【作者】 张霞；

【导师】 段进东；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 与封闭式基金相比,开放式基金显著的特点是其基金份额具有不确定性。由于投资者可以随时申购或赎回基金份额,其规模会不断发生变化。当基金处于净赎回状态时,基金的运作管理会处于困难的境地,因此,对开放式基金赎回率的研究和预测便成为基金管理工作的重要任务之一,但是现实生活中,基金的赎回状况受到很多因素的影响,只有在弄清楚基金赎回率影响因素的前提下,才能较为准确的预测基金的赎回率。本文根据晨星公司对我国开放式基金的分类,即将样本基金分为:股票型、普通债券型、积极配置型、保守配置型以及货币市场型五类,选取2006年以前成立的开放式基金为研究样本,分别对这五类基金的总赎回率和净赎回率的影响因素进行研究,结果表明不同类型基金的赎回率的影响因素不同,且同一类型基金其总赎回率和净赎回率的影响因素也有差异。虽然如此,但从总体上看,仍然可以发现如下规律:首先,从市场因素角度看,赎回率与证券市场走势呈现负相关,新成立基金规模对总赎回率有正影响,而对净赎回率有负影响;其次,从业绩因素角度看,累计净值对赎回率有负影响,单位净值和单位净值增长率对各类基金赎回率的影响差异较大;再次,从基金特质的角度看,基金的存续期和规模均对总赎回率有负影响,对净赎回率有正影响;最后从分红和费率的角度看,分红对总赎回率的影响是负的,对净赎回率的影响是正的,而费率对基金赎回率的影响不显著。基于以上结论,对于改善我国开放式证券投资基金的赎回率状况,本文提出了以下几点意见:第一,根据证券市场的走势,调整基金赎回准备;第二,保证基金累计净值增长,有条件要实行一定的分红;第三,大规模基金和较短成立时间的基金要加大风险防范力度;第四,设计灵活、合理的基金申购费率和赎回费率结构;第五,建立有效的基金赎回预测机制和应对机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Compared with the closed-end fund, open-end fund is characterized by the funds share with significant uncertainty. The investors can purchase or redeem fund shares at any time, so its size will continue to change. When the fund is in a net redemption of state, the Fund’s operational management will get into difficult situation. So it has become one of the most important tasks to do the research and prediction of the redemption rate of the open-end fund. In real life the Fund’s redemption will be affected by many factors, only to clarify the factors affecting the fund redemption rate can more accurate forecasts of the fund redemption rate be made.According to Morningstar’s classification of China’s open-end fund, those funds will be divided into:the stock type, common bond type, active configuration type, the currency market-oriented and conservative configuration type. In this paper, the funds studied are all established before the year 2006. Different types of open-end funds are studied to find out their influencing factors to their total redemption rate and the net redemption rate. It turns out to be that different types of open-end funds are influenced by different kinds of factors, and for the one kind of fund, its total redemption rate and the net redemption rate are still influenced by different factors. Though, some rules in common can be got:First, from the perspective of market factors, the redemption rate of the funds was positively correlated with the newly established fund, while the net redemption rate was negatively correlated with the newly established fund;Secondly, from the perspective of the performance factors, the cumulative net has negative impact on the redemption rate, units net value and the net redemption rate of growth of unit net value on the impact of various types of funds are quite different; again, from the perspective of the fund characteristics, both of the Fund’s duration and size has a negative impact on the total redemption rate and has a positive impact on the net redemption rate; finally , from the perspective of dividends and rates,dividends on the impact of the overall redemption rate is negative, the impact of the net redemption rate is positive, while the costs rate on the impact of the redemption rate of the Fund is not significant.Based on the above conclusions, for the improvement of China’s open-end securities investment fund redemption rate conditions, this paper puts forward the following observations: First, according to stock market movements, adjust the Fund Redemption preparation; second, to ensure that the accumulated net value grow, conditional to the implementation of certain dividends; third, large-scale funds and the fund which has been exsiting for shorter time set up to take more precautionary measures; fourth, design flexibility, reasonable purchase rates and redemption rates for the fund structure; 5th ,to establish an effective mechanism to the prediction of fund redemption and response mechanisms.更多还原