第三产业的发展对大学生就业的影响研究

【作者】 刘丽；

【导师】 薛冰；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 行政管理学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 第三产业发展缓慢与大学毕业生就业难是我国面临的比较棘手的两大社会经济问题。本文从分析产业结构由低到高的演化过程出发,研究了我国的产业结构和大学毕业生就业的现状,联系我国“十二五”期间第三产业内部结构调整及其对大学生的人才需求预测。得出了加大第三产业发展是解决大学生就业问题的重要途径,并在此基础上对我国的产业结构升级和大学生就业提出了建议。首先论述了产业结构的发展历程,得到了随着经济的日益发展第三产业在产业结构中的比例必将越来越大的结论。根据第一、二、三产业就业弹性比较,指出第三产业必然成为劳动力就业的主力军,新兴第三产业必然成为大学生就业的阵地。发展第三产业,尤其是新兴第三产业,如房地产业、商务服务业、信息传输、计算机服务和软件业、金融业、卫生、社会保障业、社会福利业、科技服务业,是解决大学生就业难问题的有效措施；其次,通过采集改革开放后第三产业就业数据,并利用EViews软件对第三产业就业人数与人均国民生产总值数据样本进行回归分析。采用格兰杰因果检测方法对两者因果关系进行检验,证明了第三产业就业人数与人均国民生产总值两者之间存在密切的因果关系,其中人均国民生产总值增加是第三产业就业人数变大的格兰杰原因,并得到了人均国民生产总值影响第三产业就业的自回归分布滞后模型,对我国的第三产业的就业容量作了回归预测；再次,通过采用二次规划法确定权值,引入加权预测模型,并对回归预测、指数平滑预测和灰色系统预测结果进行加权,得到了精确程度较高的第三产业就业预测值,从而克服了单一预测方法的片面性。接着对城镇第三产业中大学生选择就业成功率比较高的行业就业人数的预测,并且同近几年大学生毕业人数比对,指出我国大学生就业的严峻形势与产业结构不合理,新兴第三产业不发达有密切的相关性。最后,将我国的产业结构与发达国家进行了横向对比,得到我国产业结构不合理,第一产业就业比例过大,第三产业,尤其是新兴第三产业发展缓慢的产业结构现状,提出调整产业结构,增大第三产业比例,大力发展新兴第三产业,如房地产业、商务服务业、信息传输、计算机服务和软件业、金融业、卫生、社会保障业、社会福利业、科技服务业,增加大学生就业机会的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is two severe social problems that the tertiary industry develops slowly and college graduates are not employed. After the analysis of evolvement of industrial structure, this thesis studys the status of our industrial structure and college graduate’s employment, and concludes that increasing the development of the tertiary industry is a key of promoting college graduate’s employment, then forecasts the quantity of employee in our tertiary industry during "twelve five-year plan". Later, the paper gives some advice about the upgrading of our industrial structure and college graduate’s employment, and analyzes how to relieve pressure of college graduate’s employment by adjustment of industrial structure and development of emerging tertiary industry. The work of this paper is followed:Firstly, the thesis introduces the evolvement of industrial structure, give a conclusion tertiary industry take up higher proportion of industrial structure with the progress of economy. By comparing the elasticity of employment of primary industry, second industry and tertiary industry, we find tertiary industry can be a centre of labor force, emerging teriary industry can be a centre of college graduates. Increasing the development of the tertiary industry, especially Real Estate, Business Services, Information Transmission Industry, Computer Services, Software Industry, Finance, Health Care, Social Security, Social Welfare, Technology Services, a key of promoting college graduate’s employment;Secondly, we collect the quantity of employee in the tertiary industry, make a regression analysis of quantity of employee in the tertiary industry and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product by using EViews software package. After our making a verification on the causality between them by using the Granger Causality Test Method, it is proven that the quantity of employee in the tertiary industry is in positive correlation with Per Capita Gross Domestic Product and there is inherent causality between them, and Per Capita added value Gross Domestic Product is an important driver the increment of employee in the tertiary industry. Then we give an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model, and forecast the quantity of employee in the tertiary industry;Thirdly, we recommend a forecasting model with weights, get every weight of the model by quadratic programming, and give every forecasting value of regression, exponential smooth and gray system a weight, later obtain an accurate one with overcoming demerit by a single forecasting, and forecast the quantity of employee in several emerging branches which is friendly to college graduates,and conclude that it is irrational industrial structure, slow growth of the emerging tertiary industry why college graduates’ job-hunting is unsatisfied;Finally, by comparing our industrial structure with developed country’ one, the thesis get a conclusion that our industrial structure is irrational and the tertiary industry grow slowly,especially emerging tertiary industry, give some policy advice that we should promote college graduates job-hunting by industrial restructuring and fast growth of emerging tertiary industry,such as Real Estate, Business Services, Information Transmission Industry, Computer Services, Software Industry, Finance, Health Care, Social Security, Social Welfare, Technology Services.更多还原