【作者】 杨涛；

【导师】 汪洋； 董藩；

【作者基本信息】 华南理工大学 ， 项目管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 追溯我国房地产业发展,可以从1979年的住房制度改革开始,但严格意义上的中国房地产市场是1992年之后开始发展的。由于传统观念阻挠和条件限制,政府和企业对市场发展趋势和需求的分析环节都相对薄弱。房地产理论界亦一直停留在我国住房制度改革的目标模式的讨论上,因此,在宏观政策及住宅市场价格影响的研究上就相对滞后。在此背景之下,论文对中国房地产住宅项目的一个项目(W公司的EXT高层住宅项目)的商品房产品定价问题,进行了研究。房地产价格是一个十分复杂的系统,同样,商品房的定价过程也是一个非常复杂的系统分析过程与决策过程。影响其价格的因素众多,从宏观政策到市场与营销因素,再到项目本体资源条件,以及企业所寄托于项目的战略发展远景、品牌期望与盈利目标等纷繁复杂。伴随随着行业发展与日趋成熟的项目运营,越来越多的房地产专家学者、金融机构、政府官员和房地产企业意识到,充分理解并探究影响住宅价格的因素,是行业政策制定、投资分析以及企业开发决策的关键。在我国,近年来已有部分研究开始引入国外相对成熟的理论与经验,尝试构建适合我国国情的城市住宅价格模型,并用定量分析方法研究住宅价格问题。但是,因为房地产项目具有复杂性与异质性特点,大多数研究工作仍停留在以描述性为主的定性分析上,而对于住宅价格影响因素、各因素对住宅价格变化的影响程度,以及具体项目如何定价等问题,还没有可被政府、学界与企业方共同认同与接受的系统方法。在城市化发展(中国下一个可持续发展30年的内在驱动力)背景下,本论文选择了引领中国房地产业先河,并一直被视为房地产业改革与发展风向标之一的一线中心城市——广州的某住宅项目(EXT),并对其商品房价格进行实证研究,尝试通过对当前房地产价格理论及统计数据分析的研究、继承与修正,以建立因素筛选,以及基于宏观与中观分析模型为基础的,结合目前房地产市场的常用定价方法(市场比较法定价)及企业的项目开发实践,理论与实证结合,深入研究影响我国商品住宅价格变动的因素,具有一定的理论创新性,也具有较高的实际应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ascend to the real estate industry history of China, it usually regarded been come out of housing system reform in 1979. Strictly speaking, China real estate market should be counted underway start since the end of 1992.As long as the traditional conception counteract and actual restriction, the housing welfare which issued by government still was followed and executived by the end of 1998. Two of the most important factors, namely the buyer, and the relationship of market supply and demand, respectively were corporate consumption and supplier’s market. It caused that market analysis and industrial development trends were all not so attentioned by governmentors and enterprisers. On the other side, housing system reform’s target model always suspendingly been discussed and excessive theorization, it undoubtedly make the researches on policy and house price delayed.The house price is a complicated system, while the commodity housing price-making is really also a kind of systematic engineering and analysis course. House price was influenced by numberous factors such as governmental policy, sale and marketing, as well included the project resource characters, strategy and brand development demand, profit target and diversed motivation or expectation. But, with the development of real estate industry and optimization of projet management, more and more insiders who involved expert, professor, financial institutor, governor and developer, all of them began to realize that it’s necessary for policy making, investment analysis and project decision-making to wholly understand those indeep factors, which undoubtedly influence house priceAs we known, in order to establish the appropriate urban housing price model which could be matched to Chinese actual situations, some oversea advanced theories and practical experience has been introduced to several domestic researches, and the quantitative analysis approaches have been used into study. Unfortunally, real estate project has several comprehensive attributes such as complexity and heterogeneity, it made most of relative researches still focused describing or sketching housing price itself. On the contrary, we have been ignoring those key factors that really influenced housing price as internal reasons. In fact, we didn’t know how they happened, and so didn’t the mutural-relationship between them. Herein has not any one available integrated systematic model could be the acknowledged approaches for both private developers and public parties, namely the governmentors and academician to make the successful housing price for a special real estate project. It’s well known that China has been developing with world-recognized perfect achievements for nearly 30 year since the opening and reforming policy performed. China Urbanization would be the next economic engine to make Chinese next 30-year-development prospects accomplished with dynamics and stabilization.As the master-degree papers, I chose the symbol residential project object which has been constructed in one of these publicly ranked 1nd tier Chinese cities. And the city is Guangzhou, the central city of south China and always recognized as the trend-mark in domestic real estate industry. In my research, the wholly-new housing price-making model, which I named it as Systematic Housing Price Model (abbr. S Model) has been established on the price model theory and additionally buildup number of original housing price-making approaches, house price statistics to come up with the price systematic index involved macro and mid-market model. All what have done and completed in research papers would be much more practical values for some representative real estate project and their relatively available price to maket. It undoubetly be benefited to real estate industrial healthy development and valuable for numberous private delopers to well finish those similar projects.更多还原