中国商业银行效率实证分析

【作者】 李宁；

【导师】 侯力强；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 商业银行是我国金融体系的重要的组成部分,在我国国民经济和金融的运行中,商业银行发挥着金融中介、促进企业发展、优化资金配置、降低金融风险的重要作用,关系着我国经济发展的命脉。商业银行的效率高低,直接影响着我国经济的发展质量。随着金融改革的深化和我国金融领域的对外开放,商业银行面临着广阔的发展前景,同时也必须面对来自国内外的激烈竞争,在其自身的改革和发展中也存在着许多问题,直接影响商业银行效率的提高和竞争力的增强。为了测算我国商业银行的效率水平并分析商业银行效率的影响因素,本文收集包含我国四大国有商业银行在内的14家商业银行2000-2008年的一组数据,采用随机前沿分析法对2000-2008年期间、以样本中14家商业银行为代表的我国商业银行的X-利润效率和X-成本效率进行测算,观察效率水平的演进和现状。本文的测算结果显示,在2000-2008的九年间,我国商业银行的X-利润和X-成本效率在整体上均呈现逐年上升趋势,其中国有商业银行的平均X-效率绝对值低于股份制商业银行平均效率,但其效率增速高于股份制商业银行效率改进的增速；X-效率,特别是X-利润效率的演进呈现趋同态势。在测算得到商业银行效率的基础上,本文将可能影响商业银行效率的因素分为宏观因素、行业发展因素和银行经营状况三个层次,并引入相应变量进行计量分析。计量回归的结果显示,商业银行效率与宏观经济发展状况紧密相关；行业发展因素中,以M2/GDP表示的金融深化程度、全国工业企业平均销售利润率的提高对商业银行效率提高有积极作用,而中国银监会的成立对商业银行效率的影响值得关注；衡量银行的微观因素中,所有权结构是影响商业银行效率的重要因素；另外,中间业务发展程度较高的商业银行,其效率也较高。结合实证分析的结果,本文对商业银行进一步提高效率提出几点建议：深化金融市场改革,强化银行产权约束,进一步发挥市场监督力度,大力发展商业银行中间业务。更多还原

【Abstract】 Finance is the core of modern economy. As the most important part of China’s financial system, commercial banks are the lifeblood of economic development. In the development of China’s national economy and finance industry, commercial banks play the role of financial intermediaries, promoting enterprise development, optimizing capital allocation and reducing financial risks. The quality and efficiency of commercial banks will directly affect the quality of China’s economic development. With the deepening of financial reform, the call for financial liberalization, globalization and integration is growing, which brings opportunities as well as challenges to China’s commercial banks. With the opening up of China’s financial sector, commercial banks face tremendous pressure and there are some direct impacts on commercial banks’ efficiency and competitiveness.In order to measure the efficiency levels of commercial banks in China, this paper collected a set of data from the year of 2000 to 2008, including 14 Chinese major commercial banks such as four state-owned commercial banks and other national commercial banks. Through stochastic frontier analysis, this paper calculated the X-profit and X-cost efficiency of the selected commercial banks, showing the evolution and current status of commercial banks’ efficiency. In general, during the nine years from 2000 to 2008, China’s commercial banks X-profit and X-cost efficiency as a whole are increasing year by year; the average X-efficiency the state-owned commercial banks is lower than that of joint-stock commercial banks; speaking of the growth rate of X-efficiency, the growth rate of X-efficiency of state-owned commercial banks is higher than that of joint-stock commercial banks; in particular, the evolution of the efficiency of X-profit suggests a trend of convergence. Based on the efficiency of commercial banks, factor analysis is carried out in the later part of the paper. The efficiency factors are reclassified into three groups: macroeconomic factors, industry development factors and bank performance indicators. Regression results indicate that the efficiency of commercial banks is closely related with the macroeconomic factors, industry development factors, such as financial deepening (M2/GDP), average sales profit rate of China’s industrial enterprises. The establishment of the China Banking Regulatory Commission on commercial banks’ efficiency should be paid to particular attentions. Among the bank performance indicator, ownership structure is an important factor affecting the efficiency of commercial banks; In addition, higher levels of intermediary business of commercial banks, higher their efficiency. A few suggestions based on the results of empirical analysis to further improve the efficiency of commercial banks:deepening financial market reform, strengthening bank ownership restrictions and market supervision, developing intermediary businesses.更多还原