【作者】 王丽娟；

【导师】 查良松；

【作者基本信息】 安徽师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 气候变化及其影响的事实基本已得到国际社会和科学界的广泛认同。气候变化是由人类活动和自然变化共同影响的。有许多证据表明,过去50年观测到的全球增暖大部分归因于人类活动的影响。人类活动的影响在城市的突出表现就是促成了有别于区域气候的城市气候的形成,许多观测事实证明,这种影响随着城市发展而日益广泛和深化,现已引起人们的普遍关注。这种相对独立的城市气候环境,对人类的社会生产和生活的影响愈益直接而突出。因此,城市气候的研究不仅在论证人类活动与气候变化的关系这个理论问题上有重要意义,并且在城市天气气候预报、城市灾害防御、城市规划和城市建设、能源利用、居民保健、环境保护和生态平衡的改善上都有实际应用价值。本文利用郑州1951-2007年的气温和降水两个气候要素记录资料,采用统计方法、最小二乘法、M-K突变检验方法、小波分析方法等分析了郑州的各气候要素的变化趋势、突变特征以及变化周期特征等。用孟津1961年以来气候变化与郑州作对比,分析郑州市与区域背景气候变化的异同,并分析郑州市城市气候变化的原因,并用两地气候要素变化率对比计算城市化对郑州城市气候变化的贡献率。主要结论:(1)1951年以来郑州市年平均气温不断升高,平均幅度约0.23℃/10年,大致可以分为一个低温期和一个高温期:1951年到80年代末为低温期;1987~2007年为高温期,20年间气温升高了约1.6℃,升高幅度为0.81℃/10年,远大于半个世纪以来的增温幅度。近57年来郑州市春季和冬季气温上升幅度十分明显,分别达到了0.37℃/10年和0.34℃/10年,秋季气温增温幅度小于冬春季节,夏季增温最不明显。气温的变化主要是年代际周期的影响,年际变化较弱。平均最低温增加幅度大于最高温,平均最低温在气温的变化中起关键作用。(2)郑州市多年平均降水量为640.9mm,1951-2007年总体变化趋势不明显,有略微的增加趋势,降水倾向率为0.25mm/10年。春季和秋季降水波动下降,秋季降水下降率不及春季显著,春旱现象有加剧的趋势;夏季和冬季降水则表现出了波动上升的趋势。郑州市降水主要受年际尺度振荡影响。(3)郑州市热岛效应强度以0.065℃/10年的速率增加,近47年热岛值增加了0.31℃。80年代末以来热岛值的变化更为突出,变化率为0.31℃/10年。热岛效应与城市人口数量和城市建成区面积有显著的相关性,秋冬季相关性大于春夏相关性,这说明郑州市城市人口数目的增加和城市面积的扩大是导致郑州城市热岛效应加剧的重要原因。其中城市人口数目的增加较建成区面积的扩大对热岛效应的影响更大,是城市热岛效应的增强的主要原因。由于城市降水的机制比较复杂,郑州市雨岛效应与城市人口数和建成区面积之间的相关性不是十分显著,未通过0.1的显著性水平检验,但是郑州市存在明显的雨岛效应。(4)1961年以来,郑州城市化增温率为0.064℃/10年,城市化增温对郑州城市气温增加的贡献率为25%。郑州城市化增雨率为11.16mm/10年,城市化增雨对郑州城市降水增加的贡献率为82.1%。城市气候的变化由区域气候和人类活动共同影响,人类活动对城市气候的影响越来越大。它们虽然在城市气候变化中的贡献率越来越大,但这些影响对每个气侯要素的贡献率是不等的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fact of climate change and its effects has been widely recognized by international community and the scientific community. Human activity and natural changes influence on climate change. Many evidence indicated that the global warming due to human activities over the past 50 years. Human activities led to format the urban climate that is different from the regional climate, and increasingly impact on the urban climate with urban development. The urban climate environment impacts on social production and life directly and obviously. Therefore, the urban climate research not only demonstrate the relationship of human activity and climate change, but also give the practical application to urban weather and climate forecasting, urban disaster prevention, urban planning and urban construction, energy use, population health, environmental protection and the improvement of the ecological balance.In this paper, the records of climatic elements of Zhengzhou from 1951 to 2007 were used. The paper analyzed in Zhengzhou, the trend of changes of various climate factors, mutation characteristics and cycle of changes using statistical methods, least-squares method, M-K mutation testing methods, wavelet analysis methods. The paper compared Zhengzhou climate change with Mengjin climate change since 1961 to analyze similarities and differences of Zhengzhou City and the regional climate change. and analyze causes of climate change, then use the two elements of the rate of change of climate to get the calculation of contribution rate of urbanization on climate change in Zhengzhou City. Major conclusions:(1) The annual average temperature show upward trend in Zhengzhou City since 1951, at rate of about 0.23℃/10 a. From 1951 to the late 80s the temperature was low relatively, but from 1987 to 2007 was high. In period of late 20 years, temperature increases by about 1.6℃, increasing the range of 0.81℃/10 a. The past 57 years, temperatures rising in spring and winter were very obvious, but the rate of warming temperatures in autumn was lower than in winter and spring, warming was not obvious in summer. Cycle of the temperature change is largely inter-decadal cycle. Rate of increase in the average minimum temperature is greater than the highest temperature, the average minimum temperature play a key role in the temperature change. (2) The average rainfall was 640.9mm , The trend of the overall is not obvious from 1951 to 2007 year. Rainfall in the spring and autumn declined ,and the rate of decline of rainfall in autumn was less than the spring, drought in spring had exacerbated the trend; summer and winter rainfall were shown an upward trend. Cycle of rainfall was mainly affected by the inter-annual oscillation.(3) The heat island intensity enhanced 0.31℃since 1961. at 0.065℃/10 rate of increase. Heat island since the late 80’s the changes in the value of the more prominent changes in the rate of 0.31℃/10a. Heat island was closely related to urban populations and the number of built-up areas.This meant the urban population increase and urban area expansion was leading to worsening urban heat island effect in Zhengzhou. The urban population number increase was more important than the expansion of built-up area for the enhanced urban heat island effect. There was rain island effect in Zhengzhou City. Rain island effect and urban development was not very significant correlation that did not pass the 0.1 significance level test.(4) Since 1961, warming rate raised by urbanization was 0.064℃/10 a, the contribution rate of the warming raised by urbanization on the temperature increase of Zhengzhou was 25%. Increasing rainfall rate raised by urbanization was 11.16mm/10 a, the contribution rate of the increasing rainfal raised by urbanization on the rainfall increase of Zhengzhou was 82.1%. Urban climate change was influenced by regional climate and human activities together, and the influence and contribution rate of human activities on urban climate was increasing, but the influences and contribution rate on each climate factor was different.更多还原