【作者】 彭燕；

【导师】 陈文宽；

【作者基本信息】 四川农业大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 根据产业经济学一般原理,合理的产业结构,能使社会总资源得到有效的配置与利用,可以提高单位资源的产出效益,使经济总量增长始终有充分的后劲,以较高速度增长。因此,地震灾后的安县农业主导产业的选择与发展是形成合理、有效的农业产业结构的关键,只有以主导产业发展为核心,才能带动其他相关产业的共同发展,以及安县农业产业结构才能调整到更加合理的状况。本文通过对地震前后安县农业发展基本条件及其农业产业发展基本情况的了解,分析其农业产业发展的趋势和存在的问题,借鉴灰色关联分析理论和综合评价理论,分别从纵向和横向分析选择安县农业的主导产业。纵向上,运用灰色关联分析对地震灾前安县2002-2007年的农业产业进行分析,得出安县农业各备选产业与大农业的相关程度,相关程度排序为畜禽产品>猪>林产品>油料>稻谷>蔬菜>家禽>水产品>茶叶>中药材；横向上,以综合评价理论为指导,构建了安县农业主导产业评价指标体系,利用熵权法对各指标赋值,运用综合评价法对地震灾后安县农业主导产业进行了综合评价,结果为家禽>水产品>茶叶>稻谷>畜禽产品>油料>林产品>猪>蔬菜>中药材。同时结合安县灾后的实际情况,最终确定了安县农业的主导产业,本文认为安县农业应大力发展现代生态养殖产业、名优水产产业、优质粮油产业、蔬菜产业,将这几大产业作为安县农业主导产业,带动安县农业产业的健康快速发展。主要结论有:(1)安县应着力发展现代家禽养殖业,使之成为川西北重要的现代化家禽养殖基地和产业化示范基地,打造四川家禽第一县。做大、做长和做强家禽养殖业产业链,不断提高畜禽产品精深加工的水平和附加值。(2)安县应将水产业建设成集名、特、优产品的养殖、繁育、观赏、生态和休闲于一体的现代化水产产业带,同时集中力量全面加强“产业带”建设,使之成为全市渔业经济发展的亮点,发展安县特色农业。(3)根据安县不同的自然地理特征,将安县蔬菜产业布局成三个区域,分区域发展安县无公害优质蔬菜产业。本文的创新点在于运用灰色关联分析安县地震灾前的农业产业关联度,运用综合评价法对地震灾后安县的农业产业进行综合评价,同时结合安县当地实际情况,从理论上确立了安县的农业发展的主导产业,为当地县委政府决策提供了依据。本文的主要不足是由于数据的缺失,在指标设计上并不很全面。且由于时间和学识的限制,在一些研究的分析上也不是很深入。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to general principles of industrial economics, rational industrial structure can make the total social resources be effectively allocated and used, can improve the units output efficiency, and the overall can grow with sufficient power at a higher rate. therefore, the selection and promotion of industrial development is the key to format a rational and effective structure, only taking the development of leading industry as the core can promote the common development of other industries, and adjust the industrial structure to a more reasonable situation.Based on basic understanding of Anxian and the development situation of its agricultural industry, this paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of agricultural development, drawn on gray system theory and system evaluation theory, and chooses leading agricultural industries in Anxian from the vertical and horizontal point. Vertically, it analyzes the agricultural industry pre-earthquake 2002-2007 with gray relational in Anxian, and gets the result that the relevance degree between the various agricultural industries and main agriculture in Anxian, ranking as Livestock and poultry products> Pigs>Forestry>Oil>Rice>Vegetables>Poultry>Fisheries>Tea>Chinese herbal medicines; Horizontally, guided by integrated assessment theory, this paper Constructs leading agricultural industry evaluation index system of Anxian, assigning the various indicators with entropy weight, and conducts a comprehensive evaluation of leading agricultural industry after earthquake in Anxian by comprehensive evaluation, the results show that the Poultry>Fisheries>Tea>Rice>Livestock and poultry products>Oil> Forestry>Pigs>Vegetables>Chinese herbal medicines. In the same time, combining with the actual situation, it chooses out the leading agriculture industry, the paper holds that the Anxian should vigorously develop modern agriculture and ecological farming industry, famous aquatic products industry, high-quality grain and oil industry, forestry industry, and take these several agricultural industry as a county leading industries,drive healthy and rapid development of agriculture in Anxian. The main conclusions are:(1) Anxian should conduct the development of modern poultry industry, build an important modern poultry breeding base and industrialization demonstration base in Northwest, and try to be the first county in Sichuan poultry. Try to make the poultry industry chain bigger, longer and stronger, improve the level of deep processing of livestock products and their adding value continuously.(2) Anxian should construct aquaculture into a set of breeding, ornamental, ecological and leisure of famous, special and excellent products in a modern aquaculture industrial zone, while concentrate efforts on the building of strengthening the "industrial belt", making the city Fisheries economic development highlighted, and develop the featured agriculture of Anxian.(3) According to different natural and geographical characteristics of Anxian, it should develop the pollution-free high-quality vegetable industry of Anxian by dividing vegetable industry into three regions.Innovation of this paper is to analyze pre-earthquake correlation of Anxian agricultural industry by using grey relational analysis, conducts a comprehensive evaluation of leading agriculture industry after earthquake in Anxian by comprehensive evaluation, combining with Anxian local conditions, chooses out the leading industries in Anxian, for the local county government to provide a basis for decision-making.The main disadvantages of this paper is due to lack of data, the construction indicators are not designed to be comprehensive. And because of the constraints of time and knowledge, the analysis is not very deep in some studies.更多还原