【作者】 闫玉林；

【导师】 胡奕明；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 工商管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 在过去的十多年中,中国的有机硅消费量的年增长率超过了30%,需求的迅猛增长,推动了有机硅行业的快速发展,一批上下游厂商脱颖而出。伴随着中国资本市场的快速发展,有机硅行业的上下游龙头企业纷纷登陆股票市场,以期在拓宽融资渠道的策略下,在历史机遇中占得先机。在国家经济发展模式转型的大背景下,新材料行业作为战略新兴产业的重点,将成为这些有机硅上市公司发展的重要推动力。本文就是以此为背景,希望利用攻读MBA期间学到的《财务会计》,《公司财务》,《证券投资》,《财务报表分析》,《估值分析》及其他背景知识,选择有机硅行业上市公司进行投资价值分析,选择投资标的,为投资决策提供参考。本文以新安股份等五家有机硅上市公司为例,从宏观经济形势,行业状况,公司发展战略及财务状况等自上而下地进行了分析。在此基础上,选择出有价值的潜在投资标的,利用贴现现金流模型和市盈率模型对其进行了估值分析。全文分为七章:第一章是有机硅行业的介绍,并阐明了选题的意义。第二章系统介绍了本文研究的理论框架。第三章是宏观经济分析和有机硅行业分析。本章分析了当前国内、国际的宏观经济形式,推动有机硅行业发展的宏观经济政策,及我国有机硅行业的现状,生命周期和市场竞争性。第四章是战略分析和财务分析。介绍了各家公司的发展战略.以2006-2010年财务年报为基础,对各公司进行了结构分析,趋势分析,财务比率分析和因素分析,探讨了有机硅上市公司的成功驱动因素。第五章是国内有机硅上市公司与国际有机硅巨头的财务比较。介绍了国际有机硅巨头在中国的发展战略,在可获得的财务数据基础上进行了比较,以找出国内有机硅公司与国际巨头之间的差距第六章是估值分析。运用贴现现金流模型与市盈率模型对新安股份进行了公司价值和股票价值的分析,得出了新安股份具有投资价值的结论。第七章是全文总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past 10 years, the silicone comsumption in China has been increased by more than 30%. The fast increase of demand caused the rapid development of silicone indurstry and a large amount of manufacturers emerged from upstream and downstream.Some of leading companies, with the build and development of China Capital Market, rushed to load stock market,in order to broaden their financing channels and catch the strategic opportunity. At the same time, under the background of the transformation of economy development model in China, that new material indurstry will be one of the strategic emerging indurstries is an important power to move these listed silicone companies to develop.Under this background, the Author try to use financial knowledge such as Fiancial Accounting, Corporate Finance, Security Investment, Financial Statement Analysis to analyze the investment value of the listed silicone companies, find investing aim and provide the investment decision. This thesis analyzes five listed silicone companies from aspects of macro-economy, industry situation, corporate strategy and finance, and then choose the valuable potential investing target to evaluate its value by using of Discounted Cash Flow Model(DCF) and Price to Earning Model(P/E).This thesis includes 7 chapters: In the first chapter, the silicone indurstry is introduced and significance of this research is clarified.In the second chapter, the theoretical framework of this research is discribed.In the third chapter, the thesis analyzes the macro-economy and the silicone indurstry. The macro-economy around the world and the economic policies to move silicone indurstry are discuessed in the part of macro-economic analysis. The silicone industry sitution, life-cycle, and market competition are clarified.In the fourth chapter, corporate strategies are first fully introduced, respectivly.Then, based on the fiscal reports of 2006-2010, financial data are studied in detail by the methods of structure analysis, trend analysis, financial ratios and component analysis. The driving fators of success of all 5 listed silicone companies are discussed.In the fifth chapter, the strategies in China of international silicone leading companies are summarized. And Chinese silicone companies and international silicon leading companies are financially compared to find their gaps.In the sixth chapter, Free Cash Flow to the Firm(FCFF) Model and P/E Model are used to estimate the corporate value and the stock value for XinAn GuFen.Valuation is compared for 5 different silicone companies. It is found that BlueStar NewMatrials and XinAn GuFen are worth investing.In the last chapter, the main points of the whole thesis are sumarized.更多还原