【作者】 陈洁；

【导师】 吴宇哲；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 城市用地规模在很大程度上反映了城市社会、经济、生态的综合发展状态。城市用地规模的合理与否直接体现了城市发展的健康程度,在人多地少的基本国情下,更直接关系到城市、区域甚至国家的可持续发展问题。当前,中国进入城市化的快速推进时期,城市用地规模空前增大、给中国耕地保护带来了巨大的现实压力,一定程度上威胁着国家的粮食安全。面对中国城市用地规模不断扩张的态势,研究城市用地规模的合理程度,无论是对引导土地市场,还是在规划层面上进行城市用地规模科学决策都具有十分重要的意义。许多学者针对中国城市用地规模的合理度问题开展了卓有成效的研究,然而从地价与城市用地规模融合角度的研究尚未系统进行。根据城市土地竟租理论,城市地价和城市用地规模通过土地竟租曲线紧密地联系在一起。城市地价与城市用地规模本质上为地价的资本化量与其空间分布的对应关系,两者是城市发展过程中所表现出来的相辅相成的两种运动形式。一方面,城市地价随着区位的不同而发生变化,并随着土地规划对城市用地的总供给量限制而受到制约；另一方面,城市用地规模在受到规划约束的同时,更多的是伴随地价的变化而达到市场均衡,即实现城市的合理用地规模。从城市土地竞租理论出发,本研究将城市地价组成因子作为中间影响过程,根据城市地价与城市用地规模之间所呈现出的特性,运用结构方程模型(SEM)方法,验证了城市地价与城市用地规模的联动性以及城市地价组成因子与城市用地规模合理度之间的对应关系。研究表明,城市土地区位条件、城市土地开发强度、城市土地增值潜力这三个城市地价组成因子均对城市用地规模合理度产生了正向的直接影响；其中,城市土地增值潜力对城市用地规模的合理度影响效应最为明显(影响值达到0.73),其次是城市土地区位条件的直接影响效应(影响值为0.51),城市土地开发强度的影响效应则相对较弱。根据城市地价组成因子在验证中所体现出的数量化和方向性特征,分别从市场和规划角度提出加强城市用地规模合理度的政策建议,主要包括：(1)建立城市用地规模合理度预警机制,合理调控土地供给；(2)加强农地征收、土地使用权出让和流转的监督与市场化建设；(3)放眼全局,注重城市综合环境实力的提升；(4)合理引导土地开发,促进土地集约利用。通过地价和城市用地规模两者相对应的市场和规划这两个渠道进行相应的监测、引导和管理,促进土地资源的优化配置与城市的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban land use scale reflects urban society, economy, ecology integrated development conditions to a great extent, and its rationality manifests the degree of urban development’s healthy directly, which has more direct relationship with cities’, regions’even country’s sustainable development question under the situation of huge population and relatively inadequate land resources which is one of China’s fundamental national conditions. Presently, China has entered the speedway of urbanization, the rise of urban land use scale and the protection of farmland has bring China huge realistic pressure, which in the certain extent is threatening our nation’s food security. Facing the tendency that our cities’ land use scale expands unceasingly, it has the very vital significance to study urban land use scale’s developing conditions as well as its rationality degree which would guide the land market, and especially do good to scientific decision-makings of urban land use scale from the view of planning.Many scholars have conducted fruitful research in view of urban land use scale’s rationality of our country, however, the researches from the angle of land price and the urban land use scale’s fusion are still not carried on systematically. According to urban land bid rent theory, urban land price and urban land use scale relate closely in together via land bid rent curve. The relationship of urban land price and urban land use scale are the capitalized quantity of urban land price and its corresponding spatial distribution essentially, both are two kinds of movement forms which displays complements one another in urban developmental process.On one hand, urban land price differs along with location’s change, and receives the restriction from land use planning’s total supply capacity limit of urban use land; On the other hand, while urban land use scale receives the planning restraint, it’s much more obvious that it follows land price’s change to achieve market equilibrium, which also means urban rational land use scale’s realization.This paper embarks from urban land bid rent theory, and takes the factors of urban land price as mediate influences; based on the features between urban land price and urban land use scale, using the method of structural equation modeling (SEM) to confirm the linkage between urban land price and urban land use scale as well as the corresponding relationships between the factors of urban land price and urban land use scale’s rationality. According to the result of this research, urban land location conditions, the intensity of urban land development, and urban land increment potential, all of the three factors of urban land price have had the forward immediate influence to the rationality of urban land use scale. And the result also shows that urban land increment potential has the most obvious effect to the rationality of urban land use scale (the value is 0.73), the second effect to the rationality of urban land use scale comes from urban land location conditions (the value is 0.51), and the intensity of urban land development’s influence effect is relatively weaker (the value is 0.38). By the factors of urban land price’s quantifiable and directive characteristics which are shown during the confirmation, give the policy suggestions that aim to raise the rationality of urban land use scale from both market and planning’ angles separately. The suggestion mainly includes the following content:(1) establish the early warning mechanism for the rationality of urban land use scale, and regulate the land supplies reasonably; (2) strengthen the surveillance and marketability construction of rural land expropriation and assignment & transfer of the right to the use of the state-owned land in the urban areas; (3) take a broad view at the overall situation, and pay great attention to the promotion of urban comprehensive environment strengths; (4) give a reasonable guidance of land development for enhance urban land intensive use. By way of carrying on corresponding monitor, guidance and management via the two channels of markets and plannings, it would promote land resource’s optimized disposition and urban sustainable development.更多还原