【作者】 何春花；

【导师】 李炳军；

【作者基本信息】 河南农业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 农业是国民经济的基础,而粮食则是基础中的基础。河南省作为全国第一农业大省、粮食生产大省,河南同时也是全国的人口大省,粮食生产的波动必然引起粮食的安全问题,引起河南经济乃至国民的波动,因此,河南省粮食安全问题在中国粮食安全的问题上具有不容忽视的地位。分析影响河南省粮食产量的主要因素,最大潜力的挖掘其生产潜力,可以为国家粮食稳定做出更大的贡献。本文首先回顾了改革开放以来河南省粮食生产状况,分析了河南省存在的土地的数量和质量的下降、农业基础设施建设滞后、农业科技研究和服务体系薄弱、农民种粮积极性不高以及从事粮食生产的主要劳动力素质下降等问题。然后介绍了主成分分析的原理和步骤,利用该原理,对河南省粮食产量,分成1979-1989,1990-1999,2000-2007年三个阶段,分别选取了10个或者12个影响因素进行了主成分分析,得到了各个阶段的前几位影响因素。接下来系统介绍了邓氏关联度、B型关联度、T型关联度、斜率关联度等,接下来建立了邓氏关联度的计算模型,利用该模型,对三个时期的影响因素计算了关联度,并进行了关联度排序。并对比了三个时期的因素排序,找出了影响因素并对一些因素的地位变化进行了分析。此外,对1990-2007年河南省粮食产量,首先选择了粮食播种面积、农田有效灌溉面积、农林牧渔总人数、农业机械总动力、化肥施用折纯量、农作物受灾面积这六个影响因素,建立双对数生产函数模型,经过模型检验和分析,最终选定去除农业机械总动力后的五个影响因素的模型为最优模型。对这五个因素,分为粮食生产快速发展时期、下滑期和恢复增长期分别计算了各个影响因素的贡献率,并对三个阶段的结果归一化后进行了对比,得到了粮食播种面积、化肥施用量和农林牧渔总人数是贡献率位于前三位的影响因素。最后,针对河南省粮食产量的主要影响因素,提出了严格控制耕地数量、大力加强农田水利建设和促进农村劳动力转移等建议。由于粮食系统是个十分复杂的系统,影响粮食产量的因素众多,本文对影响河南省粮食生产的影响因素分别通过主成分分析和灰色关联分析,得到了1979-1989,1990-1999,2000-2007年三个阶段的主要影响因素。建立了1990-2007年河南省的粮食产量与其影响因素的生产函数模型并分时段计算了各个影响因素的贡献率。结果表明河南省粮食生产仍处于传统农业阶段,主要依靠常规投入要素来增加产量。需加大科技投入,依靠科技进步的力量和机械化程度的提高,来实现向现代农业的转变。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture is the base of national economy and grain is the base of foundation.Henan province as the first big agricultural and grain production area of our contry is the population large province. It is well known that shortage of grain can lead to chaos of economic developmentof Henan Province, or even China. So the food security problem of Hena province plays an important role in the grain production and circulation in China. The studies summed up by our predecessors manifest that the fluctuation of grain production in Hunan Province has exerted a tremendous influence to that of grain production in China. So the Study on the development trend of grain production and analysis of influencing factors in Henan Province will contribute much to the stability of national food to increase grain production stably.This paper first reviews the garin production history in Henan since the reform and open policy. The existence problems are such as: the decline of the quantity and quality of the land, poor constrction of agricultural infrastructure, lower farmers’ enthusiasm for planting grain crops and the descent quality trend of labour qualities.Second, it introduces the principle of principal component analysis and its modeling steps, and then uses it to analyze 10 or 12 influencing factors in Henan Province divided the total period into three stages: 1979 to 1989, 1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2007. And then this paper systematically introduces the principle and modeling steps of Deng’s correlation degree, the principle of B-type correlation degree, T-type correlation degree and slope correlation degree. Using the model of Deng’s correlation degree, we calculate the grey correlation degrees of three periods and get the main influence factors order. The factors of common, stable and big chnges are further analyzed. Then, when constructing the double logarithmic production model of Henna province from 1990 to 2007, we choose grain planting area, effective irrigation area, number of agricultural labor, total power of agricultural machinery, fertilizer consumption and disaster area of crops as the independent variables. After testing and analysizing the model, we choose the model of five variables removing total power of agricultural machinery as the optimal model. We divide the period of rapid growth in grain production, decline and recovery period, and then calculate the contribution rates respectively. The output of the three stages is compared after the contribution rates are normalized, and shows fertilizer consumption, grain planting area and number of agricultural labor rank the first three places.As the food system is a very complex one, there are too many influencing factors.With the help of principal component analysis and grey correlation analysis, the paper find the main influencing factors of garin production in Henan Province by dividing the total period into three stages: 1979 to 1989, 1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2007. In addition, it construcs the production model of Henna province from 1990 to 2007 between grain production and its main influencing factors. And the contribution rates are calculated respectively according to different period of time. The results show that the grain production in Henan province is still in the traditional agriculture stage, where to increase gain production mainly mainly relys on the increase of conventional input factors. With the development of science and technology and with the improving of mechanization, Henan should increase science and technology investment to achieve the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.更多还原