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出口退税对我国出口贸易的影响分析

Study on the Effect of Export Tax Rebate on China’s Export Trade

【作者】 乌日娜

【导师】 赵益平;

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 , 产业经济学, 2011, 硕士

【摘要】 我国自1985年开始实施出口退税政策,出口退税政策是一个国家为提高出口商品竞争力而运用的一种财政手段,主要是通过调整出口商品的出口退税率来影响出口成本,从而达到促进商品出口的目的。我国政府自1994年税制改革以后,逐渐把出口退税政策作为宏观调控的重要手段之一,针对经济运行的实际情况,多次调整出口退税率,以达到促进我国出口贸易增长和优化出口商品结构的目的。由此看来,研究出口退税对我国出口贸易的影响具有十分重要的意义。本文首先对我国出口退税政策实施以来的调整进行了历史回顾,从静态效应和动态效应两个方面分析了出口退税影响我国出口贸易的途径和机制。在理论分析的基础上,收集相关数据进行定量分析,直观地反映出我国出口总额和出口商品结构的变化。通过对1985-2010年的出口总额和出口退税额进行协整分析,得出我国出口总额和出口退税额之间存在长期均衡关系的结论。针对2004年后,我国为了优化出口商品结构所采取的一系列“有保有压”的政策调整,收集2000-2008年我国主要行业的出口额和出口退税率,建立面板数据模型进行分析,结果表明出口退税政策调整对不同行业的影响幅度是不同的。总体上起到了限制“两高一资”产品出口,促进高新技术产品出口的作用,有利于优化我国的出口商品结构。最后本文针对我国现行出口退税制度存在的问题,结合实证分析的结果,提出相关政策建议。

【Abstract】 China implemented the export tax rebate policy since 1985.The export tax rebate is a financial means used by a country to improve the competitiveness of its export products,and it influences the cost of exports by adjusting the export tax rebate rate of goods, so as to achieve the purpose of promoting the export of goods.China’s government used the export tax rebate policy as an important means of macroeconomic control after the tax reform in 1994.The government has adjusted the rate of export tax rebate several times according to the economic operation,in order to promote China’s export trade growth and optimize the structure of export commodities. From this studying the export tax rebate on the impact of China’s export trade is very important.The article makes a historical review of the adjustment to export tax rebate policy in China firstly, and furthermore this paper analysis the channels and mechanisms from static and dynamic effects of two aspects. Based on the theoretical analysis, the article collects the data to make quantitative analysis to reflect the changes of the country’s total exports and the structure of export commodities directly. And this paper makes the cointegration analysis of China’s total export volume and export tax rebate from1985 to 2010,and the conclusions is that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China’s total export volume and export tax rebate. Because China adopted a series of policy adjustments including maintain and pressure after 2004 to optimize the export structure, the paper builds a panel data madel on the amount of industry export and its tax rebate from 2000 to 2008,and the result shows that export tax rebate policy adjustment made different impact of different industries. The adjustment of tax rebate policy has basically achieved its goal, that is, it has shut down on the export of high pollution, high energy consumption and resources products, give an impetus to the export of technique products, and optimized the export structure.Finally, this article coneludes that China’s export tax rebate system problems, combined with the results of empirical analysis, put forward a sound policy recommendations for China’s export tax rebate.

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