【作者】 张玉；

【导师】 祁春节；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 产业经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 中国是世界柑橘原产地之一,也是世界第一大柑橘种植国和第二大生产国。柑橘是中国栽培面积最广、经济地位最重要的果树之一。2007年中国柑橘产量已达到1961.71万吨,占世界柑橘总产的比例为17%左右,但中国不是柑橘鲜果出口大国。中国柑橘鲜食果品90%以上集中在国内市场销售,所以其出口还有很大的提升空间。拓展国际市场、扩大柑橘鲜果出口对于解决“三农”问题具有现实意义。柑橘在国际市场上的竞争力取决于柑橘的品质和出售价格。一方面,提高柑橘品质的努力会反应在柑橘生产成本水平及其结构中;另一方面,柑橘出售价格的主要构成主体是其生产成本。生产成本越高,出售价格也会相应变高。既然柑橘的生产成本对其出口具有重要的影响,那么就有必要在学术上探讨以下问题:在农业生产资料和人工费用快速上涨的今天,柑橘的生产成本结构发生了怎样的变化?我国不同地区的柑橘生产成本有着怎样的差异?柑橘生产成本对其出口的影响到底有多大?作者围绕以上现实问题进行了比较深入的研究。论文按照逻辑顺序分为6章。研究内容及其结论如下:第1章引出问题,对国内外相关研究做出综述,确定研究内容、研究方法和技术路线,指出本研究可能的创新之处和存在的不足。第2章界定柑橘生产成本的概念和构成,并在此基础上核算中国柑橘生产成本,分析柑橘单位生产成本变动和结构变动,总结柑橘生产成本变动的规律及原因。研究表明:我国柑橘单位面积成本水平呈现随时间变化而持续上升的趋势,另外,物质与服务费用和人工成本是柑橘生产成本的最主要构成部分,而直接费用是物质与服务费用的最主要的构成部分。第3章首先选取中部地区的湖北、湖南两省和东部地区的浙江、福建和广东三省做为研究样本,采用glm过程对各省柑橘生产成本的非均衡数据进行方差分析。然后基于面板数据设计成本差异分解模型,确定造成地区间生产成本差异的主要因素,并比较分析造成中部和东部产橘大省生产成本差异的主要原因。研究表明:不同地区影响柑橘生产成本的主要因素不同。一些相同的因素在两个地区各自的模型估计结果中其弹性系数呈现大小不一,符号不一的情况。我国的柑橘生产还处于小规模经营状态,人工成本、化肥投入费用对两个地区的生产成本都起着很大的作用。第4章对单位生产成本与出口价格进行描述性统计,进一步使用单位根检验和ARIMA模型分析柑橘生产成本序列的平稳性和趋势,使用小波分解和多尺度分析研究柑橘出口价格序列的波动特征,并比较分析两个序列的频谱特征。分析表明:尽管两个序列的频谱图的幅度有一定差别,但它们的频谱图特征类似,两个时间序列都存在一个波动异常点,除此波动异常点之外,波动幅度都比较稳定。另外,出口价格的波动较生产成本剧烈。第5章基于ARMAX模型建立误差修正模型(ECM)测算柑橘生产成本对其出口价格的影响,进一步结合多尺度分析和VAR模型提出多分辨VAR(MVAR)的建模思路,并对柑橘出口价格进行多分辨脉冲响应与多分辨方差分解,以分析柑橘生产成本对其出口价格的冲击作用。研究表明:生产成本对出口价格影响显著,通过降低生产成本可以降低我国柑橘的出口价格。生产成本与出口价格之间存在协整关系,可以通过控制影响生产成本的因素来调节出口价格,避免其变动过大。第6章在总结前文的基础上,从营销理念和营销战略、科技研发与转化、机械化作业、投入结构、政府支持、管理与出口渠道等方面提出降低生产成本,促进柑橘出口的对策建议。本研究可能的创新点在于:第一,在柑橘生产成本研究方面,已有的研究只是把中国的柑橘生产成本与国外的柑橘成本进行简单的列表对比,对成本变动的深层原因及其规律研究很少。本文采用glm过程分析了我国柑橘生产成本的区域差异,并建立了基于面板数据的成本差异模型,分析了造成生产成本区域差异的主要原因。第二,在生产成本对出口影响研究方面,尽管研究生产成本与贸易的理论较多,可以追溯到亚当·斯密的绝对成本理论,但都是从生产成本的角度探讨贸易的可行性。本文基于ARMAX建立了ECM模型,量化了生产成本对出口贸易的影响程度。第三,从研究方法方面,传统的VAR建模理论存在无法解释蕴含在变量内部的多时间尺度信息的缺陷。为了讨论经济变量之间多尺度行为,描述变量间的影响在不同时间尺度的信息,将小波分析与VAR建模理论相结合给出了多尺度VAR建模的思路,建立了多分辨VAR模型,从而克服了原有模型的缺陷,能够更加细致地捕获经济变量在不同时间尺度的联系。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is one of the original countries of citrus and it’s also the largest grower and the second largest producer in the world. Citrus is one of the fruit that have the widest planting areas and the most critical economic status in China. Citrus production has attained 19.62 million tons in 2007, which accounts for about 17% of the world total citrus production. But China is not a big exporter of fresh citrus, about 90% of China’s fresh citrus products is sold in domestic market, so there is great export potential for China’s fresh citrus. Expanding international market and enlarging fresh citrus export have practical significance to solve the problem concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers.Competitiveness of citrus in international market depends on its quality and selling price. On the one hand, efforts to improve citrus quality will reflect in the level of citrus production cost and its structure. On the other hand, the main composition subject of citrus selling price is the production cost. The higher the production cost is, the higher the selling price is. Since production cost of citrus has great influence on its export, we should academically discuss following questions: With the rapid rising of cost on agricultural means of production and labor, how has the structure of citrus production cost changed? What are the differences of citrus production cost in different regions? How great is the influence of citrus production cost on its export? The author studies the above questions in detail.According to logical order, this study is divided into six chapters, each of which is consisted of certain contents and conclusions.ChapterⅠraises questions. The relevant researches at home and abroad are reviewed so as to determine the content, the method and the technical route in this research and point out the possible innovation and shortcoming.ChapterⅡdefines the conception of citrus production cost and its composition, and the computing method of China’s citrus production cost is introduced on the base of the previous work. It analyzes the change of production cost per unit area and the change of structure as well as the law and reasons of the change of the production cost. Research shows that the level of China’s citrus production cost per unit area is increasing. In addition, the material and service cost and the labor cost are the most important integrant parts of citrus production cost, and