重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价模型及应用研究

【作者】 李芳；

【导师】 徐选华；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,我国的自然灾害尤其是重大自然灾害频发,给国家和人们的生命财产安全带来重大损失。2008年我国南方重大冰雪灾害直接经济损失就达1516.5亿元。在社会不断进步、人们的生活水平不断提高的当今社会,人类却无法摆脱自然灾害的侵袭,因此各级政府部门必须提高重大自然灾害应急管理应对能力。在国内,应急管理是一个新兴的课题,各行各业都在对其研究,已取得一些理论成果,但是国内外关于地震灾害、城市突发公共事件研究的文献相对较多,而关于重大冰雪灾害研究的文献较少。本文针对我国2008年重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价的复杂性和不确定性,传统评价涉及的因素难以适应重大冰雪灾害的评价。深入分析了重大冰雪灾害应急管理评价体系的构建依据,提出了重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价体系结构。首先根据全过程管理理论及系统理论中的层次分析法,构造了重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力集,在此基础上结合冰雪灾害的特点提出了应急管理能力因素集。其次调研湖南省30个政府部门应急管理专家,根据专家意见最后确立重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价体系结构。在已建立的重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价指标结构的基础上,运用熵权法和群决策方法确定指标综合权重。专家群体对指标体系的最底层指标打分,与相应指标的综合权重集结,可得专家群体对一级能力层指标的评分值。采用群决策方法获得专家群体对一级评价指标的群体偏好矢量,形成评价城市的综合评价矩阵,运用灰色综合评价模型求出各个被评价城市应急管理能力的排序向量。重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价方法应用于湖南省雪灾案例,得出湖南省被评市的重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力排序向量。对评分值进行分析,指出了湖南省各级政府部门重大冰雪灾害应急管理存在的薄弱环节,以及提出了相应的解决办法,具有较好的实用性。最后倡导全人类要爱护环境、节约资源,与大自然和谐相处。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, natural disasters have experienced frequent occurrence in our country, especially major natural disadters, which cause heavy losses to state and people’s life and property safety. In 2008 a major snow disaster in south China reached direct economic loss 151.65 billion Yuan. In modern society, with the social progress and people’s living standard improving, human beings cannot get rid of natural disasters, so all levels government department must improve coping ability of emergency management of major natural disaster.In China, emergency management is a new topic for all trade in the research. And some achievements in theory have been made. At home and abroad, there are many research literatures about earthquake, urban emergency incident and so on, but little about major snow disaster. In this paper, aiming to the complexity and uncertainty on emergency management capability evaluating of major snow disaster in 2008, it is difficult for the factors-involved in traditional evaluation to adapt the evaluating of major snow disaster. The basis of evaluation system construction about emergency management of snow disaster is in-depth analyzed. Then the evaluation system structure of emergency management capability of major snow disaster is proposed. Firstly, based on full process management theory and analytic hierarchy method in system theory, the emergency management capability set of major snow disaster is constructed. Based on it and combining the characteristics of major snow disaster, the factor set of emergency management capabilities is proposed. Secondly, based on the investigation for the index system of emergency management experts in 30 government departments of Hunan province, the evaluation system structure of emergency management capability of major snow disaster is established.On the basis of the evaluation system structure of emergency management capability, the comprehensive weight of index is confirmed by entropy method and group decision method. The expert group evaluation for the bottom of index system aggregate the comprehensive weight of index.Then the expert group evaluation for the first class of evaluation index system is obtained. The preference vector of the first class evaluation index of expert group is obtained by using group decision method, and then the comprehensive appraisal matrix of evaluated cities is formed. The priority vector of emergency management capability of evaluated cities is derived by using grey comprehensive model.The method of emergency management capability evaluation of major snow disaster is applied to snow disaster case of Hunan province. Then the priority vector of emergency management capability of evaluated cities of Hunan province is obtained. Through the analysis of the score value, the weak link of emergency management of major snow disaster of all levels government department of Hunan province is pointed out and the corresponding solution is proposed. The method has better practicability. At last, advocate human beings to protect environment and save resources, then live in harmony with nature.更多还原