【作者】 刘娜；

【导师】 韩宝明；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的快速发展,轨道交通的建设发展进入高峰期。随之而来的是在轨道交通运营过程中客流的不均衡性较严重,目前已开通的线路普遍存在高峰时期客流拥挤过渡,平峰时期客流寥寥无几的局面。是客流预测与实际客流差异造成的还是运营组织措施不当还是其他原因造成当前的困局,需要深入研究客流,进而提高轨道交通的服务质量,更好的发挥其解决路面交通拥堵的作用,为人们提供便捷的交通服务。本论文以北京市轨道交通建设管理公司委托的客流后评估项目为依托,依据客流的内涵及特征构建了客流后评估体系,并首次给出了轨道交通客流后评估的定义。在此基础上,深入分析了影响轨道交通客流的因素,以实际数据为基础总结了轨道交通的客流特征,为客流后评估指标体系的构建提供依据。基于客流的组织及运营安全的角度,以实用性为出发点,研究了如何对客流进行后评估。客流后评估体系包括以下六部分：后评估的内容、后评估的方法、后评估的步骤、后评估时限的选择、后评估数据的收集、后评估指标的选取。后评估的内容包括：客流均衡性、客流量增长、客流发展趋势。其后评估方法依据客流特征规律采用定性对比法与定量对比法,并结合客流预测及客流发展趋势界定了客流后评估的时限。本文重点研究了客流后评估指标体系的构建,以PSR框架模型为基础,结合PSR框架模型与客流后评估指标的特点分别构建了车站客流后评估指标体系、线路客流后评估指标体系、网络客流后评估指标体系。对客流进行后评估研究是为了解开现存的轨道交通客流困局,并为客流预测及轨道交通的运营提供可行建议。为了验证客流后评估体系以及客流指标,以北京地铁5号线为例,进行了客流后评估。针对5号线的具体问题提出客流预测以及运营组织的可行性建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid economic development, urban rail transit’s construction is coming to the peak. But in the operating of rail transit,the non-equilibrium factor of passenger flow is more serious. At the present time, passenger volume are too many over the diode current capacity during the peak time, and in the peak absences is opposite. The difference between operation passenger and predicted passenger need to research. The result is to improve service quality of rail transit, bring into play a role in resolving traffic above-ground, supply convenience service for people.According to the meaning and characteristics of passenger flow,the paper constructed post-assessment system. It gives the definition of post-assessment passenger flow for urban rail transit.On the basis of this, it analyses deeply influencing factors of rail transit passenger flow, summaries the characteristics of rail transit based on the actual data of passenger flow. All of this provide the basis for construction of the post-assessment index system.Based on the organization of passenger flow and operation safety, in the view of practicability,the paper studied the way to assessment passenger flow. The post-assessment passenger flow system includes the content, methods, steps, the choice of time limit, data collection, index selection. The content is consist of passenger flow proportionality, passenger flow increasing, passenger flow development trend.According to the characteristics of passenger flow, the paper applies qualitative comparison and quantitative comparison and combines passenger flow forecast with passenger flow development trend to define time limit of post-assessment. Based on the PSR model, the paper constructed post-assessment index system of passenger flow.The system includes post-assessment index system of station passenger, line passenger, network passenger. This paper study on the post-assessment of passenger flow is in order to solve the existing dilemma for rail transit, and supply feasible advice for passenger flow forecast and operation of rail transit.Then,this paper takes the Beijing subway line 5 as an example to verify the post-assessment system and index of passenger flow. And it aims to the specific issue of line 5 to provide feasible suggestions for passenger flow forecast and operation.更多还原