【作者】 李漫；

【导师】 吴良林；

【作者基本信息】 广西师范学院 ， 人文地理学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人类对土地利用的影响越来越大,随之产生的环境、资源等问题也引起人们的重视。本文通过选取河池市1999~2008年土地利用数据与相关统计资料,对10年来土地利用变化进行统计分析,分析影响河池市土地利用变化的驱动力,对河池市合理利用和保护土地资源,实现桂西北喀斯特山区土地资源可持续利用具有重要意义。本文研究主要内容包括:1、河池市土地利用变化特征研究。结合土地利用动态度、土地利用变化幅度、土地利用程度综合指数、土地利用类型相对变化率等来研究河池市1999~2008年土地利用/土地覆被的变化。分析表明:从土地利用变化幅度来看,交通运输增长幅度最大,林地增长幅度最小,其它农用地减少幅度最大;从土地利用动态度来看,1999~2008年其它土地变化最快,其次是交通运输用地;从土地利用程度来看,河池市总土地利用程度变化率为0.001,处于发展状态;从土地利用区域差异来看,河池市管辖的1区1市9县的土地利用类型变化存在差异性,总的来看,水利设施差异性最大,其他农用地差异性最小。2、河池市土地利用变化的驱动力研究。定性分析和定量分析结合,借助统计分析软件SPSS的相关分析法和主成分分析法,选取与社会经济相关的变量,探讨河池市土地利用变化的驱动因素,分析表明社会人文因子是影响河池市土地利用变化的主要因子,包括人口增长、经济发展和交通设施变化、城镇化水平提高。3、河池市土地利用变化预测。借助灰色模型GM(1,1)对河池市未来的土地利用变化进行预测,预测结果显示:耕地、牧草地、其他农用地和未利用地面积逐渐减少,园地、林地、居民点及工矿用地、交通运输和水利设施逐年增加。4、河池市土地可持续利用对策。根据对河池市土地利用驱动力分析得出的结论,提出河池市土地可持续利用的对策,即优化土地利用结构、控制人口规模、重视生态环境治理等。更多还原

【Abstract】 As with human impact on land use, problems about environment and resources resulted from it have attracted people’s attention. By selecting the land use data and related statistical data of Hechi City from 1999 to 2008, this article statistically analyzes the change of land use in Hechi City in recent ten years, reveals the driving forces which have affected the land use change/cover in the past ten years. It is a great significance to rational use and protection of land resources of Hechi City, to the achievement of the sustainable use of land resources in Karst mountain areas of Guangxi’s western mountain areas. The main contents are as follows:1. Some mathematic models are used to research the change of land use and land cover from 1999 to 2008 in Hechi City, such as land-use dynamic degree model, the land-use change range model, the composite index of land-use degree, the relative change in the type rate of land use. The results show that seen from the change range of land-use, the greatest growth is transportation, the smallest growth is forest land growth, the sharpest declines is other agricultural land; seen from the dynamic degree of land use, other land was changing fast from 1999 to 2008; seen from the composite index of land-use degree, the rate of the total land use degree is 0.001, in a period of developing; seen from regional differences in land-use, there are some differences in land-use types of Hechi City. On the whole, the biggest difference is in water conservancy facilities, and the smallest difference is in other land.2. The research of driving forces on the change of land use in Hechi City. Combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, by means of the statistical software SPSS, using its correlative analysis and principal components analysis, choosing some variants related to economics and social to pursue the driving forces of the land-use change in Hechi City. The results indicate that the social and human factors are the main factors affecting the change of land-use in Hechi City, including the population growth, the development of economy and transportation, the level of increased urbanization increased.3. Prediction of the land use change of Hechi. By means of the Gray Model to predict the coming years’change of land use, the prediction shows that arable land、meadow、other agricultural land and unused land are decreasing, and garden plot、forest land、settlements and mining、transportation and water conservancy facilities are increasing.4. Sustainable land use countermeasures of Hechi. According to the analysis of driving forces of Hechi, make some suggestions are made for Hechi: to optimize the land use structure, to control population scale, and to pay attention to ecological environmental governance and so on.更多还原