direct cost is the most important part of material and service cost.ChapterⅢchooses Hubei, Hunan in central China and Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangzhou in eastern China as samples, and uses glm process to do variance decomposition on disequilibrium data of production cost of the provinces. Then, it designs decomposed model of cost difference on the basis of panel data to confirm the main factors that resulting in different production cost in different regions. It also analyzes the main reason resulting in different production cost in the main citrus production provinces in the Center and East of China. Research shows that different regions have different important factors that affect production cost. Elastic coefficients of parts of the same factors got from the estimation of the two regions’ models present different sizes and different signs. China’s citrus production are in small scale, labor cost and fertilizer input play an important role in production cost of both the two regions.ChapterⅣanalyzes production cost per unit production by using descriptive statistics and further uses unit root test and ARIMA model to analyze the stationarity and trend of the series of citrus production cost. It uses wavelet decomposition and multi-scale analysis to study volatile characteristic of citrus export price serial, and compares the two serials’ spectrum characteristic. Research shows that though there are some differences in the amplitude of the two series’ spectrum diagram, the spectrum characteristics of them are similar. Both of them have an abnormal volatile point and volatile range is stable except the abnormal point. In addition, volatility of export price is more severe than that of production cost.ChapterⅤestablishes ECM based on ARMAX to calculate the influence of citrus production cost on its export price and proposes modeling idea of multi-resolution VAR by combining multi-scale analysis and VAR model, then uses multi-resolution impulse response and multi-resolution variance decomposition to analyze the shock of citrus production cost on its export price. Research shows that influence of production cost on export price is significant, so we can decrease our citrus export price through decreasing its production cost. There is co-integration relationship between citrus production cost and its export price, so we can adjust citrus export price to avoid fierce volatile by controlling factors affecting citrus production cost.ChapterⅥproposes suggestions to decrease production cost and improve citrus export from the perspective of marketing philosophy, marketing strategy, technology research and its transformation, mechanical work, input structure, government support, management, export channels and discusses next work we need to do.The possible innovative points of the research embody in the following three aspects.First, seeing from the aspect of research on citrus production cost, previous researches just list citrus production cost of China and foreign countries in tables and compare them in a direct way, there are few references to study the profound reason and the law of the change of citrus production cost. The paper uses glm process to analyze the difference of China’s citrus production cost in different regions and establishes decomposed model of cost difference on the basis of panel data to analyze the main reason that resulting in different production cost in different regions.Second, seeing from the influence of production cost on export, there are many theories about production cost and trade that can trace back to Adam Smith’s theory of absolute cost, but all of them are groping for feasibility of trade from the perspective of production cost. The paper establishes ECM based on ARMAX to quantify the influence of citrus production cost on its export price.Third, from the perspective of research method, traditional VAR modeling theory has the defect that it can not effectively utilize the multiple time scale information contained in the inner of variables. In order to discuss multi-scale behavior among economic variables and capture variables’ information in different time scale, multi-resolution VAR model, as know as MVAR has been introduced and combined with wavelet analysis and theory of VAR modeling to overcome the defect of traditional model and can capture the relationship between variables in different time scale in detail.更多还原