【作者】 祝璇；

【导师】 石培基；

【作者基本信息】 西北师范大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 土地是人类赖以生存、社会赖以发展的物质基础,土地可持续利用是可持续发展的基础,是协调人口、资源与环境的基础环节。随着人口持续增长,工业化、城市化快速发展,人地矛盾日益突出,如何在国民经济各产业、各部门之间合理分配有限的土地资源,促进土地资源利用集约化和可持续发展,成为亟待解决的问题。武威市是甘肃省河西走廊典型的绿洲城市,水资源严重短缺、农业灌溉耗水比例大,用水矛盾突出,土地资源利用盲目性大且利用效率低,生态环境退化严重。在水资源承载力一定的条件下,如何合理配置武威市的土地资源,达到生态、经济、社会综合效益的最大化,是实现可持续发展需要解决的重要问题。本文全面分析武威市水土资源的利用现状及存在的问题,在水资源承载力研究的基础上,进行土地资源利用的结构优化研究。主要包括以下内容:第一部分对武威市水资源和土地资源的概况进行分析。对武威市地表水资源系统、地下水资源系统、可利用水资源总量和开发利用现状进行阐述;对武威市土地利用现状结构、土地利用质量、土地利用程度和土地利用动态变化进行分析;提出水土资源利用中存在的问题。第二部分对武威市2005年、2006年水资源承载力进行计算,对2010年、2020年的水资源承载力进行预测。预测武威市及其各县区2010年、2020年的农业人口数、非农业人口数和工业产值,确定各部门用水定额,运用多指标综合评价方法研究武威市水资源承载力。通过研究得到,2005年、2006年武威市农业灌溉面积分别超载48675 ha、45285 ha,2010年、2020年分别超载13970.9 ha、13166.36 ha。第三部分在对水资源承载力分析的基础上,建立2020年武威市土地利用结构优化模型。此结构优化模型着重从土地利用的经济、社会、生态效益出发,设计各种限制条件,以经济效益最大化为目标,采用线性规划方法计算出各类用地的优化面积。通过对优化结果的分析可知,优化方案具有经济可行性、经济合理性和政策约束性等特点,能够满足水资源承载力的要求,并能较好地发挥武威市自然资源和社会经济资源优势,从而实现经济、社会、生态效益的协调统一。最后,通过对以上问题的分析,结合武威市的实际情况,提出实现武威市土地资源优化配置的建议和措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land is the material base of mankind existence and society development. Land sustainable utilization is an essential aspect to the sustainable development of human society since it acts as a hinge in interrelation among population, resource and environment. With the continuous increase of population as well as acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the contradiction between the people and the land has been more serious day by day. It has become an urgent problem to consider how to allocate the limited land resource among the different industries and departments of the nation reasonably and promote the optimal land utilization and sustainable development.Wuwei is the typical Oasis city in Hexi corridor of Gansu province. It is badly short of water, the proportion of water used in agriculture is very large and the contradiction of the water use is serious. The land resource uses freely and its efficiency is very low. The environment has been more serious day by day. In the situation of the limited water resource capacity, how to utilize the land resource of Wuwei to access the max of the goal of ecology、economic and social is an important issue to access the sustainable development. This article analyses the situation and the problem of the usage of water resource and land resource, studies the land structure optimization on the base of the water capacity. It concludes the three parts:Fist, it analyses the situation of the usage of water and land resource. It analyses the surface water resource system, the mass transit water resource system, the total of the water that can been used and the use situation; it analyses the situation of the land use structure, the quality of the land use, the degree of the land use and the dynamic change of construction land use; it proposes the problem of land use and ecology environment.Second, it analyses the water resource capacity of Wuwei in 2005 and 2006, and it predicts the water resource capacity of Wuwei in 2010 and 2020. It predicts the agriculture population, the nonagriculture population and the industrial value; it determines the fixed value of the water use; it uses the multiple indicator comprehensive evaluation methods to calculate the water resource capacity. It shows that, the agriculture land is more than the water capacity 48675ha in 2005、45285 ha in 2006, 13970.9 ha in 2010 and 13166.36 ha in 2020。Third, it builds the land use optimization configuration model on the base of analyzing the water resource capacity of Wuwei. The model whose goal is the max of the economic benefits has many restricted factors and uses linear programming methods to calculate the various land use indicators. By analyzing the result, we can see that the optimization measure is reasonable and feasible, and it can access the request of the water resource capacity, and it made the advantage of nature and social of Wuwei to be play, and it made the benefits of economic, social and ecology to be harmonized. Last, the article proposes advises and measure of the optimization configuration againsting the results and the situation of Wuwei.更多还原