【作者】 李芳；

【导师】 胡昊； 史小宁；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 无水港,作为搭建内陆城市与港口之间运输捷径的媒介,一方面缓解了港口由于集装箱堆压带来的集卡进出港排队拥堵现状,另一方面构建了内陆运输的新途径,为综合内陆运输资源、优化运输网络提供了新选择。无水港,类似于运输网络中的集散枢纽点,运输需求点(内陆进出口城市)类似于运输网络中的节点,如何构建完善的运输网络使得进出口货物在需求节点、无水港、港口之间运输流转的效率和效益最大化,在这过程中,需求节点和港口的位置已固定,从而无水港选址成为构建综合运输网络以及发挥无水港功能和作用的关键。通过分析无水港选址的特性,本文将其与logit概率模型结合起来,用logit效用函数表示货主对无水港设施的选择行为,投资者通过改变影响货主选择行为的效用影响因素,提高设施的吸引力,从而提高设施选址带来的利润率。基于logit效用函数,其影响因素包括方案特性和决策主体的特性,本文分别将两种特性的因素纳入两个子模型考虑,建立客观的logit选址模型和主观的logit选址模型,分别用于预测无水港候选址的运输需求分配。在第一个模型中,本文考虑无水港候选址的客观影响因素,而第二个模型考虑无水港使用人,即货主的主观满意度。继而将以上两种模型的结果按一定权重加和,得到每个候选址基于主客观因素综合考虑的运输需求配额,比较其大小进行选址,预测值最大的即被选为无水港建设点。本文将新建的选址模型应用在云南省内的无水港选址分析中,实证分析指出:是否为集装箱中心站和候选址的通达性两个因素都是影响一个城市是否适宜建设无水港的重要条件。鉴于我国内陆城市争相建立无水港的积极性,本文模型结果建议:内陆城市应当加强当地的集装箱网络建设,提高集装箱管理水平,疏通集装箱运输通道,扩大其集装箱通达性,才能从根本上增强自己建设无水港的竞争力。本文基于logit效用函数建立的选址模型,将主观与客观相结合,为无水港的选址提供了新思维。考虑候选址的客观因素保证了建立无水港的可行性,而调查货主的主观满意度则保证了无水港运营的市场收益性。主客观预测值按照不同的权重组合,适宜于不同的现实需求。此模型也可用于类似无水港选址特性的中小区域范围内其他设施的选址。更多还原

【Abstract】 As economy is being globalized in these years, containertransportation has become the pillar of whole economic development,supporting trades among world countries. From the prospective of bilateraltrade benefit, container transportation is required to be fast and steady;from public prospective, it should be convenient and environmental.However, the whole transportation net is complicated in its broad demanddistribution, which hinder an healthy development of containertransportation.The basic problem should be resolved by optimizing thewhole net, to realize an utmost efficiency. Dry port, alleviating operationpressure in seaport as well as generating inland resources, offers anabsolute good way to realize this objective. Dry port can be regarded as andistribution center of the whole transportation net, while demand areas canbe deemed as nodes. Then we can redescribe the problem as how to chooselocation of dry port in the whole net to improve its efficiency.Nevertheless, dry port construction consumes huge investment, andfull consideration can never be neglected. Dry port location, has bothcharacteristics of public location and competitive location. From ancompetitive prospective, one location has to attract as large transshipmentas possible to compete other candidates, which takes shippers’ choicebehaviour into consideration. The thesis employs logit theory to buildutility function of candidate, from which investors can gain mosttransshipment by regulating related factors. An empirical analysis in thisthesis shows that container operation and accessibility of one candidate aretwo of quite important factors.The main contribution of this thesis is building a new model with logit to solve dry port’s location selection problem, based on both objectiveand subjective consideration. To begin with, this thesis constructs two logitprobability model, based on subjective and objective factors, respectively,to predict freight demand allocation of each candidate. And then those twopredictions are combined according to an weights’proportion, to derive thefinal transshipment each candidate can attract. By comparing thetransshipment, the biggest one is suggested to be the proper dry portlocation. In this model, considering objective factors proves the feasibilityof building dry port, while taking shippers’ satisfaction into account in thesubjective logit factors lays an market foundation for dry port construction.And different proportion between two weights cater to different practicalrequirements. At last, this model is verified through an case study,choosing a dry port in Yunnan province, from the result of which, thisthesis try to make some suggestions for dry port construction in China.更多还原