【作者】 王文萱；

【导师】 关欣；

【作者基本信息】 湖南农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着两型社会的建设,长沙的发展将受到越来越多人的关注。房地产已成为国民经济的支柱产业,其市场波动直接对国民经济的发展产生重大影响。近年来,长沙市房地产持续稳定发展,价格低于同类城市,整个行业具有较大的上升空间。但是2008年以来,长沙房地产同全国其他城市一样,面临前所未有的挑战。虽然房地产价格稳中有升,但是其同比增长率出现明显下降,受到金融危机的影响,2009年长沙房地产价格出现下降的趋势。因此,长沙房地产市场波动趋势研究将对促进房地产稳定发展具有现实的指导意义。论文在学习借鉴国内外现有房地产周期理论研究成果基础上,通过对长沙市1996-2008年间的数据收集,建立房地产周期评价指标体系,利用时间序列模型进行房地产循环变动值的测算,通过扩散指数和综合指数的分析,证实了长沙市房地产发展具有周期性波动,并总结了周期波动特征。通过房地产周期影响因素的定性定量的分析,研究其变化对于房地产周期波动产生何种影响,其运行规律对于房地产周期波动具有一定的指导意义。结合长沙市房地产周期波动测定和影响因素对房地产周期波动的影响,提出了长沙市房地产市场持续、健康发展的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the construction of a resource-economical and environment-friendly society, more and more people pay close attention to the development of Changsha. Real estate has become one of the main industries of China’s national economics, its fluctuations has direct influence to the development of national economics. For the past few years, real estate of Changsha city was keeping steady progression; it has a very big chance because the price is lower than other capital cities. But form 2008, Changsha city will face unprecedented challenges just like the other cities. Even though the price has a little raise, but the growth rate appear obviously decline from years before. With the influence financial crisis, the price of Changsha city real estate appears to be slowing down in 2009. For that reason, the research of real estate fluctuations trend, which will be quite practical for the steady development of real estate in Changsha city.Base on the period in real estate industry theory research findings both here and abroad, we have built an assessment indicator system about the cycle of real estate industry with the date from 1996 to 2008. With the time sequence model, get the real estate cyclical fluctuation value after calculation. By analyzing diffusion index and composite index, we know that the real estate of Changsha city has a fluctuating period, and summing up the characteristic of it. With the qualitative and quantitative research of influence factor on the cycle of real estate industry, the laws of the factors have many meanings to it. At last, we have this advice to promote real estate to developing healthily and by order in Changsha city.更多还原