【作者】 刘香芹；

【导师】 吴英泽； 陈侠；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳航空工业学院 ， 计算机应用技术， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 群决策是现代决策科学的一个重要研究领域,它在经济、工程和军事等众多领域中有着广泛的应用和实际背景。由于在群决策中研究专家群体共识性问题和专家评判水平问题是群决策的两个很重要问题。所以关于这两方面的研究已经引起了有关学者的关注,但无论在理论研究,还是方法应用方面都还很不成熟。为此本文对群决策中数值决策矩阵的专家水平评判问题和专家群体判断共识性问题进行了相应的理论与方法研究,主要工作概括如下:(1)针对基于数值决策矩阵的评判专家水平与分类方法问题,给出了两种分析方法。根据每位专家与理想专家之间的偏差程度和两个专家之间的模糊关系矩阵,给出了基于数值决策矩阵的专家评判水平排序与分类方法一。通过定义每位专家因子得分及总因子的得分,提出了基于数值决策矩阵的专家评判水平的分析方法二。(2)针对基于数值决策矩阵偏好信息的专家群体判断共识性分析方法问题,通过定义共识性指标和每位专家与专家群体之间关于方案的偏差程度,给出了基于数值决策矩阵偏好信息的专家群体共识性的判断方法与专家群体不共识的调整方法。(3)针对基于区间数决策矩阵偏好信息的专家评判水平的评判与分类方法问题,通过定义专家给出的评价矩阵与专家群体评判矩阵之间关于元素的偏差程度,给出了基于理想点法的专家评判水平的分析方法。在论文最后,把多属性决策方法引用到高校教师教学水平评估中,给出了基于专家群体共识性的高校教师教学质量评估方法的应用案例。更多还原

【Abstract】 The research on group decision making (GDM) is an important field in decision making. It has extensive use and practical background in economy, society, management, military, engineering design and so on. There are two important problems to research on theory and methods for consistency analysis of expert group’s judgments and assessment level of experts in GDM, so the research on theory and methods for two problems has brought people wide attention. But but their development is not mature not only theory but also methods. Therefore the paper studies theory and methods consistency analysis of expert group’s judgments and assessment level of experts based on numerical decision matrix in GDM. The main research works are as follows:(1) With respect to the problem of assessment level of experts based on numerical decision matrix in GDM, two analytic methods for assessment level of experts based on numerical decision matrix are proposed. An analytic method for the preference information of numerical decision matric is proposed to solve the problem for ranking and classifying the assessment level of experts in terms of the deviation degree between every expert and ideal expert and defining the fuzzy relation matrix between two experts. Anther method for the preference information of numerical decision matric is provided by the factor score of every expert and overall factor score using the factor analysis method;(2) With respect to the problem of consistency analysis of expert group’s judgments based on numerical decision matrix in GDM, an analytic methods for consensus of group experts’ judgment and the improving approach to the non-consensus of group experts’ judgment based on numerical decision matrix are proposed by defining consistency index and the deviation degree between every expert and expert group about project;(3) With respect to the problem of assessment level of experts based on interval number decision-making matrix in GDM, An analytic method for the preference information of interval number decision matric based on TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarty to ideal solution) method is proposed by defining the relative deviation degree between the each element in judgment matrices given by experts and the corresponding element in expert group judgment matrix.In the last of the paper, the multi-attribute decision-making method was cited about teaching level assessment in college teacher; an application example of teaching quality in college based on expert group consistency is gived.更多还原