总量方面的关系进行了计量分析,再次,从部门构成也即是两者的结构方面利用灰色关联分析法对其关系进行了进一步探索；最后,利用虚拟经济理论已有的研究成果,在货币循环流模型的基础上,对我国货币流通速度进行了重新估算,并在此基础上对我国实体经济与虚拟经济之间的关系进行了更深入的刻画。第四章是理论联系实际的部分。在前面三部分论述的基础上,从扩展层面具体论述促进我国实体经济与虚拟经济良性互动发展的途径和战略选择。第五章是全文的结束语。主要是从研究结论、本文研究的不足以及进一步研究的方向三个方面对全文进行了总结梳理。三、本文的特色笔者认为本文的特色在于：第一,与以往仅仅立足于股票市场来研究虚拟经济的分析视角不同的是,本文是基于整个资本市场展开研究。在刻画虚、实经济的关系时,综合考虑了股市、债市、期市等,从而比单独考虑股市来衡量虚拟经济发展情况更为完善和准确。第二,通过在以往对两者发展规模研究的基础上,进一步升华为研究两者之间内部构成之间的关系,即本文讨论了虚拟经济各部门(包括股票市场、债券市场、期货市场等)以及实体经济各部门(包括工业、农业、建筑业等)之间相互影响关系,分离出了对虚拟经济以及实体经济影响最为重要的部门。从而更深入地探究了两者之间的具体联系,避免了已有研究中仅仅利用几个宏观经济指标来衡量两者关系的不足。同时,根据耦合协调理论计算出了在我国经济发展的不同周期,实体经济与虚拟经济之间的关联程度,为在我国经济发展不同阶段的国家宏观调控政策提供了重要的指导思路。第三,在虚拟经济已有研究成果的基础上,根据加入虚拟经济以后的货币循环流模型,对我国货币流通速度进行了重新估算,并在此基础上对实体经济与虚拟经济之间的协调性做了进一步分析。四、本文的主要结论1、我国实体经济与虚拟经济在总量上具有长期均衡关系,两者互相促进,互为因果。但两者之间的影响是非对称的,虚拟经济对实体经济的影响要比实体经济对虚拟经济的影响大。实证结果尚不能支持虚拟经济偏离实体经济是一种常态的观点,而是实体经济与虚拟经济在互动中增长。目前,还没有足够证据证明我国实体经济与虚拟经济出现了偏离。虚拟经济有害论观点站不住脚,虚拟经济的增长并未对实体经济造成破坏性扰动,相反,虚拟经济促进了实体经济的发展。2、总体上我国实体经济与虚拟经济在结构方面的关联性较强。从虚拟经济结构方面考察,股票、债券市场对实体经济的影响优于基金、外汇市场。从实体经济结构方面考察,工业、交通运输仓储业、批发零售业与虚拟经济的关系比较显著。我国实体经济与虚拟经济关联度波动频繁,大部分位于0.65至0.89之间。其次在我国经济发展的不同阶段,实体经济与虚拟经济耦合的强度存在差异。1998年到2000年关联度是缓慢下降的,2001年到2002年关联度呈现缓慢上升趋势,2003年到2008年经历了上升、下降、上升的过程。3、基于货币循环流模型对我国实体经济与虚拟经济协调性检验表明,第一,我国虚拟经济的货币流通速度高于实体经济的货币流通速度。除1993、2000-2001和2006—2008年外,其余年度Vspt/Vpt比值均大于1。第二,当我国股市行情越好时,虚拟资产在整个经济体系中的比重增加,虚拟资产价格也随之上升,表现在图形中即为虚拟经济与实体经济关系的量化指标βt值与市盈率与股价指数的变动具有相当的一致性,几乎是同步变化。第三,我国实体经济与虚拟经济的关系在1994—1999,2005—2007年间处于基本正常的发展状态。而在1993、2000-2004和2007-2008年我国实体经济与虚拟经济的协调性发展欠佳,其主要表现在股市资金大进大出,给经济的稳定增长和虚实经济的协调发展带来了不利冲击。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent decades, Especially since the nineties of the last century, Rapid expansion of financial assets and a variety of financial derivative instruments has brought great vitality to the world economy. As corresponds to the concept of real economy, fictitious economy is the product of social division of labor and scientific and technological development to a certain stage. Fictitious economy and real economy constitute a new Patten of modem economy system.一、The study perspective of this dissertationThis paper will explore the relationship between real economy and fictitious economy based on our country’s capital market. There are two reasons:First, capital market, as the most important organizational form of fictitious economy, it not only covers all the main features of fictitious economy and is the most mature part of it, But it is also the basis of other economy forms. Second, the development of capital market dominates the fictitious economy and plays an important part in driving fictitious economy into development stage, promoting it rapid growth and guiding the future direction of the fictitious economy.二、The main structure of this dissertationThe first chapter is introduction. In the first, analyze the background and significance; Secondly, summarize the research situation; thirdly, introduce the research method、research ideas and main features.The second chapter is overview of the dissertation. Defines the connotation of real economy and fictitious economy, the characteristics of fictitious economy; analyze relationship between real economy and fictitious economy from the initiative and intrinsic ties.The third chapter is the core content of the dissertation. It can be divided into four parts. Firstly, analyze the relationship between two with descriptive statistics. Secondly, quantitatively analyze the relationship on aggregate between the two. Once again, their relationship is further explored by use of gray from the spectral composition that is also the structure of both. Finally, by using the recent theory research, re-estimates the flow speed of currency of our country on the basis of money circulating flow model. And on this basis, make further study of the relationship between real economy and fictitious economy.The fourth chapter is part of the theory with practice. On the basis of previous tree parts, specifically discuss the approach and strategic choice of promoting the development of positive interaction of real economy and fictitious economy from the expansion level.The fifth chapter is conclusion. Summary and card the paper Mainly from the findings of this study、under-research、and further research direction三、The innovation of this dissertationFirstly, the past research is made on the basis of stock market, while this article