【作者】 李海丽；

【导师】 王雪青；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 核电项目风险评价对于减少事故引发的灾害,实施安全生产和保护资源与环境、保障可持续发展战略具有重要的意义,也是落实科学发展观的具体要求。由于种种原因,以前的核电项目风险很少进行评价,或者是在进行核电项目风险评价时缺乏系统的评价指标体系,评价方法缺少科学性和适用性。本文确立了核电项目风险评价的指标体系,构建了核电项目风险评价模型,改进了核电项目风险评价手段和方法。首先,根据核电项目管理的特点,依据项目评价指标体系设置的原则,构建了核电项目风险评价的指标体系。然后在专家评判的基础上,提出了核电项目风险指标权重的确定方法,并且利用模糊评价法来建立起核电项目风险的单因素模糊评价模型和多级模糊综合评价模型。在此基础之上,结合某核电项目进行了实证分析,对该项目分别进行了单因素模糊评价和综合因素模糊评价,并对评价结果进行了对比分析,结论表明,所建立的核电项目风险评价模型能帮助决策者在宏观和微观两个层面对核电项目风险水平有一个总体的把握,以利于做出科学的决策和制定出切实解决问题的方案。文章最后对核电项目风险评价模型的应用价值和应用条件做出了系统阐述,并就其应用前景做出了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Risk evaluation of nuclear power projects is very important for reducing accidents caused by disasters, forwarding the implementation of safe production, protection of resources and the environment, and improving the protection of the sustainable development strategy smoothly. In line with the principle of the scientific concept of development. Because of kinds of reasons, risk of nuclear power projects hardly was evaluated before, or done without systemic indicators, and the evaluation methods were also scarce of scientificity and applicability. This thesis has confirmed evaluation index system and formulated the evaluation model of nuclear power project risk; therefore, it improves the evaluation means and approaches of the nuclear power project risk. Firstly, according to the characteristics of the nuclear power project management and the principles of index system, setup the general evaluation index system of nuclear power project risk is proposed. Then, according to the characteristics of nuclear power project management, the thesis deduces the evaluation model for indicators’weight, and using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach to formulate single factor fuzzy evaluation model and multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Still, on the basis of above, a case study on a nuclear power project is applied to illustrate the application of the evaluation, and the results have shown the model can help decision makers know about the microcosmic side and macroscopical one of the situation of the nuclear power project risk evaluation, so as to make decision more scientifically, and find the schemes to solve the problems concerning nuclear power project risk evaluation. Finally, the thesis systematically explains the application value and condition of the evaluation model of nuclear power project risk, and also expects its application foreground.更多还原