【作者】 刘伟伟；

【导师】 肖贵蓉；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 旅游管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 目前,旅游逐渐成为人们休闲的主要方式之一,引起旅游市场需求的逐渐增加。同时,旅游业的发展具有很强的外部作用,使得旅游项目吸引了较多的投资者,造成了旅游市场的竞争。而旅游的发展需要很多部门、行业之间的协调和配合,旅游项目的收益将受很多外部因素的影响,具有一定的风险性。所以,面对激烈的市场竞争和收益的风险性,旅游项目投资需要利用更符合实际的决策方法。本文的主要研究内容包括介绍期权博弈的基本思想和分析步骤,指出因为分析时模型的复杂性等原因,导致在实际应用中受到限制。但是期权博弈的思想仍可为决策提供一种新的思路,并在许多领域得到了应用。鉴于该方法在旅游项目投资中很少涉及,本文集中探讨了旅游投资项目与一般投资项目的共性和特殊之处,并分析了旅游项目建设可能存在的风险。并在其他学者研究的基础之上,考虑旅游项目建设时间的情况下,构建了投资成本不对称的双寡头竞争企业之间的期权博弈模型。最后,以长江三峡风景区入口区为实例,研究期权博弈方法在旅游项目决策中的应用。通过文献和实证的研究,本文研究的主要结论是:旅游投资项目具有很强的依赖性、关联性、收益的季节性以及受区位影响等特点。同时项目建设中还面对资源整合、旅游规划和财务等风险,使得旅游项目的未来市场具有很高的敏感性,导致收益的不确定性。又因为旅游需求的逐渐增加和投资的较强外部性,引起旅游市场的竞争。所以,期权博弈理论可以应用于旅游项目的开发决策之中。然而对于具体的旅游项目应用,期权博弈方法还存在一些不足。首先,任何旅游项目投资都会产生很明显的外部性,所以投资成本的大小与竞争者的投资策略具有一定的关系,这就使得在项目决策过程中,特别是模型的建立,需要考虑投资成本的不确定性。但是,变量的增加会引起模型复杂程度的提高,又在一定程度上限制了期权博弈方法的应用。其次,地理位置相近的旅游产品,通过共同的宣传可以获得更高的知名度,并可降低各自的成本,体现出与竞争者之间合作的益处。特别是对于新开发的旅游项目来说,因为较远的市场对旅游地并不了解,旅游宣传的成本可能较大,更能体现出与竞争者之间合作的好处。而期权博弈方法在分析项目的投资决策时,没有考虑到在某一方面与竞争者合作对策略选择的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, tourism is becoming one of the main ways for people to relax, and tourism market demand is increasing . At the same time, the development of tourism has a strong external effects. Tourism project has attracted more investors, causing the competition in tourism market. However,the development of tourism needs coordination and cooperation among many departments and industries, which means the earning of tourism projects will be subject to many external factors with a certain degree of risk. Therefore, in the face of fierce market competition and revenue risks, investment in tourism projects need to use a more realistic decision-making methods.This article aims at introducting the basic idea of the option game and analysis steps,pointing out that as the complexity of the model analysis and other reasons, it has many limits in the practical pplication.However, the idea of option game ideas also can provide a new idea for decision-making, and has been applied in many field, but investment in tourism is rarely involved.Secondly, the paper sets out a simple definition of tourism investment projects, as well as tsimilarities and differences with other investment projects,and analyses the risk of tourism projects. Thirdly, based on previous studies, and considering the time of project construction,the paper builds the option game model of asymmetric duopoly competition between enterprises. Finally, with the Three Gorges scenic entrance area as an example, the application of option game in tourism projects decision-making is examined.Based on the research of literature and empirical studies, the research comes to the following conclusions. Tourism project has some characteristics ,such as strong dependence, relevance, seasonal revenue and the impact on the location. While projects are also faced with resource integration, tourism planning and financial risks which make the future market under high sensitivity lead to earnings uncertainty. At the same time, the gradual increase of travel demand and strong externalities in investment cause tourism market competition.Therefore, the option game theory can be applied to the decision-making of tourism, though there are still some inadequacies. First, any investment in tourism projects will have very significant externalities. The size of the investment cost and the investment strategy of its competitors have a certain relationship, which makes the process of investment in the project, particularly the establishment of the model need to consider the investment cost of uncertainty. However, the increase of variable will cause the complexity of model which will limite the application of the option game method to some extent.Secondly, the geographical proximity of tourism products can receive higher visibility, and reduce their costs through joint advocacy ,which reflect the benefits of cooperation between competitors. Especially for the newly developed tourism projects, because its relatively distant markets do not fully understand to the tourism ,the cost of tourism promotion may be greater and reflect the benefits of cooperation between competitors. However, analysis of the option game in the project investment decisions does not consider the impact of cooperation with its competitors in the strategic options.更多还原