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环境、资源约束下的武汉市产业结构调整多目标优化研究

Study on the Multi-objective Optimization Models for the Industrial Structure Adjustment of Wuhan City

【作者】 陈庆

【导师】 周敬宣;

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 , 生态学, 2011, 硕士

【摘要】 武汉市“十二五”时期的发展既面临着许多机遇,也面临着资源供求矛盾和环境约束力进一步加剧的矛盾。因此,如何在保持经济发展的同时,尽量减少环境污染和能源资源的消耗,实现经济和环境的和谐共处和可持续发展成为了一个值得深思的问题。尽管各种环境污染治理技术日趋先进发达,但环境污染的微观治理效果却不尽如人意。这种背景下,产业结构调整成为控制资源消耗和环境污染的一条有效途径,也是国家和武汉市“十二五”发展的重要举措。但是,现有的关于产业结构调整的研究大部分是从经济学角度出发的,从环境和资源为出发点的研究主要停留在定性层面。另外,相关研究所指的产业结构一般是指三次产业之间的比例,鲜有涉及工业内部各行业具体规模的定量研究。本文从广义生态学这种生态环境治理理念出发,利用产业结构相关理论分析武汉市产业结构状况,而后分析资源环境状况;利用多目标优化方法,建立以经济发展和环境保护为目标,并受到污染物排放量和能源资源消耗量限制的武汉市工业内部结构调整模型;设定几种发展模式,利用模型分别计算对应的工业内部各行业的具体规模,以及相应的污染物排放量和能源及水资源消耗量;分析比较优化模型的计算结果,对武汉市“十二五”产业结构调整提供建议。本文主要结论简述如下:(1)武汉市产业结构的变化过程符合产业结构演进的一般规律,但主导产业缺乏区域竞争力;(2)在工业总产值规模维持不变时,通过调整工业内部各行业结构,可以同时实现经济效益的增加和污染排放及能耗和水耗的减少;(3)《武汉市“十二五”规划发展思路》中确定的工业总产值目标略微偏高,并且不宜将食品产业定位为武汉市“十二五”突破千亿的支柱产业;(4)在满足环境资源约束的前提下,要顺利实现相关规划中的经济指标,应该降低工业内部各行业单位产值的污染物排放及资源消耗;(5)对武汉市工业发展起限制性作用的主要环境资源因素是COD和二氧化硫环境容量,以及可用水资源量和可用能源量;氨氮环境容量和工业废水容量相对充足,对发展的制约作用较小。

【Abstract】 Wuhan city will be faced with many contradictions when it develops perosperously. Because micro- effect of environmental pollution treatment turn to be unsatisfying, the readjustment of the industrial structure has become an effective way to reduce resource consumption and environment pollutant.Based on the theory of ecology, this paper does some research on Industrial structure adjustment. Then some suggestions about the development of Wuhan city put forward. Both the leaders of our country and the government of Wuhan city pay much attention to this subject.Now a lot of research about readjustment of the industrial structure focus on economics, and some focusing on environment is just qualitative. The industrial structure usually refers to the proportion between the three industries.This paper combine qualitative with quantitative calculation. Based on the analysis of industrial structure evolution process and Environmental capacity, a multi-objective optimization model is set up. Then three different development pattern is put forward. The main contents and conclusions of this paper as follows:(1) The change of industrial structure conform to the general rule, while the leading industries are lack of regional competitiveness;(2) It`s possible to reduce pollutants and resource consumption, by means of adjustment of industrial Internal structure, while gross industrial output value doe not decrease;(3) In order to achieve the established goal, it`s better to reduce emission and resource consumption;(4) It`s different to the conclusion in the planning, that some industry is unable to act as a leading one;(5) Compared with the emission of industrial wastewater and ammonia nitrogen, the emission of COD and SO2, and resource consumption have more important impact on development.

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