【作者】 杨晓燕；

【导师】 杜文；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,我国国民经济快速发展,而铁路是国民经济的先行企业,发展尤为迅速,作为交通建设的首选方向—轨道交通更是取得了长足的发展,城际铁路(包括客运专线)建设方兴未艾,全国范围内各大城市相继进行城市轨道交通,包括地铁与城际铁路建设。在这个轨道交通蓬勃发展的时代背景下,研究它的相关问题就显得很有必要。本文主要分析了城际铁路的特征,包括城际铁路的内涵、城际铁路的客流特点和城际铁路的功能定位,以及城际铁路对区域发展的作用等。接下来分析了城际出行的内涵及需求,主要分析了城际出行的定义、过程和城际出行的交通方式,并详细分析了城际出行的需求特征和发展趋势以及城际出行的心理特征；城际出行方式选择的影响因素主要包括经济与社会发展因素、城际交通设施特性因素、城际出行者特性因素、城际出行特性因素等。由于城际出行的交通方式具有多样化特征,基于ML模型的多元Logit模型比较适宜作为城际出行行为选择预测的基本模型。通过分析发现,乘坐火车出行已经成为城际出行的首要选择,不同收入水平的城际出行者在选择出行方式时考虑的因素存在差异。此外由于目前成绵乐区域经济发展相对沿海地区显得有些落后,出行者对于价格的敏感程度较高,此外由于城际铁路在出行者中的认知程度不是很高,导致了选择意愿并不是特别强烈。本文根据成绵乐区域的经济与人口状况以及成绵乐客运的需求状况,分析发现成绵乐区域内客运增速较快,总体需求旺盛。客运需求的多样化趋势比较明显,客运需求分布存在一定的不均衡性。结合本文的相关研究结论,本文对未来成绵乐城际列车的开行方案也做探讨。针对城际列车方案制定目标、开行方案的制定原则、客车编组方式、停站方案、开行数量等做了初步探讨,并提出了一些对策与建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the rapid development of China’s national economy, while the railway is the national guide enterprises, its development was particularly rapid. Rail transportation as the preferred direction of transportation construction, made great progress, and the construction of inter-city rail (including the high-speed rail) is in a large scale, major cities across the country have carried out mass rail construction, including subway and intercity rail construction. In this condition, research of the problems related intercity rail is extremely important.This paper analyzed the characteristics of intercity rail, which was including the content, characteristics of intercity rail passenger, the function of intercity rail, and the role of intercity rail on regional development. Then mainly analyzed the definition of inter-city travel, process of inter-city travel, and inter-city travel modes of transportation, analyzed the demand characteristics, development trends and the psychological characteristics of intercity travel in detail.The factors of choosing intercity travel mode include economic and social development factors, characteristics of inter-city transport factors, characteristics of inter-city travel are factors, factors such as inter-city travel characteristics. As inter-city travel has diverse characteristics, the model based on diversified ML Logit model is more appropriate for the forecast of intercity travel behavior. According to Chengmianle regional economic and demographic situation and the demand for passenger Chengmianle situation, this paper found that the passenger in Chengmianle region and the overall demand will grow rapidly. The passenger demand is diversified, and there is a certain distribution of passenger demand imbalance.Based on the travel survey of Chengmianle residents, it has drawn a conclusion, take train has become the first choice of intercity travel, and the considerations of inter-city traveler with different income levels are different. Due to the relative backward regional economic of Chengmianle compare with coastal areas, the travel has a higher degree of price sensitivity. In addition to intercity rail travelers’few knowledge, the selection desire of the intercity rail is not particularly strong.Associated with this conclusion of the paper, this paper analyses on the organization of the Chengmianle intercity train and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.更多还原