【作者】 陈伟；

【导师】 李德宜；

【作者基本信息】 武汉科技大学 ， 概率论与数理统计， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 区域经济经展水平的评价结果是政府部门判断该区域现有的经济水平和制定该区域经济发展策略的重要依据。目前区域经济分析常用的数学方法有多元统计、线性规划和决策论。其中多元统计分析在区域经济评价中的具体方法有因子分析、主成分分析、聚类分析和回归分析。在区域经济评价中,一般只采用其中一种方法进行分析,这存在一点不足,即由于不同分析方法的思想和出发点不一样,导致不同的方法对同一数据分析结果可能不一致。这对制定合理的区域经济发展策略存在着不利的影响。武汉城市圈是我国两型社会建设综合改革和全国区域经济协调发展的重点地区,在“中部崛起”国家战略中起着领头作用,对湖北省的社会经济发展起着辐射带动作用。本文以武汉城市圈9个市为研究对象,通过构建反映各市综合经济实力的评价指标体系,从地区基本情况、工农业发展情况、人民生活情况、社会发展情况和经济发展趋势等方面选取了30项经济指标,利用SAS软件,采用主成分和因子分析法对数据进行了分析,并用多变量协和系数检验法对这两种方法分析结果的一致性进行了检验,然后把这两个结果做组合。最后,利用聚类分析,依据分析结果将9个市分类,并对武汉城市圈各市的经济发展提出了一些建议。通过具体案例的分析,文章最后总结出了一种更好的区域经济分析方法,这种方法能回避不同的多元统计方法对同一数据分析结果可能不一致的问题,具体为首先采用多种方法对同一指标数据进行分析,然后对这些结果的一致性进行检验,在一致性较好的情况下,对结果做组合得到一个最终分析结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Evaluational result of regional economic development level is an important prove for governmental sectors to judge the present development level and plan the strategies of this area. There are multivariate statistical analysis、linear programming and decision theory in the mathematic mothod we often used to analysis regional economy at present. Multivariate statistical analysis includes principal component analysis、factor analysis、cluster analysis and regression analysis, while usually only one of these methods is used in the evaluation, which exist some limitations that the differentes of analysis leads to the inconsistant of the result of the same group of data for different methods.Wuhan Metroplitan Area which plays an inportant role in comprehensive reform of the two-oriented social construction and coordinated development of regional economy in our country, is the leading role of National strategy of the rising of central China. And it takes a radial effect on other areas in Hubei Province.Taking Wuhan metroplitan area as the research object, this paper selects 30 economic indicators through constructing the evaluation index system which reflects the comprehensive economic strength of each city. Analyze the data by using SAS software as well as the principal component analysis method, the factor analysis method,and check the consistency of the results through concordant coemcients kendall test, then combine those two results.Finally,classify the 9 cities on the basis of the results with cluster analysis, and put some suggestions about the economic development of Wuhan metroplitan area.The article concluded a better analytic method of the regional economic development through the analysis of specific case.This method can aviod the inconsistency of different Multivariate statistical analysis and approaches to the same statistic analytic result.In the other words, we should first use many methods to analyse the same quota statistics, and then examine the consistency of those results, under the good consisitency, we can combine the results and get the final analytic result.更多还原