【作者】 张弦；

【导师】 严平； 吴必文；

【作者基本信息】 安徽农业大学 ， 气象学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 本文根据合肥市及郊县(肥东、肥西、长丰)气象台站常年地面观测资料以及合肥市城市小气候观测资料,对合肥市区热岛特征进行综合分析研究,并通过对合肥城市化的常年统计资料和气象资料与合肥市热岛强度之间做相关性分析,得出影响城市热岛的主要因子,并分析其具体影响。本研究主要得出以下的结果:1.合肥城市热岛的特征:合肥市从1965年开始出现持续的城市热岛效应,热岛强度呈上升趋势,其增加率为0.1℃/10年;四季均有城市热岛出现,冬季热岛强度最大,平均值达到0.47℃,冬季热岛的增加趋势比较平缓。夏季热岛强度最小,平均值为0.22℃,春秋季节热岛强度的平均值分别为0.33℃,0.38℃。秋季的热岛强度变化幅度较大;就一天而言,夜间的热岛强度要大于白天,夜间平均热岛强度为1.0℃,白天为0.5℃。2.合肥的城市化进程主要体现在四个方面:(1)合肥市的人口城市化。非农业人口占总人口的比重逐年增长,年平均增长率为2.6%;(2)合肥市的经济城市化。人均GDP的年增长率达到了19.1%,从1978年30年以来,呈指数增长,拟合曲线:y = 548.2e0.1894x,R2 = 0.9546;(3)合肥市的社会城市化。合肥市建筑总产值呈逐年增长趋势,年平均增长率为32.6%。拟合指数方程为:y = 14511x1.6124,R2 = 0.8975。城市建成区绿化面积的年平均增长率为11.9%;(4)合肥市生活方式城市化,市区用电量的年平均增长率为9.9%。家用电器的年平均增长率达到了30%。3.对合肥市与城市热岛有关的六项气象要素进行灰色关联度分析。合肥城市热岛强度与风速、相对湿度的相关性较大,相关系数分别为0.5109,0.5058。具体分析合肥市一天中热岛强度与风速呈负相关,其公式为:y = -0.1524x2 - 0.0498x + 1.8553,R2 = 0.3027,通过了0.01的显著性检验,说明合肥市风速对热岛强度有缓解作用。4.对合肥市城市化的12项要素与热岛强度进行灰色关联度分析,合肥城市热岛强度与非农业人口比重、年末总人口、建成区绿化面积、家用电器、人均生产总值、发电量的相关性较大,相关系数均大于0.63。与第二产业、工业增加值、第三产业的相关性也较好,相关系数均大于0.6。与国有资产投资总额、建筑业总产值、汽车的相关性较小,相关系数均小于0.6,并依次减小。5.具体分析合肥市的热岛强度与城市化各个要素的相关性。城市热岛强度与非农业人口的关系,拟合对数方程:y = 0.2107Ln(x) - 0.5545,R2 = 0.2202。通过了0.01的显著性检验。合肥城市绿化面积增加率与合肥市热岛强度具有一定的负相关,相关性不显著。根据2008年5月31日对合肥市的市府广场、环城公园、芜湖路设点观测气温的日变化。绿化水平较高的环城公园和芜湖路的日最高温度要比市府广场低1.0℃左右,说明城市绿化带有明显降温作用。合肥市的热岛强度与工业增加值、第三产业、家用电器、发电量进行相关性分析,都通过了0.01的显著性检验。说明合肥城市化对热岛强度的影响显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, we studied the characteristic of the urban heat island in Hefei, according to the observed conventional data in the urban and suburb station of Hefei and the data of set ground sites. We got the correlation analysis between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and the urbanism statistic data in Hefei, and got main factors that affect urban heat island and analyzed the reasons. The research has mainly done the below research work:1. The characteristic of urban heat island in Hefei is illustrated as fellows. The urban heat island in Hefei began in 1965. The year change character is increasing trend by 0.1℃/10 years. The season change character is that urban heat island appears in four seasons. The urban heat island intensity in winder is the most, and the average is 0.47℃. But the increasing trend is gentle, and the peak of subtraction is little in winter. The urban heat island intensity is the lowest in summer, and the average is 0.22℃. The urban heat island intensity in spring and fall is 0.33℃and 0.38℃respectively. The increasing trend is obvious in fall. In a day, the night urban heat island intensity is larger than the day. The urban heat island intensity in night and day is 1.0℃and 0.5℃respectively.2. The urbanization of Hefei is illustrated as fellows. The population Urbanization reflects that the rate of non-agriculture population is increasing by 2.6%. The economy Urbanization reflects that the rate of the per-capital GDP is increasing by 19.1%. Since 1978, the rate is exponential growth and the fitting curve equation is y = 548.2e0.1894x,R2 = 0.9546. The average rate of the total output value of the construction industry is increasing by32.6%. Since 1978, the rate is exponential growth and the fitting curve equation is y = 14511x1.6124,R2 = 0.8975.The society Urbanization reflects that the rate of urban greening is increasing by 11.9%. The lifestyle Urbanization reflects that the average rate of electricity consumption is increasing by 9.9% and the average rate of household appliances increasing by 30%.3. We made grey correlation between the urban heat island and meteorological factors in Hefei. There is significant relation between the urban heat island intensity and wind speed and relative humidity in Hefei. The correlation coefficients are 0.5109 and 0.5058 respectively. The relation between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and wind speed is negative correlation, the equation is y = -0.0779x + 2.5865. Wind speed relief the urban heat island. The relation between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and relative humidity is correlation, and the equation is y = 0.0011x3 - 0.236x2 + 16.879x - 400.67.4. We made grey correlation between the urban heat island and urbanization factors in Hefei. There is significant relation between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and the rate of non-agriculture population , year-end population , area of urban greening , household appliances , per capital GDP and generated energy. The correlation coefficient is above 0.63. There is relation between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and secondary industry, tertiary industry and industrial added value. The correlation coefficient is above 0.6. There is poor relation between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and the gross investment of national assets, the construction industry of gross output and vehicle quantity. The correlation coefficient is down 0.6 and decreasing.5. There is significant relation between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and the rate of non-agriculture population. The log fitting curve equation is y = 0.3011Ln(x) - 0.5716,R2 = 0.2202 through a 0.01 test of significance. There is correlation between the increasing rate of the city green area and the heat island intensity in Hefei,The relation between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and the increasing rate of urban greening is negative correlation, but the correlation is not significant. According to the observational data on May thirty-one 2008, the daily mean temperature maximum in Wuhu Road and Huancheng Park was higher 1.0℃than in Shifuguangchang, which shows that the urban green belt has significant cooling effect. There is relation between the urban heat island intensity in Hefei and household appliances, generated energy, industrial added value and tertiary industry. The tests past the 0.01 significance test. It shows that the hefei urbanization significantly effects the urban heat island intensity.更多还原