【作者】 李响；

【导师】 康宇虹；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 金融， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 经过近三十年改革开放的洗礼,我国房地产市场出现供需两旺局面,房地产公司扩张速度不断火速升温,我国房地产行业已经成为了国民经济的重要支柱。然而,我国房地产行业起步较晚,仅还处于发展初期,其行为规范仍然还需要不断修正,不断完善。目前,我国房地产企业的资金来源结构存在不合理因素,其中大约有70%的资金来自于银行贷款,资产证券化,土地期权等金融手段运用不足,加之其自身行业集中度较低重资产,低周转率,资金需求量大等特性加重了地产行业区别于其他行业的财务及金融风险,给房地产企业带来了相当大的困境。因此,如何对房地产企业进行财务困境预警俨然已成了急需解决的问题。为了解决我国房地产上市公司财务预警的问题,本文详尽回顾了国内外学术界就相关问题的研究现状,介绍了企业财务困境以及财务困境预警流程的相关理论,总结出我国房地产上市公司要经历“界定-成因—判定—解决”的财务预警流程。在此基础上,本文深入分析了我国房地产企业的财务困境界定问题以及导致其财务困境的内外部因素,并由此运用非参数检验法和逐步判别分析法构建了符合我国房地产企业财务特点的Z值修正模型,同时选取三种常用检验方法对模型进行了检验,验证其适用性。以此为根据,对房地产2011年的财务状况进行了预测,并针对预测结果提出我国房地产上市公司应对财务困境的基本策略,最终形成一个完整的房地产上市公司财务预警体系,以解决我国房地产行业的财务困境风险防范的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to late start of chinese real estate business, the operation planning of is still in the early stages of development, even today the real estate industry still needs continue to improve and constantly revised. At present, there are some unreasonable factors in the funds structure of Chinese real estate companies. Because there is lack of financial means in Chinese real estate business, for example, asset securitization and land option, about 70% of funds depend on bank loans. It exist a risk of rupture funds. In addition, the different financial and accounting characteristics from other sectors (low concentration, heavy assets, and low turnover rate) has brought enormous crisis to the real estate business. Therefore, how to predict the financial risk has become one of important issues to be resolved.In order to resolve the issus of chinese real estate listed companies’financial prediction, fisrtly, this paper reviws problem of deternination of financial distress and financial methods in domestic and foreign academics, and indicats that the listed real estate companies needs be set out to go through the financial early-warning process "defined - Cause - how to decide - how to solve ". Secondly, after the basis of previous research, this paper introduces the theories and methods of financial predication, and indicates the reason that it chooses z value of the model as a method of fianncial prediction. Thridly, According to the traditional idea of Z-Score model and characteristics of Chinese real estate industry, this paper will reconstruct the new Z-Score model for the Chinese real estate enterprise financial prediction by re-observing the sensitive financial indicators. The new model realizes―two-years-ahead‖risk prediction to timely avoid financial crisis and difficulties caused to Chinese real estate companies. And it overcomes the limitation of the traditional financial variables and the neglect of various industry characteristics to contribute to a more stable business development. Finanlly, According to results of predictions, the paper sums up the basic real estate listed companies coping strategies, and ultimately forms a complete real estate listing company’s financial early warning system to address the financial difficulties of the real estate business to prevent problems.更多还原