基于改进的GM模型在矿山安全事故预测中的应用及分析

【作者】 刘芳芳；

【导师】 杨溢；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国国民经济的高速发展,对矿产资源的需求也急剧增长,矿山企业的安全生产形势不容乐观。针对矿山事故管理及预防工作存在的不确定性,本文运用灰色系统理论相关知识,旨在构建基本的矿山事故预测分析模型,为企业采取有针对性的措施提供依据。其主要内容如下：(1)事故的发生多少是安全生产的主要表现形式,为了更好的研究矿山的安全生产现状,本论文对某矿山的历年生产事故类型、矿石总量、职工人数及其它数据资料进行了收集整理及统计。(2)事故伤亡率是表征矿山安全生产状况的综合指标,本文将灰色系统理论中的灰色GM(1,1)模型应用到某矿山事故伤亡率的预测上,为了提高预测结果的精度和准确性,引进了马尔可夫随机过程的马氏链理论及缓冲算子这两种方法来改进模型,通过实例验算改进模型的精确度以及将两种改进模型进行对比分析。(3)本文采用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析方法,以某矿山为对象,通过选取事故伤亡率影响因素,计算相关数据,利用灰色关联分析方法,得出各影响因素特征值与事故伤亡率的关联度及各因素的关联顺序,对于该矿山安全生产管理部门的管理有着很大的意义。(4)论文基于灰色系统理论的预测模型,在Java程序设计工具的辅助下,编写关于事故伤亡率灰色马尔可夫预测的算法及缓冲算子改进灰色预测模型算法的两种程序,并通过实例进行了验证,为矿山日后的安全生产事故管理工作提供一个有效的信息辅助平台。本文所研究的内容有很大部分都属于应用性研究,可以对矿山进行动态或静态安全预测,预测结果具有科学、系统且具体的特点。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of China’s national economy, the demand for mineral resources, the rapid growth of mining enterprises for production safety situation is still grim. For the management of the mine accident uncertainty, this article related to the use of gray system theory of knowledge, aimed at building a basic analysis of the mine accident prediction model, for enterprises to adopt targeted measures provide a basis.Its main contents are as follows:(1) The number of accidents is the main performance of safety in production form, in order to better study the safety of mine production,in this paper, the calendar year on production of a mine accident type, output, number of employees and other statistical data collection and analysis.(2)Characterization of the accident casualty rate is the state of mine safety in production composite indicator, in this paper, the gray system theory in the gray GM (1,1) model applied to a mine accident casualty rate forecasts,in order to improve the forecast accuracy and the accuracy of the results, introduced a Markov random process theory and the Markov chain buffer operator of these two methods to improve the model, checking through the example of the improvement of models to predict the rate of mine injured people, as well as the accuracy of the two models were analyzed to improve the comparison.(3)In this paper,a mine in accordance with the actual situation of production,the impact of the accident casualty rate of selected factors that happened,and the use of gray correlation analysis method to the extent of the impact analysis of its associated sequence,to make the mine safe production management to take proper safety measures have targeted to reduce the accident happened,so targeted, the focus of safety work to master,this gray relational analysis method,with errors small and accurate characteristics.(4)In this paper,based on gray system theory prediction model,the procedure at Jawa-assisted design tools to compile accident casualty rate gray Markov prediction algorithms,and verified through an example for future mine production safety incident management job to provide an effective platform for auxiliary information. This paper studied the contents of most of them have very much belong to applied research can be carried out on metal mine safety dynamic or static prediction,prediction results are scientific,systematic and specific characteristics.更多还原