【作者】 姚佳；

【导师】 任碧云；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 硕士

【副题名】基于1996-2010年时间序列数据的分析

【摘要】 美国次贷危机爆发之后,各国纷纷出台一系列的政策应对次贷危机的影响。中国人民银行从2008年9月起当年连续四次下调存款准备金、五次下调存贷款基准利率,并相继出台了一系列宽松的货币政策,以达到促进经济增长的目标。在上述措施的作用下,2009、2010年中国GDP增长率分别达到8.7%和10.1%,货币政策发挥了显著效果。如何利用货币政策发挥逆周期的效果来应对经济波动,是中央银行关注的问题。因此,文章试图分析货币供应量与经济周期的关系,以便更好地指导货币政策发挥熨平经济周期波动的作用。1996年中国人民银行正式将货币供应量M1作为中介目标、M2作为观察目标加以调控。因此文章选取M2为货币供应量的指标,GDP为经济周期的指标,利用1996-2010年货币供应量和经济增长的数据,从理论和实证两方面讨论二者之间的关系。文章首先通过图表描述初步判断货币供应量与经济周期之间的关系,之后运用VAR模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法进行实证检验,探究货币供应量对经济周期的影响程度及其时滞。通过理论和实证分析得出下列结论：货币供应量对经济周期具有影响,影响时滞大约为半年。在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议,即：提高对货币供应量的控制力、明确货币供应量的调节时间点以及货币政策由控制总量转向优化结构等。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, many countries have issued a series of policy in order to eliminate the influence of the subprime crisis. The people’s bank of China cut the deposit reserve four times and cut the interest rates five times since Sep.2008, at the same time it issued a series of loose monetary policy in order to achieve the goal of promoting economic growth. Under the above measures, in the year 2009 and 2010, Chinese GDP growth achieved respectively 8.7% and 10.1%, monetary policy played a significant role. How to use monetary policy to inverse cycle in order to respond to economic volatility is concerned topic of the central bank, therefore, this thesis attempts to analyze the relations between money supply and business cycle, draw the conclusion, in order to guide monetary policy to inverse the business cycle fluctuations.In 1996, the people’s bank of China formally set money supply M1 as intermediary goal, M2 as observation target to regulate, without taking other economic variables into consideration, the thesis selected M2 as money supply index, GDP as business cycle index, using the data from 1996 to 2010, taking theory and empirical analysis. This thesis firstly uses the chart to describe t the relationship between the money supply and the business cycle and make preliminary judgment. Then the thesis uses VAR model, Granger test, impulse response and takes empirical research method to explore the impact of the money supply to the economic cycle and time lag.Through theoretical and empirical analysis the thesis obtains the following conclusion:the money supply has influences on business cycle, the time lag is about half a year. Based on this, the thesis puts forward the relevant policy suggestions: improve the control of the money supply, explicit the time point to adjust the money supply and turn monetary policy from the quantity control to optimize the structure, etc.更多还原