【作者】 程远；

【导师】 郑小平； 黄晋阳；

【作者基本信息】 北京化工大学 ， 应用数学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 高密集人群聚居场所的疏散问题,越来越受到社会的关注。对于疏散者行为的研究是疏散问题的基本问题。现有的模型中对疏散者行为的描述还停留在简单的参数设置上,对行人冲突与合作的分析尚没有完整的分析框架。而本文尝试应用微分动态博弈的方法对疏散者的行为进行了探索,通过求得的解析结果,可以在一定程度上对疏散者的行为进行解释。紧急状态下的心理分析是研究群体疏散过程中被疏散者行为的基础。本文首先提取了社会力模型中的各个心理因素,然后从心理学的视角进行了分析,建立起疏散心理的效用模型。最后基于疏散个体的效用,提出了微分动态博弈模型,并对被疏散者的竞争与冲突的行为进行了分析。通过博弈论的工具来研究群体疏散中的动态决策问题,可以发现合作在群体疏散的过程中起到非常重要的作用。竞争与合作是疏散过程中疏散人群主要表现的行为,而这两种行为可以通过博弈论的方法来研究。本文的研究结果将有助于分析群体疏散过程中的动态决策行为,从新的视角研究了疏散过程中行人的动力学特征,丰富了现有的疏散行为的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 The evacuation problem in a densely populated enclosure has more and more social concerns. The study on the behaviors of evacuee is fundamental to evacuation problem. The existing models for the behaviors of evacuees require fixed parameters and there are still not a complete framework of anaysis for rationality of evacuee’s coorperation and competition. This article is aimed at exploring the behaviors of evacuees by means of differential game theory and the resulting analysis can be used to explain their behavior in a simply fasion.Psychological analysis in an emergent situation is a key part to study the evacuation process. This article firstly extracted the psychological factors from social force model, and then established utility function from perspective of psychology. Furthermore based on this utility function game-theoretic model was proposed and corresponding competitive and cooperative behavors were discussed. It is found that cooperative behavior plays an important role in the evacuation process if game theory is applied to study such evacuation problem. Competition and cooperation are both the common behaviors for the evacuee which can be readily analysed by game theory.This research is useful to understand dynamic decision-making from a novel perspective. This model enriches the current behavioral models of evacation for the kinematic characteristics of crowd evacuation.更多还原