【作者】 姜晓勇；

【导师】 张勃；

【作者基本信息】 西北师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 黑河是我国典型的西北内陆干旱河流,上游地区是我国西部大开发战略实施的重点保障,上游的径流及气候的变化不但对中游和下游的径流有直接的影响,而且也会对中游和下游的水资源、生态环境以及经济和社会的发展产生重要的影响。近几十年来,由于黑河上游地区超载放牧,草场已经严重退化,鼠害严重,水源涵养能力大幅度下降。黑河上游地区人为取水较少,人类活动相对对径流的影响最小,因此,气候条件可能是影响黑河上游径流的主要因素。本文利用1960~2004年黑河上游地区6个气象站的年、季、月气温、降水、蒸发资料以及3个水文站的年、季、月径流资料,运用多种统计分析方法,对黑河上游地区气温、降水、蒸发、径流量的年际变化、年代变化、季节变化、突变、周期及其相关关系进行了详细的阐述。首先,利用气候倾向率法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法对气温、降水、蒸发及径流的变化趋势进行分析,其次利用Mann-Kendall和Pettitt突变检验法对气温、降水、蒸发及径流进行突变检验,再次利用小波分析的方法对气温、降水、蒸发及径流进行周期分析,最后利用相关分析、Partial Mann-Kendall统计检验、线性拟合得出径流变化同气温变化、降水变化、蒸发变化的详细关系,最终揭示径流变化的影响机制。研究表明:气温、降水和蒸发这三个气象因子中,径流量对降水量的响应最好,蒸发量次之,对气温的响应最差,降水量是影响这一地区径流量变化的主要因子;在只考虑降水的情况下,月平均流量和月降水量有很好的线性关系;莺落峡站的年径流量呈现出微弱的增加趋势,年径流量的微弱增加主要是由于春季特别是夏季降水量的增加以及夏季蒸发量的减少造成的;札马什克站的年径流量呈现出微弱的减少趋势,年径流量的微弱减少主要是由于春季特别是夏季降水的减少造成的;祁连站的年径流量呈现显著的增加趋势,年径流量的显著增加是由于春季特别是夏季降水量的增加以及四季蒸发量特别是春季和夏季蒸发量的减少造成的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Heihe river is a inland drought river in northwest, the upstream is key guarantee to implement the western development strategy, the runoff and climate change of upstream not only has directly influence on runoff in midstream and downstream, but also affect the water resource, ecological environment, economic and social development in midstream and downstream. In recently decades, due to the overload herds of upstream region, the pasture is severe degradation, rodent damage is serious, water conservation forest decline drastically, the water use of human in upstream is few, the human activity has little effect on runoff, and the climate condition is the major factor that affects the runoff in Heihe upstream.In this paper use the data of annual, season, month temperature, precipitation, evaporation from six meteorological stations and data of annual, season, month runoff in three hydrological stations, use several statistical methods, state the annual variation, chronological change, seasonal variation, mutation, periodical and correlation of temperature, precipitation, evaporation in upstream region.Firstly, do change trend analysis of temperature, precipitation, evaporation, runoff using linear trend analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test methods. Secondly, do abrupt change test of temperature, precipitation, evaporation, runoff using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt abrupt change test methods. Thirdly, do period analysis of temperature, precipitation, evaporation, runoff using wavelet analysis. At last, conclude the correlation between change of temperature, precipitation, evaporation and runoff using the correlation analysis, Partial Mann-Kendal test, linear fit, disclose the influence mechanism of runoff change.The results show: the three climate factors--temperature, precipitation, and evaporation, the runoff respond very well to precipitation, the evaporation take second place, the response of temperature is bad, the precipitation is the main factor that affect runoff change in this region; when we only consider the precipitation, the monthly runoff and monthly precipitation has a good linear fit; the increasing trend of annual runoff in Yingluoxia is not significant, this is due to the precipitation in summer and spring is increasing and the evaporation in summer is decreasing; the runoff of Zhamashike is declining, but the trend is not obviously, this is due to the precipitation in summer and spring is decreasing, especially in summer; the runoff in Qilian is drastically increasing due to the precipitation in summer and spring is increasing and evaporation in each season is decreasing, especially in spring and summer.更多还原