情境与反馈信息在决策行为上的作用

【作者】 王毅；

【导师】 游旭群；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 应用心理学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 预期后悔情绪是决策后悔理论研究中的一个重要课题,有关预期后悔的相关研究结果表明个体在未来可能体验到的后悔情绪可以通过反馈信息的操纵得以实现和强化,并影响着个体的决策行为,使得个体做出后悔最小化的决策。然而国内有关反馈信息与决策行为关系的研究并不多见,预期后悔的情境因素也值得我们进一步思考和探讨。因此,情境与反馈信息因素对于决策的作用与影响成为了决策行为研究与决策理论模型建立的重点问题。本研究通过纸笔实验的方法,合理的设计并构建了三个情境不同的金融决策任务,并结合反馈信息的操纵。旨在通过不同情境下,反馈信息、预期后悔与决策行为间关系的分析,验证预期后悔理论在国内的适应性;以及不同的情境下,风险厌恶与后悔厌恶的关系与表现。尝试解释后悔与决策研究中情境因素的作用,并阶段性的总结出国人在金融决策领域中的一般决策行为模式。实验一采用经典的抽象决策情境任务,3×2的混合实验设计,通过反馈信息的操纵我们发现,有关风险态度的结论与国内基本一致,中国被试在金融决策领域中表现出强烈的冒险精神;信息匮乏的反馈条件并没有促使多数被试做出后悔最小化的决策。实验二采用改编的金融投资情境任务,相同的实验设计,进一步证实了国人在低风险收益与确定收益间的风险寻求行为。另外,我们发现,丰富的反馈信息条件虽然没能影响被试的决策行为,但是改变被试的风险态度,风险态度与行为间表现出了不一致。实验三采用自己设计的抽彩赌博情境,结合反馈信息的操纵。3×2的混合实验结果表明,抽彩赌博情境下的反馈信息操纵较为成功,多数被试的决策行为发生了反转,证明了后悔厌恶效应的存在。最后,结合每部分实验中的纵向结果比较分析我们发现,情境因素中,情境生动性不是产生预期后悔情绪的必要因素,而备择项的接近程度是影响后悔情绪与决策行为的一个重要情境因素。国人在金融领域的收益域决策更可能采用的是一种结合“心理距离”和“更重要维度”假设的模型进行认知、评估,进而选择的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Anticipated regret is an important topic in regret theory of decision-making research, previous findings in anticipated regret show that the individual may experience and strengthen regret through manipulating the feedback information in the decision context, at the same time, decision-making behavior of individuals will be influenced to minimize future regrets. However, the relevant study on the relationship between feedback and decision-making behavior are rare, also the situational factors in anticipated regret is worthy of our thinking and to explore further. Therefore, it is a key issue to research the influence of situational factors and feedback to understand the decision-making behavior and the decision theory model.In this study we used the paper-pencil test, designed three different context of financial decision-making tasks, combined with the manipulation of feedback. Through analysis the relationship between different situations, feedback, anticipated regret and behavior, we want to verify the adaptability of the regret theory at home; and under different contexts, the performance and the relationship between risk aversion and regret aversion. Moreover, we try to explain the situational factors in regret and decision-making area, and sums up patterns of decision-making behavior in the financial decision-making field in stage.Experiment 1 used the decision-making context of an abstract task, 3×2 mixed experimental design. Through the manipulation of feedback, we found that the conclusions on risk attitude are basically consistent with the domestic, the Chinese subjects in the field of financial decision-making performance a strong spirit of adventure; feedback-poor conditions did not cause the majority of subjects made decision to minimize the regret.Experiment 2 used the financial investment task version, the same experimental design. Further evidence shows risk-seeking behavior between low-risk and sure. In addition, we found that feedback-rich conditions although did not affect the decision-making behavior, but change the risk attitude in test, risk attitudes and behavior have shown inconsistent.In experiments 3 we design a lottery gambling context, combined with the manipulation of feedback. 3×2 mixed experimental results show that lottery gambling feedback is successful manipulated in gambling context, the majority of subjects have taken place reverse in the decision-making, proving the existence of regret aversion effect. Finally, comparative analysising each part of results vertically, we found in different situation, the alternative closeness rather than the vividness as an important context factor to affect regret and decision-making behavior. Chinese subjects in the financial area are more likely to combinate "psychological distance" and "more important dimension" hypothesis in decision-making to cognitive, assessment, and choice.更多还原