【作者】 张莉；

【导师】 陈通；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【副题名】Based on Logistic Model

【摘要】 现代的市场经济环境中,资本市场对经济发展的作用非常重要,是经济发展的命脉,资本市场对现代经济的重要性主要表现在以下几个方面:首先,资本市场是融通资金的重要渠道。资本市场上金融产品高收益的特性吸引了众多的投资者的进入和闲置资金的进入,这些投资者在购买金融产品的同时,向市场中源源不断的输入闲置的资金,成为现在市场长期资金的重要来源。其次,资本市场的发展促进了资源的合理配置。最后,资本市场的存在促进了产业结构的优化升级。资金是有限的,资本市场的高风险特征也是人所周知,特别是在20世纪末的二十年间,通过一系列的现象,资本市场的高风险特性得到了表现。对于我国这样的一个政策性市场经济来说,证券公司受外部宏观经济风险的影响更甚,那么国内的证券公司要想在这样的市场情况下生存发展,如何防范和治理风险就是证券公司必须考虑的问题。在证券公司的日常经营管理中,只有构建适合证券公司自身的风险预警模型,并采取相应的措施,制定一定的政策,根据预警模型产生的信号采取必要的措施,对风险进行规避,将风险控制在证券公司的可控范围之内。只有这样,才能实现证券公司持续经营的目的,并有利于我国证券市场的长久繁荣发展。传统的风险预警模型的建立和预警指标体系的建立往往是根据公司的财务指标所建立的。单单从证券公司的财务报表出发所构建的指标体系和建立的风险预警系统存在着两大缺陷:选择的指标体系不够全面,风险预警系统所显示的预警信号不够及时有效。这违反了风险预警系统建立的系统性和全面性原则,所以传统的风险预警系统在预防公司的风险方面的有效性不高,建立新型的能够全面反映证券公司风险的预警系统势在必行。为了有针对性的弥补以上传统风险预警模型的不足,本研究在对传统的风险预警指标模型和指标体系进行充分研究和认识的基础上,首先对证券公司风险预警系统构建的原则进行探讨,继而,对风险预警系统的机构进行创新,将宏观经济风险考虑到证券公司风险预警,并进一步构建了新的证券公司风险预警系统创新应用模型。本文除了建立和构建新型的证券公司风险预警系统,对于传统的证券公司风险因素衡量、预警模型的建立和预警指标体系构建的理论和方法进行总结,并在此基础上,提出了方法上的创新,将宏观经济风险考虑到证券公司风险预警,并进一步构建了新的证券公司风险预警系统创新应用模型,并进行了实证分析,实证结果表明新的考虑了宏观经济风险的证券公司风险预警模型预警的准确率大大提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 In modern market economy environment,based on low-energy-consumption, low-pollution and low-emission. The key issue that the low-carbon economics focus is to use the energy with high efficiency, explore clean energy and pursue green GDP. The core of low-carbon economics is change, including change in energy technology, innovation for saving energy and reducing pollutants discharge, industrial restructuring, even the ideas and concepts regarding the existence and development of human beings.To achieve the objective of finding development paths for developments of low-carbon economics in China under background of climate change. Based on research results of many experts, the background from which low-carbon economics are proposed is analyzed at first. Data analysis regarding the energy production and consumption in China, including data regarding raw coal and crude oil, are introduced. From perspective of province level, resource curse effects resulted in over-independence on unclean energy are discussed. Combined with the advanced experience in other countries relating to the low-carbon economics development, national conditions are taken into consideration for proposing the development paths for China. After explanation for necessity of developing low-carbon economics and barriers of that, advices are introduced, including renovating traditional high-carbon industry, developing low-carbon technology; exploring clean energy and renewable energy; applying market mechanisms and economic leverage; enhancing global cooperation for reducing carbon discharge.. fter explanation for necessity of developing low-carbon economics and barriers of that, advices are introduced, including renovating traditional high-carbon industry, developing low-carbon technology; exploring clean energy and renewable energy; applying market mechanisms and economic leverage; enhancing global cooperation for reducing carbon discharge.更多还原