【作者】 王雷；

【导师】 周建仁；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 出口退税制度是一个国家为促进外贸发展、增强商品的出口竞争力而运用的一种财政手段。自出口退税政策实施以来,理论界对于出口退税政策的争议一直不断,一种观点认为出口退税是一种中性税收政策;另一种观点认为,出口退税是一种出口激励政策。政府通过调整出口退税政策,为本国经济结构的调整和经济增长模式的转变提供支持,它强调的是出口退税政策积极的促进效应。而如何从定量层面评价出口退税的经济效应,在经济决策中有效应用出口退税政策,则成为政府及理论界关注的一个有意义的主题。本文从出口总量、出口商品结构、出口贸易方式、出口区域来分析出口退税政策效应,具有很强的现实意义。本文通过回顾出口退税政策的演进过程,分析出了影响出口退税政策的一些主要因素包括:经济发展战略、经济发展的状况、外贸体制、出口贸易的状况、财政体制、外汇体制、产品的特殊性和国际贸易环境等,从而为评估出口退税效应提供宏观方面的参考原则和依据。文章通过对我国1989~2008年出口数据的观察,实证研究了出口退税与出口贸易增长之间的相关关系,证明了出口退税的实施确实对我国出口贸易增长起到了一个正面的推动作用;然后对我国近年来出口商品结构、出口贸易方式以及出口区域的特点做出分析,并进行实证研究,结果显示:出口退税对机电产品出口促进作用最大,纺织服装品其次,而“两高一资”产品出口受到抑制,说明出口退税对出口商品结构优化作用明显;对转变贸易增长方式效应不大;对东中部出口促进作用大,对西部出口促进作用较小。本文前面部分是在历史数据基础上分析出口退税政策效应,为了更全面的分析出口退税政策效应,笔者通过MCHUGE模型对金融危机背景下我国出口退税调整效应作了预测分析。结果显示,出口退税对我国未来的重要经济指标产生了正效应,机电产品和纺织服装品出口量将会增加,“两高一资”产品出口量会下降,体现了国家的政策意图。最后在前面实证分析的基础上,提出了完善出口退税政策的目标体系,主要内容包括:促进出口贸易发展目标、可持续发展目标、结构调整目标、就业目标和其他目标。从目标体系所包括的内容看,在不同时期和不同状况下,政策目标也不完全相同,因此要分清主次、统筹兼顾,制定全面、科学的出口退税政策,提高产品出口竞争力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Export rebate systern is a financial method of one country to raise it’s commodity export competitveness. Since the implementation of the export rebate policy, on which the dispute is still existing in theory field. One of the opinion considers that export rebate policy is just a neutual tax policy. Another opinion pionts out that export rebate policy can inspire exportation. And government can establish different export rebate models in a reasonable range, which can provide a support to adjust economic structure and change the type of economic increase. It also emphasises on the active promotive effect of this systerm. Then the questions is that how to evaluate the economic effect of the export reabte on the rational side? And how to apply the systerm effectively in economic policy-making becomes the significant topic both in political circles and theory field. This paper analyzes the effect of export rebate from four parts: export gross, structure of export commodity, type of export trade and export districts, which is significant to the reality.Through looking back the evolutional process of export rebate policy, we know some important factors, which impact on the export rebate policy. The factors include strategy of economic development, situation of economic development, foreign trade systemm, situation of export, fiscal system, foreign exchange system, particularities of products, international exportation environment and so on. Then we have macroscopic reference principle and basis to assess the effect of export rebate. According to our country’s export datas from 1989 to 2008, this paper studies the relationship between export rebate and exportation development. And the paper has proved that the implementation of export rebate positively promotes our country’s export trade.After that, the paper analyzes and studies empirically our country’s rencent structure of export commodities, the type of export trade and the characteristic of exportation district. Results: the maximal positive effect of export rebate working is to mechanical and electrical products; The next is to textile and garment products; And export of energy-intensive, highly-polluting and resource-based products is supressed. These displays that export rebate positively impacts the structure of export commodities. And the impact on changing type of export trade is small; Improving development of the eastern and middle exportation is strong and improving development of western export is also small. In order to analyze the effect of export rebate comprehensively, under the backround of financial crisis, the author predicts and studies export rebate’s equalizing effect by MCHUGE model. The result shows that: Export rebate positively influences our country’s infuture important economic index; The exportation of mechanical and electrical products and the exportation of textile and garment products will increase; And the exportation of energy-intensive, highly-polluting and resource-based products will decrease. Those reflects the policy intent.On the base of empirical study, we put forward the target system of export rebate, which includes the object of developing export trade, developing sustainablely, adjusting structure, employment and others. From the content of target system, the policy target is different in different period and conditon. So we should set priorities and make scientific and all-round export rebate policy to improve product competitiveness.更多还原