【作者】 兰江；

【导师】 李力；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 能源消费的快速增长是我国自改革开发以来,特别是入世以来GDP持续快速发展的动力。然而,当前我国人均现有储能并不丰富,且近年来能源供需矛盾日益突出,此外,能源消费结构也很不合理,因而,节能成为国家新世纪的重要战略举措。但是,通过提高能效真的能实现节能吗?自20世纪90年代以来,“Jevons悖论”引起了国外能源、经济、环保等领域学者的关注,且国外相关实证研究已很充分,而关于我国能源反弹效应尤其是分行业能源反弹效应尚缺乏实证分析。本文首先回顾了能源反弹效应相关文献,然后分析了能源反弹效应的相关理论,主要包括新古典经济增长理论和系统动力学理论,进而通过因果关系图分析反弹效应作用机制,并据此建立反弹效应测算模型,最后通过面板数据模型理论和相关测算模型,测算并分析我国五大类行业1994-2007年能源反弹效应,进而提出相关政策建议。实证研究结论表明:首先,技术进步对我国国民经济各行业带来积极影响。入世前,技术进步对农业和建筑业的影响力度较大;入世后,技术进步对交通运输、仓储和邮政业的影响作用最大。其次,我国五大类行业能源强度变化渐趋稳定,且在一定的范围内波动。再次,持续研发投入引起的能源效率提升对我国五大类行业的能源消耗量影响规模是不相同的。最后,1995-2007年我国五大类行业的能源反弹效应变动范围为20%-180%,且五大类行业均出现不同程度的“逆火效应”。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy consumption has been one of the key factors to keep our national economy with sustainable and rapid development since the reform and openness to the outside world, especially since China‘s accession to the WTO. However, our proven reserves per capita lefts a large gap compared to the world average level, and the increasingly serious contradiction between energy supply and demand proposes a great challenge to china‘s energy strategy in the new millennium. So, do increases in energy efficiency via technological improvement effectively reduce energy consumption?Since the 1990s, academic controversy on―Jevons paradox‖has aroused unprecedented concerns from scholars and researchers abroad in the field of energy economy, environmental protection, etc. However, empirical analysis on china‘s energy rebound effect by sectors is insufficient. Based upon the actual energy pressure, we firstly makes literature reviews, and then analyzes related theories on energy rebound effect including Neoclassical growth theory and system dynamics, and then we constructs casual loop diagram based on the mechanism of energy rebound effect, based on which, we further constructs rebound effect model, finally we makes empirical analysis on China‘s five industries during the period of 1994-2007, and corresponding measures are also proposed so as to better save energy.Conclusions are as follows through empirical research. First, technical progress plays a positive role in the five industries, that is, technical advance improves the development of the five industries. And influence on agriculture and construction is larger than other three industries from 1994 to 2000. And technical progress takes much more impact upon transportation, storage & postal services from 2001 to 2007. Second, energy intensity change shows that there is a steady trend on the five categories of trades, and the fluctuation is within some reasonable range. Third, the promotion of the energy efficiency due to sustainable R&D investment exerts different kinds of influence on energy consumption of five industries, and energy saving can be achieved in this industries. Finally, the estimation shows that the energy efficiency rebound effect of the five categories of industries ranges from 20% to 180% during the period of 1995 to 2007. And―backfire effect‖exists among the five industries to some extent.更多还原