【作者】 王江涛；

【导师】 马驷；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 本论文在充分借鉴和参考前人经验及成果的基础上,针对现有的运输通道客运分担率预测方法,从出行者出行调查数据的获得、效用函数的选取原则、效用函数特性变量的选取方案及其值的量化方法、效用函数形式的选取、模型的预测精度分析方法等方面入手对其研究,力求找出合适的高速运输通道分担率预测方法。论文主要研究内容和成果如下：在对国内、外有关运输通道客运分担率研究现状进行分析的基础上,总结了各种分担率预测方法的优缺点,并指出现有研究存在的问题。另外,本文介绍了集计模型和非集计模型的基础理论,重点阐述了MNL模型、NL模型和Probit模型理论,说明了运用MNL模型和NL模型预测高速客运通道客运分担率的适用性；详细分析了应用LOGIT模型预测运输通道客运分担率时的出行者出行特征调查数据调查方法的选择、抽样方法和样本数量的确定、效用函数特性变量的选取原则、效用函数的选取形式、特性变量的选取方案、特性变量值的量化方法和模型的预测精度的检验方法；阐述了MNL模型和NL模型在Transcad上的实现过程及注意要点和MNL模型和NL模型在Transcad的参数估计和应用的步骤。最后,基于2006年西兰通道旅客出行调查数据,对比分析了在不同特性变量的选取方案和不同的效用函数的选取形式下运用MNL模型和NL模型拟合西兰通道旅客出行特征调查数据的能力；运用二项Probit模型对西安-兰州客运专线和航空的市场份额进行了预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis was based on the results of predecessors’experience, and aimed at the existing mode split forecasting methods of transportation corridors, it was researched from many aspects:the acquisition of the passenger travel’s survey data, the selection principle of utility function, the selection scheme of its explanation variables and the quantitative method of its value, the selection of its format, and the analysis method of prediction precision, it was in order to find out the appropriate prediction method for transportation corridors.The mainly research contents and results are as follows:Based on domestic and foreign relevant research, the author summarized the advantages and disadvantages of existing prediction method, and pointed out some existing problems. In addition, this thesis introduced the basic theory of disaggregate model and disaggregate model, and expounded the model MNL, model NL, and model Probit, and showed some of their applicability; this thesis analyzed model LOGIT about the acquisition of the passenger travel’s survey data, the selection principle of utility function, the selection scheme of its explanation variables and the quantitative method of its value, the selection of its format, and the analysis method of prediction precision in detail; this thesis especially analyzed the realization process and attention points of MNL model and NL model on Transcad, described its parameter estimation and application steps in detail; based on the passenger travel’s survey data of 2006 Xinan corridors, this thesis contrasted and analyzed the fitting ability to Xinan corridors using model MNL and model NL on different selection scheme of explanation variables and different selection format of utility function.更多还原