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阿拉善腰坝绿洲地下水位动态及预测模型研究

Study on the Dynamic State of Groundwater and Prediction Model of Yaoba Oasis in Alashan

【作者】 李进

【导师】 李佩成;

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 , 环境科学, 2007, 硕士

【摘要】 阿拉善腰坝绿洲东屏贺兰山,西邻腾格里沙漠,是阿拉善左旗重要的粮食产地,随着人口的增多和开采量的逐年加大,社会经济的高速发展,由于地下水的过度开采,已经带来了地面沉降、水质污染、咸水入侵等一系列灾害,给农业经济的发展带来了严重影响,为缓解和消除这些灾害,阿拉善(SEE)生态协会委托长安大学“国际干旱半干地区水资源与环境研究培训中心(中德合作)”进行《阿拉善腰坝绿洲水资源承载力与可持续发展》的研究,其成果为当地的持续发展提供了科学依据。本文根据在阿拉善腰坝绿洲的考察和野外试验,以及影响绿洲地下水位的各种因素,结合当地的观测资料,针对地下水开发利用出现的一些环境问题,客观地分析了地下水位动态特征规律。腰坝绿洲内几乎不存在地表水,因而腰坝绿洲的水资源主要是贺兰山区补给的地下水。阿拉善腰坝绿洲地下水位受降雨、蒸发和开采量的影响,其中由于腰坝绿洲作为以消耗存储量为主,缺乏补给的消耗型盆地的一部分,其动态变化最主要是受当地人工开采的影响。腰坝绿洲地下水水位的变化主要依不同季节的农灌用水而呈现有规律的变化,三月水位最高,七月水位最低。腰坝绿洲地下水位的年际变化,主要表现为随着开采量增加地下水位持续下降。根据观测井地下水位的资料,使用动态分析法,腰坝绿洲地下水可开采量定为2200万m~3/年为宜。用BP神经网络结合遗传算法以允许开采量进行的地下水位的预测结果表明,其2020年地下水位预测值在允许开采量确定的前提下,不同的降雨频率,相较于1983年水位有所下降,但相较1997年水位值基本维持不变,其水位的预测值满足模型精度的要求,结果符合当地的实际情况,因此可以应用于生产实践当中。这个结果同时表明,只要控制当地地下水的开采量为允许开采量时,当地地下水水基本稳定,该模型具有较好的应用前景。

【Abstract】 Alashan YaoBa oasis closes to the east of the Helan Mountain and is west to the Tenggeli Desert. It is an important grain production area .With the increase in the population and exploitation , the high-speed development of social economy. The excessive exploitation of the groundwater leads to a series of calamities, for example surface subsidence , water pollution , salt water and so on .It has brought serious influence to development of agricultural economy. In order to dispel and alleviate these calamities, Alashan ecology society entrusted the international study and training centre of water resource and environment for dry and half-dry area(China cooperated with Germany)to do research on <<the support for water resource and continued development of water resource in Alashan YaoBa oasis >>.This paper has analyzed the dynamic characteristic law of the groundwater table objectively , according to investigation and wild experiment for Alashan YaoBa oasis and all kinds of factor that influenced water level of groundwater in Alashan YaoBa oasis, combining the local observation materials, aiming at some environmental problems on exploitation and utilization of the groundwater resource.There is little surface water in the YaoBa oasis, therefore the water resource of YaoBa oasis is mainly the groundwater that supplies from Helan Mountain area. Water table in Alashan YaoBa oasis is influenced by rainfall、evaporating and exploiting quantity, among them because YaoBa oasis regards as a part of the consumption type basin that mainly consumes the storing amount and lacks the supply, its dynamic change is mainly influenced by exploiting artificially by the locality. YaoBa oasis mainly has regular change in accordance with different seasonal the water of agricultural irritating under the influence with the groundwater of water level and the water level is the highest in March, the water level is the lowest in July. The annual change of YaoBa oasis water table shows mainly as to increase the water table to drop with the exploiting amount continuously. The suitable exploiting amount of groundwater in Yao dam oasis is at last determined as 22 million cubic meter /the annual.The prediction result of water table of groundwater that combines the hereditary algorithm in BP neural network with allowed exploiting amount 22 million cubic meter /the annual explains different frequency of rainfall drops compared to the water table in 1983,but it remains same capered to water table in 1997 under the premise of predicted the water table in 2020 to be allowed exploiting. The predicted value of its water level meets the request for the precision of models an the result accords with the local actual conditions, so it can be applied to production practices. At the same time the result indicates that the local groundwater keeps stable so long as controlling the local exploitation amount of groundwater in allowing the exploiting amount. The result proves that this model has better application prospect . And it provides the corresponding protective measure in developing and utilizing to Alashan Yao dam oasis’s groundwater . It also offers scientific basis for rational utilization of the water resource.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 长安大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2010年 07期
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