【作者】 刘爽；

【导师】 唐丽敏；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,现代物流业已经成为中国国民经济发展的重要产业。从发达国家的经验来看,物流业的发展与经济发展之间存在着相互促进的关系：当经济获得长足发展时,会对城市的物流产生巨大的需求,并促使与物流相关联的交通运输、仓储配送和邮电通信等产业有较快的发展。相反,区域物流业不断的发展,在改变经济增长方式的同时,对金融业、保险业、信息业、旅游业等相关第三产业的发展有着强劲的关联。因而,确定物流产业的支柱性产业地位,促进其充分科学的发展,进而带动地区经济的腾飞是非常有意义的。而从整体上来看,物流产业与区域产业结构优化之间形成了复杂的反馈系统：物流业既是产业结构的组成部分,受其他产业的制约而发展；同时又对促进经济发展、调整产业结构起着至关重要的作用。在这个系统中,存在了包括人、政府、环境等在内的因素,这些内在因素是动态的且互相影响,只有这些内在因素相互协调好,整个系统才能向更好的方向发展。基于此,本文选取了擅长处理复杂系统问题的方法——系统动力学方法,构筑区域物流业与产业结构优化的系统动力学模型。本文选取具有典型重工业结构的东北地区作为实例,对所建立的物流业与产业结构优化的系统动力学模型进行验证。通过模型的模拟,分析该区域物流业发展存在的问题,以及物流业各种运输方式的投资对区域GDP及三次产业产值的贡献度,进而提出了加大陆路和仓储、邮电业基础设施设备投资的比重以促进区域经济更快更好发展的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, logistics based on modern technology has become a dominated industry in Chinese national economic structure. As learning from developed countries’ experience, mutual reinforcement relationship exists between the development of logistics industry and overall economy. Rapid developing in economy accordingly would bring an urgent demand for civil logistics, and thus stimulate growth in the relevant industries, such as transportation, warehousing, distribution, communication and postal. On the contrary, as being in the forward part of the industry chain, the development of logistics industry will change the mode of economic growth, as well as the strong association with the insurance industry, information industry, tourism and so on. Thus, it is critical to make to logistics industry as a pillar position to fully development.From an overall perspective, a complex feedback system is shaped between logistics industry and regionally optimized industrial structure. Logistics industry, as an integral part of the industrial structure, is coherently stricted by other industries as well as plays a crucial role in promoting and adjusting industrial structure. In this system, there are factors like individuals, government environment and others, all of which are bonded to affect each other. The system can not develop into the better direction only when all of these internal factors coordinate well. Based on that, system dynamics, which is considered smart at dealing with complex systems problems, has been chosen as methodology in the paper to build system dynamics model of regional logistics industry and industrial structure optimization.Due to possess characteristic of heavy industry, the northeast region in China has been selected as the research object in the paper, which is aimed at verifying the model built on the logistics industry and structurally optimized industry by the method of system dynamics. By model simulation, the issue of development in regional logistics is able to be analyzed, as well as the calculation for the diverse contribution to GDD from various transportation investments is achievable. Thus, strategic recommendations are proposed on how to enforce the investment proportion in land transport, warehousing, postal infrastructure in order to stimulate the regional economy.更多还原