has a different perspective of analysis. This article is based on a study on the capital market. In the characterization of the relationship of the real and fictitious economy, this article comprehensively considerate the stock market, bonds market, future market and so on, so it is more perfect and precise to measure the development of fictitious economy than singly consider the stock market.Secondly, on the basis of study of the scale of development in the past, further study the relationship in the internal structure of the two. Explore the relationship between various departments of fictitious economy(including the stock market, bond market, futures market) and kinds of sectors(including industry, agriculture, construction, etc),and then isolate the most important sectors that impacts the fictitious and real economy. So as to more deeply explore the specific links between the two, avoiding use just a few macro-economic indicators to measure the relationship between the two in the existing research. Meanwhile, according to coordination theory, calculate the degree of association between the two in different cycles of our economy. So it provides important guidance ideas for China’s economic development in different stages of national macro-control policies.Thirdly, by using the recent theory research, re-estimates the flow speed of currency of our country on the basis of money circulating flow model. And then make further study of the relationship between real economy and fictitious economy.四、The main conclusions of this dissertationFirstly, China’s real economy and the fictitious economy have a long-run equilibrium relationship in the aggregate, they promote each other, reinforce each other. However, the impact of each other is not symmetry; the fictitious economy’s impact on the real economy is greater than real economy’s impact on the fictitious economy. The empirical results can’t support the view that fictitious economy is a deviation of real economy, but they develop rapidly in the interaction promotion. At present, there is no sufficient evidence to prove that China’s real economy and the fictitious economy has deviated from each other. The point of view that fictitious economy is harmful can’t is less reasonable.on the contrary, the fictitious economy promotes real economy.Secondly, in the whole, China’s real economy and fictitious economy has a strong correlation in structure. From the structure of fictitious economy, stocks, bonds play greater important part in promoting real economy than funds, foreign exchange market. From the structure of real economy, industrial, transportation and warehousing, wholesale and retail have more close relationship with fictitious economy.The volatility of associated degree between China’s real economy and fictitious economy is frequent, most are located between 0.65 and 0.89. Second, at different stages of China’s economic development, there are differences that the real economy coupled with the fictitious economy. From 1998 to 2000 correlation is slow down, from 2001 to 2002 correlation show a moderate degree of an upward trend while from 2003 to 2008; it experienced an increase, decrease, up process.Thirdly, Based on Circular-flow model, the test of coordination of China’s real economy and fictitious economy show as follows, first, the velocity of money in China’s fictitious economy Vspt is higher than the velocity of money in the real economy Vpt. In addition to 1993,2000-2001 and 2006-2008, the rest of the year, Vspt/Vpt ratios are greater than 1. Second, when China’s stock market develop well, the proportion of the fictitious asset in the whole economic system increase and the asset price will also rise, reflected in the graph shall be quantitative indicatorsβ1、surplus rates and changes in the Shanghai index has a fairly consistent, almost synchronous changes. Third, the relationship between China’s real economy and the fictitious economy develop in the basic state in the years 1994-1999,2002-2005 normal. While in 1993,2000-2001 and 2006-2008, the co-ordination of China’s real economy and fictitious economy is in bad situation, it mainly embody that funds in the stock market emerge great changes in quantities, which has brought adverse impact to the steady growth of real economy and the coordinative development of real and fictitious economy.更多还原