【作者】 李一；

【导师】 李含琳；

【作者基本信息】 西北师范大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 人口与经济协调发展是指两者协同运作,相互适应,以一种合理的比例关系发展。当人口与经济发展相协调时,社会生产力能以较快的速度发展。若二者比例失调,人口发展速度超过经济发展速度,就会产生就业困难、入学困难、住房困难等一系列问题;经济发展速度若落后于人口发展速度,就会造成收入降低、消费低迷、投资下降、社会事业发展滞后等问题。改革开放以来,少数民族地区经济发展、社会稳定、人民生活幸福安康,人口与经济发展逐步走上可持续发展的道路。然而,由于少数民族地区(特别是西部少数民族地区)生产力水平较低,在发展的过程中,出现了不同于发达地区的低水平人口与经济协调发展状况,因此,如何制定具有针对性的人口战略和经济战略,就显得尤为重要。本文以甘肃省甘南藏族自治州(以下简称甘南州)为例,探讨了提高少数民族地区人口与经济协调发展水平的方案。本论文以科学发展观和经济学基础理论为指导,综合运用统计学、马克思主义“两种生产”论、西方经济学基础理论、资本有机构成理论、人力资本理论、系统工程论、社会经济调查分析等展开研究。在广泛听取当地政府部门和有关专家意见的基础上,结合研究区域特点和现状,将政府目标、文献研究、统计分析、预测结果、社情民意等有机结合,进行科学分析与研究,以期对区域发展状况有清晰的认识,为区域发展的政策制定提供科学的依据。全文共分为七章。第一章为绪论,介绍本文的选题背景、研究意义、国内外研究概况、论文相关理论基础、研究思路和方法。第二章为甘南州人口和经济发展现状,介绍研究区概况、人口和经济发展现状。第三章为甘南州人口与经济子系统发展水平评价,通过构建指标体系评价了两个子系统的发展水平。第四章为甘南州人口与经济发展的互动性分析,从人口数量、质量和结构三个方面与经济发展的互动性进行研究。第五章为甘南州人口与经济协调发展水平评估,利用弹性系数和协调发展度评价方法,评估甘南州及州内八县市人口与经济协调发展水平,并总结对人口与经济协调发展研究的一般性认识。第六章为甘南州人口与经济协调发展的政策建议,结合上文结论、2006～2020年人口预测及当地“十一五”发展规划,对区域发展提出政策建议。第七章为结语,总结本文的结论和创新点。通过本文的研究,形成了对人口与经济协调发展规律性的认识。在社会生产力和区域经济发展的不同阶段,人口与经济协调发展的状态不同,可分为低水平的人口与经济协调发展状态和高水平的人口与经济协调发展状态。在低水平条件下,人口子系统中人口数量比人口质量、人口结构对整个系统协调发展水平的影响大;经济子系统中收入、消费比投资、产值等要素对整个系统协调发展水平的影响大。在高水平条件下,则相反。现阶段,甘南州处于相对低水平的人口与经济协调发展状态,这就要求在新的战略机遇期,甘南州各族人民要以科学发展观为指导,以“五个统筹”来推进人口与经济建设,加强民族团结与合作,促进社会和谐与稳定,为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利而努力奋斗。更多还原

【Abstract】 Population and economic coordinated development refers to two systems do coordinated operation and develop in a reasonable property relation. When population is coordinated with economic development, the social productive forces can goes forward in a fast speed. If the two lack of proportion, that is, population development goes faster, will lead to a series of problems such as job-getting problem, enrolment problem and housing problem; in similar manner, if slower, will gets income reducing, consumption declining, investment declining, social undertakings lagging and so on.Since reform and opening-up, regions inhabited by ethnic groups are in a situation of economic advancing, social stable and life happiness which made the population and economic development in a sustainable way. However, because of the low production capability in these regions (especially western), the development process presents a low level population and economic coordinated development situation, which completely very from the developed regions in some extent. Therefore, how to draw up a pointed population strategy and economic strategy should be considered as a significant issue. This article takes Gansu Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture (Gannan for short below) as example, discusses the enhancing proposal of population and economic coordinated development in regions inhabited by ethnic groups.This article takes the scientific development theory and basic economical theory as the guidance, and consolidated utilizing the methods such as statistics, Marxist“two parturitions”theory, western basic economical theory, organic composition of capital theory, human capital theory, the system engineering theory and social economic investigation to do the research work. In taking the suggestions of local government branch and concerning specialists, to combine the investigated region’s characteristics and current situation, integrates government’s main aim, literature search, statistical analysis, predicted findings and public will, then, does scientific analysis and research in expectation of gets a clear cognition on current development situation, and for all, achieving the goal of provides a science basis for the policy making in this region. This article is organized into seven sections. The first deals with the subject chosen background, investigation significance, investigative thought and method, correlation study progresses at home or abroad and article correlation theoretical principle. The second discusses the general population and economic development situation of Gannan, which includes physical geography and current situation of population and economic. The third sets up a system of demographic and economic indicator as to assess the population subsystem and economic subsystem’s comprehensive development level in this region. The forth part does some interaction analysis on population development and economic development in Gannan from the population quantity, quality and structure. The fifth section presents assessment on Gannan population and economic coordinated development level by use the research approaches of elastic coefficient and coordinated development degree. The sixth puts forward a policy proposal to achieve the goal of coordinated developments of population and economic which based on the conclusions we got above, the population prediction in 2006-2020 and“the tenth five”development planning.The seventh includes the main peroration and creativities.According to the research findings of this article, forming knowledge of population and economic coordinated development regularity, that is, population and economic coordinated development logical relationship may varies at different stages of social productive forces and regional economic development, it divides into low level and high level situation. At the low level, population quantity is a much influential factor in the population subsystem than the other factors such as population quality and structure in the whole systems; in contrast, in the economic subsystem the more influential factor may be the revenue, consumer investment and output value. However, if the level is high, then reverse. At present, Gannan is in a stage of relative low level, this situation requires the sizing of new strategic opportunity; the processing of population and economic construction in the guidance of science development theory and“Five Plan”; the strengthening of nationality solidarity and cooperation; the advancing of social harmony and stability, struggling for new victory of the process of build a well-off society in an all-round way.更多还原