【作者】 李星；

【导师】 关龙；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 增加劳动力就业是一国经济和社会平稳发展的主要目标,众多理论和实践表明,对外贸易和就业之间存在着密不可分的联系。对外贸易在过去三十年来为我国的经济和社会全面发展做出了巨大的贡献,与此同时,它也成为了保持并促进中国就业稳定增长的主要力量。制造业作为主要出口行业近年来为我国大幅度增加了就业岗位,吸纳了众多闲置劳动力。因此以制造业为主要研究对象深入分析中国对外贸易与就业之间的联系、探讨贸易促进就业的作用机制和效应对有效解决中国就业问题是具有理论意义和现实意义的。要了解对外贸易和就业之间关系,首先需要从对外贸易对劳动力市场的影响机制的探讨开始,并由产出效应和替代效应两个方面分析对外贸易如何影响劳动力需求。产出效应是指贸易自由化将增大国内各个行业最终产品的需求,进而提高对劳动力的需求。替代效应指的是对外贸易的增加将使国内生产者获得更多种类的生产要素从而节省生产成本,外部的生产要素可以替代本国的劳动要素,也就是说生产要素的替代弹性的增加将使该行业的劳动需求弹性随之上升。继而结合中国改革开放和加入WTO组织之后的实际经验解释对外贸易对我国的出口产品结构和就业结构的转变。之后运用数据分析法和计量模型估算相结合的方法分析我国长期就业格局的变化趋势、以及2005-2008年中国制造业分细行业就业情况的分布以及其决定因素。最后结合分析结果提出结论并尝试性给出政策建议。通过理论和实证两个方面的研究,可以得出:第一、在现有贸易格局下,发展对外贸易在稳定就业增长显然有着正面的福利含义。第二、对外贸易影响就业的途径仍然是产出效应和替代效应。通过对计量经济模型的估算,就业的产出弹性的工资弹性分别为0.56和-0.5,即产出和工资每上升1%,就业人数会相应增加0.56%和下降0.5%。第三、对外贸易容易受外部冲击的特点决定了中国制造业乃至整体就业容易出现短期波动和冲击的现象。未来,通过适当调整贸易政策推动经济发展方式的转变和就业结构的调整,将成为中国解决就业问题的重点。因此,继续扩大出口以及适当控制工资水平的上升会对就业具有重要的促进作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Employment is the main object of economy development and social stability. Many theoretical and practical studies have suggested the important relationship between trade and employment. Trade has contributed much to the development of our society in the last thirty years, and at the same time, it also has been the main power to maintain and increase the employment. Manufacturing industry as the largest export industry has become the main source of employment. It has both practical and theoretical meanings to analysis the relationship between trade and employment in manufacturing industry.We first review the literature about the relationship between trade and employment, and then concentrate on the mechanism of how the trade affects employment from the effects of substitution and output. The output effect is that trade will lead to more demand for product and then cause the demand for labor increase. The substitution effect is that when wages rise, the industry substitutes away from labor towards other factors, and with higher costs the industry produces less output such that it demands less of all factors, including the labor. This paper considering the practical experience to explain the trade effects on the structure change of product and employment after Reform and Opening up and entering the WTO. Then we use the statistics and econometrics methods to analyze the tendency of long term employment and the determinants of industrial employment. At last we propose some conclusions and policies.Through theoretical and empirical analysis, we get the following conclusions. First, trade has positively effects on employment in the current trade structure. Second, the paths that trade affect the employment are still output effect and substitution effect. The results of the econometrics indicate that the elasticity of employment with respect to output and wages is respectively 0.56 and -0.5. That is when the output and wages rise 1%, the employment will rise 0.56% and decline 0.5% respectively. Third, that trade is apt to be affected by the external shock lead to the employment of manufacturing industry and even the whole employment to fluctuate. So expand the trade and keep the wage stable moderately will increase the employment.更多还原