【作者】 梁怀宇；

【导师】 杨恒山；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古民族大学 ， 作物栽培学与耕作学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 气候变化是当前人类面临最大的环境问题,全球气候变暖将对农业产生越来越严重的影响。鉴于气候变化具有明显的地域性和西辽河平原为内蒙古自治区玉米主产区的实际,本文以通辽、开鲁和扎鲁特气象站的资料为代表,采用气候变化趋势分析、气候突变检验等方法研究了1951-2008年西辽河平原光、热、水资源的演变特征,并对研究地区地表水、地下水和农业用水量的变化进行了分析。在此基础上,采用“机制法”逐年计算玉米光合、光温和气候生产潜力,分析玉米生产潜力的变化趋势,并对玉米生产适应气候变化的对策进行了探讨。主要研究结论如下：(1)1951-2008年,年和生长季的日照时数及日照百分率均呈减少趋势。年日照时数减少速率为6.56h·(10a)-1,生长季日照时数减少速率为9.75h·(10a)-1。年日照百分率呈双波型变化。(2)1951-2008年,年平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、极端最低气温、极端最高气温、无霜冻期、界限温度持续日数及对应积温均呈上升趋势。其中,仅极端最高气温、≥0℃持续日数的趋势系数未通过显著性检验。在气候变暖的过程中,最低气温增温趋势最为明显,其趋势系数为0.85(P<0.01)：≤-20℃和≥30℃日数呈减少趋势,其中,≤-20℃日数减少趋势显著,趋势系数为0.61(P<0.01)：年平均温度在1991年前后发生突变。(3)1951-2008年,年降水量、蒸发量、≥50mm降水日数均呈减少趋势。年降水量变化呈双波型,在1971和1995年发生两次突变,且都是由多雨期转为少雨期：蒸发量在波动中减小,其趋势系数为0.33(P<0.01)。1978年以来,地下水埋深、超采区和漏斗区面积均明显增加；主要河道入境径流量减少；西辽河通辽站进入21世纪持续断流：农业用水量总体呈增加趋势,农业用水比例呈下降趋势。(4)1951-2008年光合、气候生产潜力均呈下降趋势,其趋势系数均未通过显著性检验；光温生产潜力呈上升趋势,其上升趋势并不明显：气候生产潜力与现实生产力的差值逐渐缩小。(5)鉴于西辽河平原气候变暖显著,玉米生产应采取适时早播、晚收,增加中晚熟品种比例,麦后复种青贮玉米等措施,以充分利用气候变化带来的热量增加。在降水减少的背景下,通过推广节水农业技术和实施人工增雨作业,应对干旱化的加剧,充分挖掘玉米的光温生产潜力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Currently, climate change is one of the serious environmrntal problems of the human facing, Global climate warming has more and more serious impacts on agriculture.In view of climate change has evident regional and the fact of the xiliao river plain is the main maize production region of inner mongolia, Taking the data from weather station in tongliao, kailu and zhalute as representative, applying climate change trend analysis approach and abrupt climate change test approach to study from 1951 to 2008 evolution of light, heat, water resources and effection on corn potential productivity in Xiliao river plain, and analysis the variety of surface water, ground water and agricultural water of study area. On the basis, calculate the light-temperature potential productivity, climatic potential Productivity, photosynthetic productive potential of corn according the mechanism method by year, analysis the trend of the light-temperature potential productivity. climatic potential productivity. photosynthetic productive potential of corn and study the countermeasures of corn production adapt to climate change. The main research achievements are as follows:There was a decreasing trend of the sunshine duration and sunshine percentage of year and growing season from 1951 to 2008. Sunshine duration of year and growing season decrease rate is respectively 6.56h·(10a)-1 and 9.75h·(10a)-1. The sunshine percentage show double wave variation.There was a increasing trend of annually mean temperature, annual minimum temperature, maximum temperature, extremely lowest temperature, extreme maximum air temperature, frost-free period, the day numbers of duration and corresponding accumulated temperature. In which, just extreme maximum temperature of average intervals with daily temperature≥5℃did not pass significance test. In the process of climatic warming, the trend of lowest temperature warming is the most obvious. the trend coefficient is 0.85 (P< 0.01); There is a decreasing tendency in intervals with daily temperature≤-20℃and≥30℃. In which, the tendency is obvious of intervals with daily temperature≤-20℃, the trend coefficient is 0.61 (P<0.01), annual mean temperature had mutations around 1991.There was a decreasing trend of the annual precipitation, annual evaporation, days with daily area rainfall from 1951 to 2008. The annual precipitation show double wave variation, there were two mutations respectively in 1971 and 1995, and both from pluvial period to less rain ones; evaporation deceases in fluctuation. the trend coefficient is 0.33 (P <0.01). After the 1978, there was a obvious increasing trend of groundwater depth、areas of groundwater over-exploited and funnel region; And a decreaing trend of main river runoff; the tongliao station of Xiliao river is entering continuous zero flow in the 21(st) Century; agricultural water consumption overall showed increasing tendency, the ratio of agricultural water consumption showed decreasing tendency.There was a decreasing trend of the photosynthetic productive potential, climatic potential Productivity from 1951 to 2008. The trend coefficient did not pass significance test; and a increasing trend of light-temperature potential productivity. but the trend is not obvious:the difference value of light-temperature potential productivity and light-temperature potential productivity reduced gradually.In view of obvious climate warming in Xi Liaohe River Plain, measures for maize production should be taken include early sowing at an appropriate time, late picking. increasing the proportion of late-maturing varieties and multiple cropping silage corn after wheat, to achieve the full advantage of the increasing heat because of climate changing. In the background of precipitation decreasing. by extending water-saving agricultural technology and carring out artificial precipitation enhancement. it is can cope with droughts of intensification, and fully excavates the light-temperature potential.更多还原