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基于传导路径的金融危机防范与危机治理研究

Research on Prevention Policy of Financial Crisis and Crisis Management on the Basis of Transmission Mechanism

【作者】 朱媛;

【导师】 陈建国;

【作者基本信息】 华南理工大学 , 金融学, 2010, 硕士

【摘要】 在经济全球化的趋势下,随着金融业的高速发展,金融危机频繁爆发,如1992-1993欧洲货币体系危机、1994-1995拉美债务危机、1997-1998亚洲金融危机以及2007年开始的美国次贷危机。金融危机表现出的密集爆发性、快速传染性也引发了学术界一轮又一轮的探讨。目前对金融危机传导机制的研究已经非常充分,但是没有针对危机传导路径的防范措施的专门性研究。金融危机爆发往往伴随着迅速的传导,如不能及时切断危机的传导路径,任其蔓延发展,则会对世界经济造成极大危害,同时,危机产生后的治理也至关重要。我国金融开放程度不断加深,但是还存在着市场经济体制不完善、经济金融法制不健全等问题,经济安全隐患不断增加。鉴于此,本文将从金融危机传导路径的角度研究金融危机防范政策和相应的治理方式。本文在注重可行性和操作性的指导思想下,收集国内外大量相关的文献资料和研究报告,运用逻辑分析、案例分析、规范研究的方法,将理论与实际、定性与定量相结合起来,研究分析金融危机防范与治理的有效对策。文章主要内容是研究基于传导路径的金融危机防范对策及被传染后的危机治理方式,并对中国应对亚洲金融危机及美国次贷危机的防范政策与治理效果做出评价,进而得出一套系统可行的、针对金融危机传导路径的防范对策与治理办法。本文结构分为四部分。第一部分结合金融危机传导机制、金融危机防范措施和危机治理方面的国内外研究成果,指出当前研究中的不足与发展方向,并提出本文的研究思路、方法及创新之处。第二部分以金融危机的传导路径为切入点,分析各传导路径下应采取的危机防范对策,以期通过切断危机的传导路径来阻止危机的传染。第三部分研究金融危机的治理方法,指出被传染后的危机治理应分为应急处理和后续治理两方面,通过“急救”和“调理”来治理金融危机,使经济运行恢复“健康”。第四部分介绍中国应对亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机传导的防范政策,并对防范政策和治理效果做出评述,根据我国目前在金融危机防范与治理上的问题,结合国际经验,提出中国式的防范金融危机的政策建议。

【Abstract】 With the trend of economic globalization and rapid development of the financial industry, the financial crisis outbreaks frequently, such as Monetary System crisis in Europe during 1992-1993, Latin American debt crisis during 1994-1995, Asian financial crisis during 1997-1998, as well as the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2007 The financial crisis broke out intensively and infectious rapidly has Cause of rounds of academic discussion. It has been a few studies of the transmission path for crisis prevention measures. If not cut off the transmission path of the crisis promptly, It’ll cause great harm on the world economy. With the deep openness of China’s financial, and there are problems as imperfect market economic system and financial legal system, all of these increase the risk. This paper study the policy and governance to prevent transmission path of financial crisis.This paper collected a large number of foreign literature and studies, using the method of logical analysis, case studies and standardized research, combining qualitative and quantitative research analysis to study of the financial crisis prevention and management of effective countermeasures. Based on the measures to prevent transmission path of the financial crisis, the paper commented China’s response to the Asian financial crisis and the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis, and then draw a set of feasible path for the Financial Crisis Prevention and Treatment Strategies.This paper is divided into four parts. The first part pointed out the deficiencies research in recently, and gived the forward ideas, methods and innovations of this research. The second part analyzed the method of preventing path of financial crisis, and hope to give the measures to cut off the conduction path to prevent the spread of the crisis. The third part is on research of the control methods of the financial crisis, and pointed out the infected crisis should be divided into emergency treatment and follow-up management. The fourth part introduced China’s response to the Asian financial crisis and the United States sub-prime mortgage crisis, and commented the prevention policies. According to our current financial crisis prevention and management, the paper proposed the measures that China’s policy recommendations to prevent the financial crisis.

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