【作者】 杜杨；

【导师】 李勤昌；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 粮食是人类赖以生存的宝贵资源,是关系国计民生的重要商品。我国又是人多地少的发展中国家,要用占世界7%的耕地来养活占世界22%的人口,因此粮食问题不仅仅是经济问题,更关乎社会的稳定、国家的长治久安。除了国内粮食供需的各种历史矛盾,近年来自然灾害频频发生,各国农产品贸易保护主义大行其道,部分农业大国正逐步渗透发展中国家的粮食链条,再加上2007年一场来势汹涌的粮食危机,这些新形势都考验着各国的粮食安全,也给我国的粮食安全敲响了警钟。随着我国经济的不断发展,维护粮食安全也取得了阶段性的成果,如自2004年起粮食连续6年增产,全国口粮基本可以自给,人均粮食占有量也从1980年的327公斤攀升至2008年的399公斤。但不可否认的是,我国国内仍然存在诸多影响粮食安全的风险因素。首当其冲的即是粮食需求量庞大。粮食需求量在工业用粮和饲料用粮的推动下不断攀升,两者相加已经达到了粮食总需求量的60%且还在上升。随着我国工业化和城市化进程的不断加快,短期内这种需求压力不会减小。其次,粮食供给方面,受耕地、水资源等自然资源的约束,粮食增产难度增大。而作为粮食增产支撑的科技因素与发达国家相比,势力相差仍然很大。虽然中央连续下发一号文件大力扶持农业,加大科研经费投入并普及农科知识,但基于起步晚、底子薄,想要在几年之内把科技水平提升到世界先进水平几乎是不可能。以上两个因素,直接导致了农民种粮比较效益低,因此部分农民失去种粮意愿,转而投向了回报率更高的城市劳动力市场；同时间接给了拥有先进科技的国际农业巨头抢占中国市场的机会。除此之外,国际社会出现的各种新形势也给我国的粮食安全提出了挑战。值得一提的就是2007年爆发的全球性粮食危机。虽然我国坚持95%的高自给率,但是为了抵御粮食危机的冲击,仍然调整了相当一部分粮食的出口政策,以确保国内粮食市场的供应稳定。在另一个没有硝烟的战场——多哈回合农业谈判,作为最大的发展中国家,中国不断的融入粮食贸易的利益纠葛中,既要遵循WTO农业贸易规则,也要切实维护本国的利益不受发达国家的侵害,可见,维护粮食安全之路任重而道远。基于以上清醒的认识,本文对中国粮食安全所面临的内部和外部的风险作以全面分析。在确定了影响一国粮食安全的四大因素,即粮食综合生产能力、粮食消费水平、国内粮食流通体系及粮食进口能力和国际政治经济环境的基础上,从三个角度分析了中国的粮食安全面临的诸多风险。结合大量数据分析不难看出,我国的粮食消费量大,但保障粮食充足供给和有效分配的能力并不高,与欧美发达国家相比仍处于落后,再加上国际政治经济环境的风云变化,我国的粮食安全将面对重大考验。鉴于此,本文从三方面提出了维护中国粮食安全的对策。首先,应采取一切必要的手段扶持粮食增产,维持较高的自给率。国家应花大气力加强自然资源保护,提升机械化水平,提高科研创新能力以及完善粮食流通渠道。唯有这些硬件和软件势力的共同提升,粮食产量和种粮效益才能提高,农民的种粮积极性才能有效发挥。其次,除了采取必要的行动,全国人民还要从心里真正认识到粮食安全的重要性,树立惜粮意识,合理消费粮食,并积极配合国家保障粮食安全措施的实施。最后,结合不断变化的国际政治经济环境,我国应立足国情,在遵循WTO农业贸易规则的前提下,制定合理的粮食市场制度和粮食贸易政策,以保障我国粮食市场不受国际市场的大力冲击。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food is a valuable resource for survival as well as an essential commodity for both countries and their people. Being a developing country with a large number of people but comparably scarce arable land, China have to feed 22 percent world’s population by 7 percent of world’s arable land. Therefore, food issue is not merely an economic one, but also a political one close to social and national stability.In addition to domestic contradictions, new risks including frequent natural disasters, wide spread of trade protectionism, food chains of developing countries held by developed countries and the global food crisis exploded in 2007 are all testing the world’s food security, which simultaneously run the food security alarm of China.With the continuously economic development, China has already acquired period achievements. For instance, food output had a continuous increase in the past 6 years. We can basically feed ourselves with domestic food. Furthermore, per capital output of food rose from 327 kilograms in 1980 to 399 kilograms in 2008. Despite these achievements, China is still facing so many food security risk factors. The most significant one would be the huge food demand within China. The vast demand for industrial and feed lead to a large consumption for food which amount to 60 percent of the total food demand. Along with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, such demand will not be reduced in a short term. In the second place, concerning food supply, food production is considered hard to increase due to constraints of water and arable land. Also, technology, as a support, developed much slower compared with that of some western developed countries. Although central government has issued the initial document to support agriculture, investing large sum of money as well as spreading scientific knowledge, it is still impossible to improve technology in the short run as a result of the poor foundation. The above two reasons directly brought about the comparatively low profit for peasants who relying on food planting. Consequently, some peasants started for a new profitable job in the city. And this indirectly provided opportunities for some international agriculture corporations to investing in China. In addition, changes of international situations also challenge food security of China. One thing that worth mentioning would be the global food crisis erupted in 2007. In order to withstand the shocks, though with a high degree of self-sufficiency up to 95 percent, China had to adjust the food export policy to the changing situations for a further stability of domestic market. Besides, in Doha round of agriculture negotiations, as the largest developing country, China has been inevitably involved into the disputes of food trade. We not only have to obey the regulations of WTO, but also need to defend own interests. Therefore, we have really a long way to protect food security.Based on the above clearly understanding and upon four preconditions that may influence a country’s food security including food production potential, food consumption level, food circulation system and capacity to import, and international political and economical environment, this dissertation comprehensively analyses the internal and external risks to China’s food security from three perspectives. A mass of historical data show that compared with western developed countries, China has a much lower ability to maintain plenty of food supply and an efficient distribution. Plus constant changes in international environment, China will definitely meet so many risks in the future. In view of this, this dissertation proposed three solutions for China. Firstly, we should take all necessary means for food production and to maintain a high degree of self-sufficiency. Government should try every effort to strengthen the protection of natural resources, enhance the level of mechanization, promote innovative capacity and perfect the food distribution channels. Only with improvement of both hard and soft power can a country increase the food production and planting profits, and further give play to the initiative of the peasants. Secondly, in addition to the necessary actions from the government, people should realize the importance of food security, build awareness of saving food in daily life, consume food in a reasonable way and actively cooperate with the state on food security measurements. Lastly, under the constant changes of international political and economical environment, we should follow WTO rules while clearly understanding our own situation, and then establish reasonable food market system and food trade policy in order to withstand the negative impacts from the international markets.更多还原