【作者】 张伟；

【导师】 沈西挺；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国城市化进程的迅猛发展,人们对居住舒适度要求不断提高,建筑节能问题在我国变得日益突出,大型公共建筑以巨大的单位面积能耗引起人们的关注。降低能耗不但可以帮助企业降低成本,提高企业竞争力,而且也有助于社会经济的健康可持续发展。近年来,国家在节能减排方面制定了许多政策,大型公共建筑逐渐进入能耗动态监测阶段,对公共建筑能耗数据动态存储、数据分析、以及报表展示。然而,系统中缺少能耗负荷预测这一关键步骤,没有对能耗负荷数据准确的规划和配置。因此,有必要引入科学的方法来解决这一问题。论文所述的基于季节灰色预测理论的公共建筑节能领域能耗监测研究,是在山西公共建筑节能监测系统平台上做的预测研究,旨在构建具有预测与报警功能的公共建筑能耗监测平台,为节能措施的实施、节能政策的制定以及能耗负荷的规划和配置提供了科学的依据。论文在介绍此课题的研究背景和国内外的发展现状后,首先从山西能耗监测系统设计现状和特征结构进行分析,阐述了负荷预测算法在系统中引入的重要性以及可行性。进一步对典型的能耗预测算法进行了分析,根据负荷能耗影响因素和山西能耗系统历史数据特点,充分利用了灰色预测模型所需信息少、方法简单的优点和能耗历史数据具有明显的周期性的特点提出了基于季节灰色理论预测算法。此外,针对GM(1,1)模型在数据序列增长过快或下降过快时出现精度不高的情况,采用改善原始数据序列的光滑度来提高GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,并用GM(1,1)残差模型进行改进。最后将季节灰色理论预测算法应用到山西公共建筑能耗监测系统中,试验结果表明,论文提出的季节灰色预测模型简单便捷,预测精度比传统灰色预测模型精度高、误差小,可以为以后的大型公共建筑能耗监测系统的进一步完善提供参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the rapid development of urbanization in China, people have higher requirments for living condition, building energy problem in China is becoming more and more outstanding, large-scale public buildings with huge energy consumption per unit area, cause for people’s more concern. Reducing energy data can not only help businesses reduce costs and enhance enterprises competitiveness, but also contribute to social and economic healthy and sustainable development. In recent years, the national put forward a number of energy saving related policies, large-scale building gradually step into the energy dynamic monitoring phase, large public building energy data dynamic storage, data analysis and report shows. However, the system lack of forecasting, which is a key step to energy data accurate planning and allocation. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce scientific methods to solve this problem.Research in the energy monitoring field of public building based on seasonal grey forecast theory described in this paper is researched on the platform of energy management system in Shanxi, aimed at establishing a forecasting and alarm function of public building energy monitoring platform, providing a scientific basis for implementation of energy saving, making of energy politics, planning and configuration of energy consumption.Firstly, this paper introduces the research background of the subject and the development status at home and abroad. Secondly, describe the importance and feasibility of introducing forecasting algorithm in the system. Furthermore, analysis typical energy forecasting algorithm, according to the factors and the Characteristics of historical data and the historical data has obvious cyclical nature, proposed seasonal grey forcasting theory. Again, adopted improving smooth degree of data series to raise its precision on condition that GM(1,1) is with low precision when the date sepuence increased or decreased too quickly. Finally, the seasonal gray forcasting theory is applied to public buildings in Shanxi energy monitoring system, and the result show that the seasonal grey forcasting model that proposed with higher precision, than traditional model, can provide a reference value for further improvement of the large-scale public building energy monitoring system.更多还原