人民币汇率变动对江苏省FDI流入影响的研究

【作者】 赵静；

【导师】 杨中军；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 人民币汇率变化对我国的经济发展有着重要的作用,汇率变动通过影响我国吸收外商直接投资的能力,间接对我国的经济发展产生作用。在我国引进外商直接投资的30年时间里,外商直接投资发展呈现出上升的态势,外商直接投资为我国带来的丰富的资金、技术和管理经验,对我国的经济发展产生了深远的影响。江苏省是引进外商直接投资的大省之一,在其多年的发展中深受外商直接投资的影响,如今,在人民币汇率形成机制改革的背景下,我国面临着人民币升值的巨大压力以及汇率波动的频繁增加,汇率势必会对国际资本流动产生一系列的影响。鉴于人民币汇率变动以及外商直接投资对我国经济、对江苏省经济所具有的重要影响,厘清人民币汇率对外商直接投资所产生的影响并结合江苏省的实际情况进行定性和定量研究显得十分有意义。文章首先界定了实际有效汇率以及外商直接投资的相关概念,并从理论角度,详细阐述了汇率变动对外商直接投资的影响；之后,通过定性分析的方法,归纳出人民币汇率水平及波动对江苏省外商直接投资的影响；接着,以江苏省外商直接投资为样本,采用计量经济学的方法具体测度汇率变动对外商直接投资所产生的影响。整个实证分为三部分,第一部分是以江苏省整体外商直接投资为样本,采用1994年-2009年人民币实际有效汇率以及江苏省外商直接投资的数据,建立VAR实证研究模型。第二部分分别对出口导向型和市场导向型FDI做实证分析以验证理论。第三部分是将江苏省划分为苏南、苏北、苏中三个区间,分别以这个三个区间的外商直接投资为样本,采用1994年-2009年内人民币实际有效汇率以及各区间外商直接投资的数据,建立VAR实证研究模型。得出结论：人民币实际有效汇率水平和江苏省FDI正相关,这表明人民币升值促进外商直接投资；与出口导向型FDI负相关,与市场导向型FDI正相关；人民币实际有效汇率水平与苏南苏中苏北的FDI流入均呈正相关,与总量的结果相同,但影响程度递减。苏南地区的FDI流入量与汇率波动正相关,苏中苏北则与汇率波动负相关。最后,在实证结论的基础上,就如何完善人民币汇率政策和引资政策提出建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 RMB exchange rate changes play an important role in China’s economic development. China’s exchange rate has a great influence on China’s ability of economic development by affecting foreign direct investment. In the 30 years after the introduction of foreign direct investment to China, FDI has shown an upward trend in development.FDI has brought a lot of funds, technical and management experience, which has a profound impact on China’s economic development. Jiangsu is one of the provinces that get the most FDI, and is affected deeply by FDI.Today, under the circumstances of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, China is facing tremendous pressure from RMB appreciation and exchange rate frequent fluctuations.The exchange rate will inevitably have a series of impacts on international capital flows. In view of the important influence that RMB exchange rate and FDI have on China’s and Jiangsu’s economy, It is very meaningful to clarify the impact that RMB exchange rate has on FDI,and do qualitative and quantitative research based on the actual situation in Jiangsu Province.This article first defines the concepts of real effective exchange rate and foreign direct investment and, from a theoretical perspective, describes the the impact exchange rate changes have on foreign direct investment; Then, by qualitative analysis, summarized the influence RMB exchange rate and volatility have on FDI in Jiangsu province; After that,FDI in Jiangsu Province as the sample, using econometric methods specificly measured the impact exchange rate changes have on FDI. The evidence is divided into two parts.The first took the overall FDI of Jiangsu Province as a sample, using RMB real effective exchange rate and FDI of Jiangsu Province data of 1985 -1993 and 1994 -2009, established VAR empirical research model, and reached a conclusion:In the first stage, the level of real effective exchange rate is negatively related to FDI, which means the devaluation of RMB increased FDI inflows. In the second stage the level of real effective exchange rate is positively related to FDI of Jiangsu Province, which indicates that appreciation of RMB promoted FDI, but this effect was not significant; The second part of the southern, middle and northern parts ofJiangsu Province.Using FDI of the three areas,and RMB real effective exchange rate from 1994 to 2009 an the samples,It established the VAR empirical research model, draw a conclusion:RMB real effective exchange rate is positively related to FDI inflows of the three areas, which is the same with the total result, but the extent of influence decreases. FDI of Southern Jiangsu is positively associated with exchange rate fluctuations, the other two regions are negatively related with exchange rate fluctuations. In the end, on the basis of the empirical conclusions, It made recommendations on how to improve the RMB exchange rate policy and foreign capital policy.更多还原