【作者】 姚瑶；

【导师】 邵国华；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的不断发展和改革的不断创新,股票市场的发展和成熟显得尤为重要,股票市场在国民经济发展中的作用也越来越大。因此,本文研究了1991年到2009年我国股票市场和经济发展的状况,其核心内容是采用实证分析,研究我国现阶段股票市场与经济增长的关系,并分析了目前我国股票市场与经济增长关联性不强的原因所在,对于存在的问题提出了对策。全文共分为七章：第一章是引言,介绍了研究的背景和意义、研究的内容、方法,以及本文的主要观点和创新点。第二章是相关的文献综述。本章对有关股票市场与经济增长关系的国内外研究做了文献综述,认真地剖析了国内外学者对股市和经济增长关系的不同看法：有的学者认为股票市场仍然是经济的晴雨表,而有的学者认为股票市场波动与我国经济周期已经脱节了。第三章是我国股票市场与经济增长相互关系的分析,分为理论分析和现状分析。首先是基于虚拟资本的角度去考虑两者的关系：描述了经济发展是股票市场的基础,经济的良好运行,会带来健康的股票市场,微观经济基础和宏观经济基础对以股票市场为主体的虚拟经济产生决定性的作用。另一方面,股票市场对经济发展具有反作用,这种反作用是双向的,股市从筹集资金、提供流动性、分散风险、促进经济发展方式的转变等方面促进了经济增长,从高风险性、投机性、非理性等方面阻碍了经济发展。接着分析了帕加罗的内生凸性增长模型,说明了股票市场促进经济增长的因素,然后通过财富效应和托宾的q理论分析了股票市场的传导机制。最后是两者关系的现状分析,我国股票市场是从1990年12月和1991年6月成立了上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所开始的。本文选取了1991年—2009年国内生产总值GDP和沪深两市的股指的数据,分析得出股票市场和经济发展是相联系的,但是这也不意味着两者发展的周期就是同步的,主要表现在总量的偏离和发展速度的偏离两个方面。第四章我国股票市场发展与经济增长关系的实证分析。选取了2000年到2009年的各季度的GDP、市价总值、股票成交额的数据,对它们进行处理获得了资本化率、周转率、季度交易率,然后建立向量自回归模型,进行单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验。从而得出结论：经济的增长与股票市场的发展存在着长期的关系,主要表现在：股市的规模以及流动性与经济的增长是呈反向变动的,股市规模的扩大会引起经济的增速放慢甚至是减速,流动性的提高也会阻碍经济的发展,经济的发展也会受到周转率的影响。但是两者的相关性不是很强,因果关系几乎不存在,这就使得经济发展和股票市场不存在同步性,甚至出现背离。第五章我国股票市场与经济发展弱相关的原因探析。本章从公司的制度、质量效率、相关法律法规的缺失、股票市场的制度缺陷等方面分析。为此,在第六章中提出了具体的对策：规范现代企业制度建设,实现公司法人治理结构：规范投资者的行为,积极培育和发展战略投资者；规范证券市场的各种机制,主要有发行制度、交易制度、信息披露制度、退市制度等等；补充和修订现有的证券法律法规,并且完善证券市场的监管制度……第七章得出本文的结论：我国股票市场规模与经济增长之间存在着一定的关系,主要表现在：股市的规模以及流动性与经济的增长是呈反向变动的,股市规模的扩大会引起经济的增速放慢甚至是减速,流动性的提高也会阻碍经济的发展,同时经济的发展也会受到周转率的影响。此外,通过格兰杰因果关系检验出股票市场规模,流动性与经济增长之间的双向因果关系均不存在,说明从长期来看,股票市场和经济发展并不存在着长期的均衡关系,相关关系不显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the economic development and reform, development and maturity of the stock market is particularly important, the stock market’s role in national economic development is also growing. Therefore,this study research the situation of stock market and economic growth from 1991 to 2009,the thesis adopts positive analysis method to study the relationship between stock market and economic growth.Based on this,we analyze the reason why the stock market has a weak correlation with the economic growth,and bring the relevant strategies.This thesis contains seven chapters.The first chapter is an introduction,describes the background、significance、the content、methods、the main points and innovation.The second chapter is literature on research development, analyzes different views of the domestic and foreign scholars on the relationship between economic growth and stock market,some scholars believe the stock market is still the barometer of the economy, but some think they have been out of touch.In chapter three,we elucidate the relationship between economic growth and stock market, divided into theoretical analysis and status analysis. The first is based on the perspective of virtual capital to consider the relationship, economic development is the basis of the stock market. The good performance of the economy will bring a healthy stock market, microeconomic foundation and macroeconomic fundamentals have a decisive role in the virtual economy. On the other hand, the stock market have reaction to economic development, this reaction is two-way, stock market can raise funds to provide liquidity, risk diversification, and promote economic development,but it has high risk, speculative and irrational. Then analyze the convexity of Pa Jialuo endogenous growth model, illustrate factors of stock market promote economic growth. Then through the wealth effect and the Tobin’s q theory, illustrate the transmission mechanism of stock market.Finally, analysis of the status of the relationship, we set up the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in December 1990 and June 1991.This paper selects 1991-2009 GDP and gross domestic product datas on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock,we obtain results:the stock market and economic development are linked, but this does not mean that the two development cycles are synchronized, the total deviation and rate of development are deviation.Chapter four is Empirical Analysis. Selected and dealed with each quarter of GDP, market capitalization, stock turnover datas from 2000 to 2009, we obtain CAP、TUR and val,, then create VAR model、ADF、Johansen cointegration test、ECM and Granger causality test.The conclusion is that economic growth and the stock market have long-term relationship, stock market size and liquidity are In contrast with the economic, while economic development will also be the impact of TUR.But correlation is weak, causality is almost non-existent,these make stock market and economic growth are not synchronized,even divergence.In chapte five,we analyse the reasons of the weak relationship,such as the company’s system、quality efficiency、the lack of relevant laws and regulations and deficiencies in the system the stock market. So,we put forward material policy in chapter six,such as establishing modern enterprise system,perfecting corporate governance,establishing some laws and regulations,strengthening stock market mechanisms an so on.In the last chapter,we obtain the conclusion. There is some relationship between China’s stock market and economic growth, stock market size and liquidity are In contrast with the economic, while economic development will also be the impact of TUR.In addition, stock market size, liquidity and economic growth do not exist in the two-way causality,these illustrate stock market and economic development is not a long-term equilibrium relationship exists in the long run.更多还原