【作者】 陈瑶；

【导师】 李红兵；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 结构工程Ⅱ， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产投资是一项综合性、专业性、技术性极强的活动,同时也是一项高投入、高回报、高风险的投资过程。长期以来,我国房地产企业普遍存在风险意识不强的情况,在暴富心态的驱使之下,为追求巨额利润,很多企业盲目开发,从而造成了极大的风险。国内外教训说明房地产投资风险是当今世界共同面临的一个普遍问题,如果没有对房地产投资风险进行透彻分析而盲目投资,则企业失败就是必然的结局;如果没有对房地产投资存在的各种风险进行有效的控制,则国民经济发展、国家宏观调控、房地产投资主体结构、金融信贷政策以及外资管理等各个方面都会出现问题,进而影响整个国民经济的稳定和发展。因此,在当今风险日益增大的情况下,房地产投资风险评价的研究显得尤为重要。然而,房地产投资风险的复杂性、模糊性、不确定性给房地产开发商带来了极大的困难。传统的理论方法存在着许多不便和限制,尤其不能快速的评价房地产投资风险。本文通过国内外房地产投资风险评价研究的综述,提出了将人工智能领域的一门发展较为成熟的技术——基于案例推理,引入房地产投资风险评价研究中。从系统内外环境对房地产投资风险因素进行分析研究,包括宏观经济环境风险、市场经济环境风险、社会环境风险、政治环境风险、地域环境风险等房地产外部环境风险,以及施工环境风险、技术风险、管理风险和财务风险等项目内部风险,并从中选取定性和定量评价指标,构建基于案例推理的房地产投资风险评价体系,并对系统中的一些关键技术的实现策略进行了较详细的分析。本文试探性将基于案例推理技术应用到房地产投资风险评价中,突破了房地产风险评价的传统思维模式,在国内外研究中仍然处于一片空白,是一种新的尝试,在一定程度上丰富了房地产风险管理理论。其目的是把以前的经验优势利用起来,完成基于案例推理的房地产投资风险评价系统的设计和构造,实现资源共享,综合借鉴以前的房地产投资风险评价的成果,使风险评价更加快速、便捷。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real estate investment is a comprehensive, professional, highly technical activities, but also a high input, high return, high risk investment process. For a long time, with weak risk awareness and rich-quick mentality, driven under the pursuit of huge profits, many Chinese real estate enterprises develop blindly and result in great risk. Lessons at home and abroad demonstrate that real estate investment risks is a common problem that the world faces. If investment blind without analysis thorough of the real estate investment risk, the business failure is the inevitable outcome. If without controlling effectively various risks of the real estate investment, the development of national economy, national macro-control, the main structure of real estate investment, financial and credit policies, and foreign investment management, all aspects of problems will arise. And it will affect the stability and development of the entire national economy. Therefore, in the case of the risk increasing, it is particularly important that studying assessment of the real estate investment risk.However, the complexity, ambiguity, uncertainty of the real estate investment risk have brought great difficulties to the real estate developers. The traditional theory exist many inconveniences and restrictions, especially without a fast evaluation of real estate investment risk. Through studying domestic and foreign real estate investment risk evaluation, this paper proposes that case-based reasoning, which was a relatively mature technology with the development of artificial intelligence, can be introduced to the real estate investment risk evaluation. In this paper, it analyses the real estate investment risks from internal and external environment of the system, including external environmental risks such as the risk of macroeconomic environment, the risk of a market economy, social risk, political risk, geographical risk, as well as the project internal risk such as the construction of environmental risk, technical risk, management risk and financial risk. It selects qualitative and quantitative evaluation indicators, constructs case-based reasoning system for real estate investment risk evaluation, and detailed analysis implementation strategy of the key technologies in the system.This paper applies tentatively case-based reasoning to the evaluation of the real estate investment risk, which remains a blank at home and abroad, breaks through the traditional mode of real estate risk assessment. It is a new attempt that enriches the real estate risk management theories to some extent. Its purpose is to utilize advantage of previous experience, design and construct the real estate investment risk evaluation systems with case-based reasoning and achieve resource sharing. It learn from the previous real estate investment risk assessment and results to make risk assessment results more quick and convenient.更多还原