【作者】 陈力；

【导师】 齐二石；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 中国自1978年开始对社会保障制度改革,由原本的企业保险逐步转换成为如今社会保险的形式。然而,从70年代末期改革以来,中国经济的快速成长引起世界的瞩目,在进行了多种的改革之中,中央将其财政权力下放地方的措施被以为是贡献于其惊人经济成长的重要因素之一。但这却造成了地区间的竞争,也使得各个地区间的经济规模产生了差异。在这人口结构日趋老化的中国,社会保障支出总是其地方财政支出的重要项目,虽是地方财政的负担,但是否对该地区经济的发展受了局限吗?回顾一般在研究发展经济学的论文中可以发现,社会保障支出与经济规模间的影响都存在着两种不同的论述,没有一致的结论;至于中国,也是存在两极的结论。本篇文章的研究目的,即为了探讨中国社会保障支出受到各省市地区经济规模差异的影响效果为何。本文在参考以往学者研究成果的基础上,加入了可能会影响社会保障支出的其它变量以期能够更加完善的去构建计量模型,实证分析上,利用我国31个省市地区,2001年至2007年的面板数据,建立了基本养老支出与基本医疗支出两个模型,利用普通最小方差法去估计两种实证模型,并排除自我相关与模型设定错误等问题,实证结果表明,我国社会保障支出的确受到各省市地区经济规模的发展差异的影响,其中以地方产值的影响最大,呈现了正向显著的影响力,表示地方产业的生产总值的提升将会造成社会保障支出的增加,造成这样的结果主要是因为各个地区上产业属性的差异问题。其次,各省市地区的老年人口比例、各省市政府的税收收入与时间趋势变量,都对我国社会保障支出拥有正向推升的压力。本文的研究是针对我国城镇社会保障支出与地区经济发展规模之间的影响,但我国除了城镇居民外,还有一大部分的人是属于农村居民,而这些居民的社会保障制度将是本研究的一个延续主题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1978, China has reformed the social security system and gradually converted the original insurance business into the social insurance. Since the late 70s, the rapid economic growth has aroused attention of the world。Amid a variety of reforms, the central government’s behavior of decontrolling its fiscal power is considered an important factor for the great contribution of the economic growth. However, this resulted in inter-regional competition, and also makes the various inter-regional differences in economies of scale generated. With the structure of aging population in China, the social security expenditures is always a major expenditure item for the local government, even though the local government’s financial burden, but whether affected by the development of the regional economy? From the research and thesis of development economics, it can be found that there are two different conclusions between the impact of social security expenditure and economic scale; As for China, there is also a polar conclusion.This article’s aim is to explore how Chinese social security expenditure is affected by the regional economic scale differences of different provinces. We will take advantage of Chinese provincial-level tracking data for analysis of regional economic scale differences on social security expenditure. By reviewing the current literature, this paper will establish a more complete framework for the econometric model for the various effects of social security expenditure variables. In addition, this article will also make a clear introduction to the current Chinese social security system and the history of its development, and identify the problems confronted nowadays. Finally, considering the basic pension and basic medical expenditures affected slightly by different factors, the paper has established two kinds of empirical models, to further study the different expenditure by economic differences in respect of the impact of the development scale. Sorting out how social security expenditure impacted by economic scale, which is subject to the government’s reform as a reference.更多还原